2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[Ntxw]

1994 is a good Eastern Pacific match too. That season features multiple storms tracking west through the Central Pacific, similar to how this year has behaved thus far.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ry_map.png

The 1994 El Nino did not take off until late September/early October. Took a long time to get going. Also not scientific but the list of names this year for the EPAC/ATL is the same list as 1994.

[stormlover2013]

2002 is the best match for this year

[Ntxw]

2002 is the best match for this year

Global SSTa, NAO, Pacific basin activity, and 500mb analogs matches up with 1994 the closest. 2002 is anecdotal but the numbers don't line up quite as close.

[cycloneye]

A reminder of how the 1994 analog season fared.

[stormlover2013]

Big joe: In addition pattern very much like analog year of 2002, that produced Lili and Isidore, Extensive discussion on weatherbell.com premium on how the US got off lucky and same kind of pattern warrants concern Could have been 2 major gulf hits in 10 days 2002
2002 a major analog year in our forecasts from spring, 1 of 4
Keep in mind that year also set a record the other way.. 2 cat 4s in the gulf within 10 days

[TheStormExpert]

2002 is the best match for this year

Global SSTa, NAO, Pacific basin activity, and 500mb analogs matches up with 1994 the closest. 2002 is anecdotal but the numbers don't line up quite as close.

Why is 2017 even considered an analog for this year?

[Ntxw]

2002 is the best match for this year

Global SSTa, NAO, Pacific basin activity, and 500mb analogs matches up with 1994 the closest. 2002 is anecdotal but the numbers don't line up quite as close.

https://images2.imgbox.com/2e/31/EThTdkGJ_o.png

Why is 2017 even considered an analog for this year?

Because it looks at the broader picture not just for a hurricane season for instance. All things considered globally. SSTa's in the Atlantic are not a good match to 2017 but higher latitudes 500mb pattern are not dissimilar. With a warming globe sometimes you will often see back to back years showing similarities despite quite opposite events such as Enso due to expanding hadley cells and SST increases. Even with a colder anomaly, that anomaly today is much warmer than actual SSTs back in 1994.

Analogs are not going to give you an exact path, only a stepping stone.

[CyclonicFury]

Based on CDAS data, the Atlantic MDR is now warmer than normal for the first time since mid-March. Much of the region is now warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.

[blp]

Good tweet by Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033338665274159109?s=20

[Hammy]

Good tweet by Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033338665274159109?s=20

Does this mean more west-based activity or simply the season coming in well below forecasts?

[gatorcane]

Looks warmer across the MDR between Lesser Antilles and Africa indeed:

[NDG]

SSTs from the NW Caribbean to the GOM to around the Bahamas are >30C, it will be interesting as the TWs start tracking over these very warm waters starting over the next few days.

[SoupBone]

Good tweet by Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033338665274159109?s=20

Does this mean more west-based activity or simply the season coming in well below forecasts?

I read this as troughs starting to come down in September/October, favoring eastern U.S. solutions. Honestly though, I always have a tough time reading and understanding Meteorology jargon (acronyms).

"Luckily, continued W-CP quasi-stationary forcing like we have now favors a complete 180 in the E US pattern by late Sept/Oct w/ big troughs over E US/Atlantic Canada."

[AutoPenalti]

Good tweet by Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033338665274159109?s=20

Does this mean more west-based activity or simply the season coming in well below forecasts?

TC’s will have a hard time developing in the MDR because of the sinking air and the mid levels being so dry.

[Ntxw]

Good tweet by Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033338665274159109?s=20

I think his tweet is implying that the expanded hadley cell will continue the dominance of dry air over the MDR at longer timescales. Weaker gradient of SSTs between the subtropical and TA (tropical atlantic). That's my interpretation of that tweet.

[MetroMike]

Good tweet by Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033338665274159109?s=20

I think his tweet is implying that the expanded hadley cell will continue the dominance of dry air over the MDR at longer timescales. Weaker gradient of SSTs between the subtropical and TA (tropical atlantic). That's my interpretation of that tweet.

Yes we are deciphering that. The word "locus" means a center or gathering area, and the word "ascent" of course means upward motion. In this case the SST's have little to say about favorable conditions in the TA.

[Steve]

Counter is the JMA model which was on weather bell’s Saturday summary showing a reversal of rising/sinking air patterns favoring much more upward motion in the Atlantic coming after a week to ten days. Bastardi thinks a pulse with up to 4 systems could be between September 1-15 (Ithink were his dates) obviously with ridging entrenched across the western Atlantic. Who knows after that, but I’d still bet on some October homespun action before whenever the season shuts down.

Stay tuned for the tropics revving up shortly is the message.

[tolakram]

Instability over the tropical Atlantic has improved somewhat.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro shows the Atlantic MDR opening up for business in the first week of September with much more favorable VP200 anomalies.

[gatorcane]

Another monster wave about to make the splash. Sooner or later you got to assume one of these waves will end up developing: