Ntxw wrote:LarryWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:Here is the May update of MSLP for ASO and wow,if this pans out MDR / Caribbean / GOM will shut down. But in 2017 it had this and we know and I endured it directly what occured.
https://i.imgur.com/8yOUkw6.png
In addition to 2017, tt would be really informative if we had access to or at least clear memories of past May Euro forecasts for ASO and then compared these to how the seasons went. Was 2017 reflective of a common Euro error/bias or was 2017 a rare error? Does anyone have access to or memories of 2016 and earlier May Euro forecasts for ASO?
Larry You can find it in the link below. Goes back to 2008.
EUROSIP
Thanks. That's nice to be able to see.
So, I took a careful look at these Euro ASO SLP forecasts going back to 2008 and learned a lot. Here's what I found regarding past Euro ASO SLP forecasts made in May (June in 2008):1.
The 2018 May forecast is the 2nd least active forecast since 2008 with only 2009 barely less active overall (and even that's debatable). It is a much less active forecast than 2017's, which was actually pretty much neutral in the Car./GOM.2.
I compared these May forecasts with actual ASO TC activity and here are my grades:2017: D (worst of any); forecast was neutral GOM/Car./slightly quieter than normal elsewhere except more solidly quieter than normal E to S MDR
2016: B; overall pretty neutral forecast W MDR/GOM/subtropics but inactive E MDR
2015: B; forecast pretty inactive tropics but near normal subtropics
2014: A; forecast inactive tropics but near normal subtropics; 2nd least active of any back to 2008 excluding 2018
2013: C; forecast pretty neutral everywhere
2012: C; forecast pretty inactive most of MDR/GOM but neutral much of subtropics E of 60W
2011: B; forecast pretty active most of MDR/GOM/subtropics west of 60W, especially E MDR, but neutral subtropics E of 60W
2010: A; forecast was the most active of any back to 2008
2009: B; forecast was the least active of any back to 2008
2008: A; forecast was 2nd most active of any back to 2008, including more active N MDR vs S MDR
Average grade B: pretty good and worthy of being followed even though 3 of 10 got a C or D----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May forecasts in order of least active to most active/later ENSO peak/grade
2009: strong Nino/B
2018: ?/?
2014: weak Nino/A
2015: strong Nino/B2012: warm neutral/C
2016: weak Nina/B
2017: moderate Nina/D
2013: cold neutral/C
2011: moderate Nina/B
2008: weak Nina/A
2010: strong Nina/A Observations:
- predicted ENSO as of May a big influence on forecast
- performance better overall when forecast near one extreme or the other; note best grades in top and bottom and worst in middle
Conclusion: With 2018 having the 2nd most inactive forecast since 2008 and considering how the Euro has done in May when near forecast extremes,
this May Euro ASO SLP forecast should be taken seriously as far as the chances for a relatively inactive season are concerned even if we get only a weak Nino that shows up late like in 2014.