2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[LarryWx]

I am amazed at how warm the forecasts are for the next 15 days for the US as a whole and for the NE/Midwest especially. Some areas in the Midwest/NE are as much as 8-9 warmer than normal!

Going back to 1950 on a nationally degree day population weighted basis, the forecast I saw is for record warmth by about 1 degree/day averaged out vs the current record warm holder of 2015 and which is as warm as the 30 year normal for July 1-15!!

This tells me that the forecasted E US ridging to the north of the SE US could easily be in record strong territory going back to 1950 when looking at 8/31-9/14 as a whole. This would mean the JB “ridge over troubled waters” in overdrive should it verify and merits a very close eye on any TC that happens to be located not too far off the SE coast as it would be in a potentially threatening position to move W, WNW or NW into the SE US beneath that forecasted ridge or moving northward into the NE US should one come in just as the ridge weakens.

[SFLcane]

These ominous steering pattern posts going into september can make everyone a bit uneasy BUT remember if there is no hurricane to take advantage it's worth nothing. Lets hope it stays that way.

Well let’s hope the the 0z Euro is wrong, it shows 2 systems behind future Florence heading westward.

Actually based on that euro the current system developing off the african coast could leave an open alley near bermuda but that's long range.

[NDG]

Not sure i understand 2 mets contradicting themselves....Micheal Lowry said on twiiter shear for the first time is running near normal in the caribbean and then Phil K comes this morning and lays down the hammer saying its the highest its been in years again. Lol what gives..

According to Dr Phil K the 3rd highest windshear lever over the Caribbean during August, following to second highest was 2002, my analog year, when 8 named systems formed during September, which 2 became Major Hurricanes in NW Caribbean & GOM.

[blp]

00z First sign GFS holds with the second wave. Oh boy! Here we go. Ends up weakening ridge but that is way out there in timeframe.

[galaxy401]

Well looks like the long anticipated switch has finally turned on. Much more active in the Atlantic with two named storms (one in the MDR almost a hurricane) and more in the future forecasted.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
The ECMWF EPS has gone back with the -VP200 anomaly amplitude over Africa into the Indian Ocean. This is an indication for more Atlantic tropical cyclones during the mid-half of September. But suppression will likely follow later in September, quieting down the Atlantic TC season

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1036955956867948544

[NDG]

I think we can throw these daily CDAS SST anomaly maps out the window, Florence became a hurricane in these supposedly much cooler waters than average, I have always thought these daily composites can be so misleading at times.

[SconnieCane]

I guess the takeaway here is ".5 to 1 degree C below average in September is still warm enough to support at least a low-end major hurricane."

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1037312515707940866



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1037314353110900737



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037053993422409735



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037054868186378240



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037055517817024513



Note that the closest two matches to JJA 2018 are the moderate La Niña years of 1999 and 2017.

[tolakram]

The Tropical Atlantic is even drier than 2013 at this time. I’d be VERY surprised to see anything significant come out of this area throughout the remainder of the season. Not even the Kelvin Waves can kickstart tropical development.

This raises some questions, if the dry air is a result of the cooler SSTs and lack of instability, or if it's a separate issue on it's own, and how tied in this is to the AMO and Nino. One thing though compared to 2013 at least is that the waves that year didn't even make it off of Africa much (which likely contributed to the dry air), this year they're coming off strong and instantly going poof.

Just 16 days ago and now we have our first major in the dry hostile cool Atlantic. Important lesson for ALL of us, not just who I quoted.

My trusty instability chart shows better conditions, I guess.

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s some good-ish news.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1037327598299299840

[tolakram]

I have been right most years lol at least when it comes to a slow Atlantic. Last year was an exception.

2010 - 2012 were all above average, 2013-2015 were all below average, 16 above, 17 hyper.

August had no named storms. Congrats. Will be interesting to see where September ends up. I'm still in the way below average camp, even with Florence a major, but it only takes one.

[TheStormExpert]

The Tropical Atlantic is even drier than 2013 at this time. I’d be VERY surprised to see anything significant come out of this area throughout the remainder of the season. Not even the Kelvin Waves can kickstart tropical development.

This raises some questions, if the dry air is a result of the cooler SSTs and lack of instability, or if it's a separate issue on it's own, and how tied in this is to the AMO and Nino. One thing though compared to 2013 at least is that the waves that year didn't even make it off of Africa much (which likely contributed to the dry air), this year they're coming off strong and instantly going poof.

Just 16 days ago and now we have our first major in the dry hostile cool Atlantic. Important lesson for ALL of us, not just who I quoted.

My trusty instability chart shows better conditions, I guess.
https://i.imgur.com/1ydZ45O.png

Well technically it became a major in the Subtropical Atlantic but still quite impressive nonetheless considering the SST configuration is not ideal. Maybe the Modoki nature of things is to blame?

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1037314353110900737

[Ntxw]

Well to be fair it is peak of Hurricane season. Even in quietest years (yes even 2013) there are still hurricanes that track from Africa. It will probably remain busy here for the next 2 weeks at least.

[NDG]

Just 10 days ago there were a lot of people dismissing the idea of a similar September like 2002, a good analog year I brought back in early August. I would not be surprised if it stays busy through early October like that year.

[tolakram]

Well technically it became a major in the Subtropical Atlantic but still quite impressive nonetheless considering the SST configuration is not ideal. Maybe the Modoki nature of things is to blame?

Yep, so did Ike, and while I haven't gone over every storm many of the east coast hurricanes became a hurricane in the sub tropics or very close to 20N.

[psyclone]

September is 1/6 of hurricane season but it typically produces 1/3 of storms. Climo tasks it with double duty. If it performs above normal it could easily make up for late August which should have, but didn't produce. At this juncture we're in the hunt for a normalish season and beating normal seems doable...definitely ahead of seasonal forecasting which seems to still be of little value. It's going to be interesting to see if we can get some late season action down in the western Caribbean...something I'm always interested in.

[chaser1]

Here’s some good-ish news.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 6319662080

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 8299299840

Unless or until said tropical waves eventually move out of the MDR and develop nearer to Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands, Bahamas, N. Caribbean, or Gulf.

[NDG]

The season may end up at least average if this comes to fruition of African waves staying active through October.

Ben Noll
‏@BenNollWeather

Will the Atlantic remain active over the next several weeks? It looks that way.

Enhanced rainfall and convection (purple) is expected to continue over Africa during the next several weeks, the breeding ground for tropical waves. The pattern may persist into October.
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1037656832435576833

[TheStormExpert]

Then comes Michael Ventrice saying that the Cape Verde season may only last 1-2 weeks this year.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037691248847609859