2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#81 Postby StruThiO » Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:31 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#82 Postby NotSparta » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:56 am

StruThiO wrote:Image


Niño 1+2 is dropping like a rock.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#83 Postby NotSparta » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:57 pm

Nearly textbook -AMO look imo

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#84 Postby StruThiO » Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:21 pm

:uarrow:

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:00 pm

The continous surges of Saharan Air Layer plumes are causing the sst's to cool in MDR. Let's see how this continues as ASO gets closer.Interesting what Michael Ventrice says about predicting these SAL outbreaks.

@MJVentrice
Check out this Saharan Air Layer, which is composed of dry Saharan dust, get advected off West Africa in an apparent trade surge over the eastern tropical Atlantic into Africa.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/978691201334435840




Image

Image

@MJVentrice
This suggests that there is predictability in forecasting large Saharan Air Layer Outbreaks over the tropical Atlantic on the order of weeks in advance.


@MJVentrice
The general thought train here is that the enhanced trades associated with the circulation of the Kelvin wave (in this case, collocated with the suppressed phase of the Kelvin wave) will propagate eastward across Africa, kicking off a Saharan Air Layer Outbreak


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/978692814677606402




@MJVentrice
Note that the Saharan Air Layer Outbreak is timed with the passage of the convectively suppressed phase of a strong atmospheric Kelvin wave across Africa


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/978691375075033088




@EricBlake12
The trick is the collocation with the MJO to me- negative phase of that is more likely to enhance Subtropical ridge and cause the trades. The CCKW probably just provides the peak strength. Would be an interesting study


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/978693567899107328


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:19 pm

A biggie outbreak of SAL.Hopefully,these outbreaks continue thru the peak months of the season and MDR is quiet.You know why I am rooting for a quiet season. We need +NAO.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#87 Postby NotSparta » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:A biggie outbreak of SAL.Hopefully,these outbreaks continue thru the peak months of the season and MDR is quiet.You know why I am rooting for a quiet season. We need +NAO.

[img ]https://i.imgur.com/neQHCSQ.jpg[/img]


The SAL outbreaks themselves are cooling the MDR right now, if the -NAO continues I'm hoping for the outbreaks to continue, and later it would suppress tropical waves
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#88 Postby StruThiO » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:55 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#89 Postby NotSparta » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:07 pm

StruThiO wrote:[tweet ]https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/981609871056539649[/tweet]


Has probably gone down in the recent days, it may fall for April 2018 if the SST anomaly pattern sticks
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#90 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:23 am


Interestingly, the March '18 reading was the most positive since March '13. March '17's reading was -0.61 standard deviations vs. this year's -0.5. So the AMO, overall, remains in the most positive state we have seen in several years, despite fluctuations. We will need to see if the April reading is more positive than April '17's (which was at -0.81 standard deviations). If the upcoming April reading is fairly close, then the AMO thus far in 2018 will be roughly on par with 2017's.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/colorado-state-university-amo/
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#91 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:33 am

@webberweather
The warming MDR last yr late in the spring & summer likely hastened the demise of the failed NINO attempt. If the tropical Atlantic fails to warm this time around, +ENSO and NINO is probably more likely to couple w/ the -AMO SST configuration ongoing atm. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 15GL064381


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981931171876663297


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#92 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:59 am

cycloneye wrote:@webberweather
The warming MDR last yr late in the spring & summer likely hastened the demise of the failed NINO attempt. If the tropical Atlantic fails to warm this time around, +ENSO and NINO is probably more likely to couple w/ the -AMO SST configuration ongoing atm. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 15GL064381


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981931171876663297




So they seem related, I'll be checking zonal wind anoms for both ENSO and MDR regions
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#93 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:@webberweather
The warming MDR last yr late in the spring & summer likely hastened the demise of the failed NINO attempt. If the tropical Atlantic fails to warm this time around, +ENSO and NINO is probably more likely to couple w/ the -AMO SST configuration ongoing atm. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 15GL064381


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981931171876663297



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981914703239794689



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/981916392634109952



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981918123627634688



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981930439320449024



This evidence, including past history, seems to strongly support the idea of an inactive season in 2018. At least that's what I see. Warm East Pacific (+Pacific Meridional Mode/PMM) north of the equator + cooler MDR vs. spring '17 + cool Indian Ocean + generally +PDO = enhanced upward (downward) motion over East Pacific (Atlantic), meaning lower (higher) sea-level pressures over EPAC (tropical Atlantic), enhanced (suppressed) TC formation in EPAC (tropical Atlantic/Caribbean), decreased (increased) vertical shear over EPAC (tropical Atlantic/Caribbean), and favourable background feedback -> -SOI, MJO, and WWB to further growth of El Niño by peak of Atlantic hurricane season. It's all connected. A very warm MDR (warmer than this year's) and La Niña did not overcome +PMM and +PDO in 1978, 1980, 1981, and 1988, which were all inactive over the Atlantic basin, which seems to put a monkey wrench into theories that put a lot of weight on MDR SST anomalies.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#94 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:41 pm

Humm CSU forecast not buying into a inactive season atm. Seems the old season is likely
over before it has begun campaigns is raring its head again.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/csu-2 ... ve-average
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#95 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:01 am

CFS shows a significant slowing of trade winds over the MDR later this month. If this verifies, the MDR may warm up quite a bit before the start of the season...
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#96 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:16 pm

It appears here that there has been less rain than normal in most of the ATL ITCZ area, but much above normal a bit to the north. It seems this is a signal of the ITCZ there being slightly further north than usual for this time of year, if I am correct.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#97 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:26 pm

@webberweather
Something to keep in mind this hurricane season. You don't need an El Nino to increase shear in the MDR & make conditions hostile for TCG. Years like this w/ a +PMM & active EP actually have above avg shear & less TC activity in the MDR despite there not being an El Nino on paper




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/982296766098956290


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#98 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:42 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#99 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:03 pm

Shell Mound wrote:--quote removed-


One of those is not like the other
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#100 Postby tolakram » Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:19 am

Folks are documenting what people are saying here in the great unknown period prior to, say, mid May. In my opinion anyway, this is a good thing.

Also, please avoid quoting an entire long message just to add a small comment. :) Thanks.
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