Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
To be fair its not just the Euro, the JMA and CFS show the same thing.
Then something is wrong with all these models wrt the WAM, you don't go from near record territory to much drier than normal in a timeframe like a week or two
I think they're behaving normally when you consider the subsurface pool in the CPAC/EPAC, and the MJO modeled to enter and become "stuck" in the El Nino phases.
It's all wait and see at this point. Mid August will be telling. Eric Blake and Levi Cowan do have a point that this may only be a small 2 week trend in the grand scheme of things.
Levi Cowan and Eric Blake made this statement because they thought the lack of strong, persistent easterly trades was being driven by subseasonal variability. It's extremely obvious with the MJO in the central-western pacific that what we're observing still shouldn't be happening if this was the case, and the next 10 days the trades are going to only get slower even as the east-central MDR appears dry. The drier MDR is arguably even more conducive for more rapid warming because it benefits from both weak trades underneath the AEWs on the northern side of the AEJ and increased insolation that both serve to warm the sea surface, obviously the advection of SAL does block some insolation but this is offset by the lack of large-scale deep convective cloud cover.
I'll say this again, what we are seeing is not temporary because the trade wind variability is being driven by the monsoon (which is a lower frequency, seasonal phenomena and not higher frequency subseasonal forcing (CCKWs/MJO (which both argue for strong trades over the Atlantic atm). Even these big, poleward displaced, dry waves the next week or two (and possibly beyond) will probably inflict quite a bit of damage to the -AMO as the ECMWF shows...