2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1024088485248917504

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1024334939762970624

[GCANE]

GOM looks interesting.
Elongated 850mb vort.
Heavy convection firing along a shear axis.

[GCANE]

GOM looks interesting.
Elongated 850mb vort.
Heavy convection firing along a shear axis.

Looks like a couple short-duration towers fired off with helicity.
Keeping an eye on this overnight.
Could be a brew.

[jasons2k]

There is a small pocket of low shear in the GOM over the trough axis. It is August. Something to watch...

[Hammy]

Going to post this here since it's well beyond the 16-day period: CFS 00z from yesterday, and accompanying names (all but one appeared to be at least TS intensity) and tracks as the model is currently forecasting. It's difficult to tell intensities from that model given the low resolution and large area shown. The takeaway is that the model's insistence on the first half of August being void of anything continues, as well as the idea that the Atlantic will be fairly active (and east-biased) with several long-trackers (most not affecting land) and a more active than expected MDR.

Otherwise, especially the tracks/timing, take with a grain of salt as I'm posting this mainly to show the general trend of activity the model is expecting, and I'll probably post spot-checks every few days until the shorter-term models start showing something.



https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0 The model in question if anybody else wants to add their take.

[Yellow Evan]

O storm is Oscar and P storm is Patty. Not Otto and Patricia.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: O storm is Oscar and P storm is Patty. Not Otto and Patricia.

That's what I get for doing this at almost 3am

[HurricaneEnzo]

The complete opposite of what conventional wisdom says should happen this season lol. If the CFS gets this right and that many storms form in the MDR kudos to it but I'm not liking its chances

Going to post this here since it's well beyond the 16-day period: CFS 00z from yesterday, and accompanying names (all but one appeared to be at least TS intensity) and tracks as the model is currently forecasting. It's difficult to tell intensities from that model given the low resolution and large area shown. The takeaway is that the model's insistence on the first half of August being void of anything continues, as well as the idea that the Atlantic will be fairly active (and east-biased) with several long-trackers (most not affecting land) and a more active than expected MDR.

Otherwise, especially the tracks/timing, take with a grain of salt as I'm posting this mainly to show the general trend of activity the model is expecting, and I'll probably post spot-checks every few days until the shorter-term models start showing something.



https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0 The model in question if anybody else wants to add their take.

[NotSparta]

Going to post this here since it's well beyond the 16-day period: CFS 00z from yesterday, and accompanying names (all but one appeared to be at least TS intensity) and tracks as the model is currently forecasting. It's difficult to tell intensities from that model given the low resolution and large area shown. The takeaway is that the model's insistence on the first half of August being void of anything continues, as well as the idea that the Atlantic will be fairly active (and east-biased) with several long-trackers (most not affecting land) and a more active than expected MDR.

Otherwise, especially the tracks/timing, take with a grain of salt as I'm posting this mainly to show the general trend of activity the model is expecting, and I'll probably post spot-checks every few days until the shorter-term models start showing something.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/aT95kts.png[/im]

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0 The model in question if anybody else wants to add their take.

I like how it shows all this MDR activity & still shows a pretty decent El Niño soon

[CyclonicFury]

There has been a lot of mention about how cold the MDR is this year, and rightfully so. It's the coldest over the last 35 years. However, this does NOT mean that we will have no activity during the peak of the season. All it takes is a disturbance, a low shear window, a moist environment and warm waters for 24-48 hours for a hurricane to develop. Even though the Atlantic looks dead right now with all the shear and dust, I would bet that we see at least one major hurricane this season. I wouldn't be too surprised if we don't see Debby until around the third week of August, but I do think we will see a peak season since El Niño has not developed yet and the African monsoon is strong.

[Hurricaneman]

There has been a lot of mention about how cold the MDR is this year, and rightfully so. It's the coldest over the last 35 years. However, this does NOT mean that we will have no activity during the peak of the season. All it takes is a disturbance, a low shear window, a moist environment and warm waters for 24-48 hours for a hurricane to develop. Even though the Atlantic looks dead right now with all the shear and dust, I would bet that we see at least one major hurricane this season. I wouldn't be too surprised if we don't see Debby until around the third week of August, but I do think we will see a peak season since El Niño has not developed yet and the African monsoon is strong.

And another thing people seem to forget is that in the years 1989 and 1985 the MDR was well below normal also and we still got humdingers for hurricanes in Hugo and Gloria but admittedly Gloria didn’t take off until it got past 50w so maybe this year might have something similar happen

Ps I forgot about 1992 with Andrew

[tarheelprogrammer]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a REAL storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

[CyclonicFury]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

Since there has only been one time in the satellite era that a named storm that did not form in August (and that was during a Super El Niño), I would have to go with yes. First half of the month could very well be dead though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

Since there has only been one time in the satellite era that a named storm that did not form in August (and that was during a Super El Niño), I would have to go with yes. First half of the month could very well be dead though.

We shall see. Right now things do not look too promising for development through at least mid-month.

[Hammy]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

Since there has only been one time in the satellite era that a named storm that did not form in August (and that was during a Super El Niño), I would have to go with yes. First half of the month could very well be dead though.

We shall see. Right now things do not look too promising for development through at least mid-month.

The only satellite year we can 100% verify (I say this because 1961 reanalysis is in progress) that didn't have a storm in August was 1997, and that was in the middle of a super Nino. We've had multiple times (even active years) where there was nothing in the first half of August--1996, 98, 99, 2007, 09, 15 (and 1979 as well if you go back further) and still had decent or high activity the rest of the month. On an interesting note, four consecutive years (1996-99) had nothing before August 18.

[tolakram]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

Since there has only been one time in the satellite era that a named storm that did not form in August (and that was during a Super El Niño), I would have to go with yes. First half of the month could very well be dead though.

We shall see. Right now things do not look too promising for development through at least mid-month.

You know you say this just about every year?

[galaxy401]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

Since there has only been one time in the satellite era that a named storm that did not form in August (and that was during a Super El Niño), I would have to go with yes. First half of the month could very well be dead though.

We shall see. Right now things do not look too promising for development through at least mid-month.

The chances of zero storms in August are extremely rare. Even inactive seasons spawn at least one storm this month. August 20 tends to be the date when the switch turns on in the basin. Once we get to that date, then we should start to see if this season will be active or not. Many active seasons were quiet during the first half of this month.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Since there has only been one time in the satellite era that a named storm that did not form in August (and that was during a Super El Niño), I would have to go with yes. First half of the month could very well be dead though.

We shall see. Right now things do not look too promising for development through at least mid-month.

You know you say this just about every year?

I have been right most years lol at least when it comes to a slow Atlantic. Last year was an exception.

[CyclonicFury]

We shall see. Right now things do not look too promising for development through at least mid-month.

You know you say this just about every year?

I have been right most years lol at least when it comes to a slow Atlantic. Last year was an exception.

I'm going to say this: if you expect no TC genesis in the Atlantic this month, you are very likely going to be wrong based on years of history.