2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

To the knowledgeable folks on here- Could we get a much
More active than forecasted burst of activity? Mdr trending warmer with a more active west African monsoon birthing tropical waves which are decreasing mdr trades. Could this mean an unexpected burst of activity prior to El Niño taking hold?

Obviously many other factors including shear and anticipated cooler ssts are predicted so it’s super uncertain. The experts don’t expect an active season, but with the mdr warming like this, if shear drops over the Caribbean 2018 could exceed predictions.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017183730300084224



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017185373972303872



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017187908120440832



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017189697813143553



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017192116731211778



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017389014352039936



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017391505282142208



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017405399723458562



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1017425944334815232



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017429945558224896



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017434012103643136



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017406501369942017



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017409304356257794



 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1017142872506806274

[Shell Mound]

Interesting devil's-advocate take on ENSO evolution:

 https://twitter.com/_WxPhil_/status/1017147456193290241



 https://twitter.com/_WxPhil_/status/1017144971089076231



 https://twitter.com/stevenross20/status/1017464515229650944



 https://twitter.com/BeccaLynch4/status/1017501507787329536




More on the African monsoon and MDR SSTs:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017490157564514308



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017491904240472065



 https://twitter.com/WxBruges/status/1017500208714911751

[cycloneye]

And then comes MIchael Ventrice with the bearish view.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017722696413609984




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017723607634587648

[NotSparta]

Looks like, at least for the first 10 days of July, the stronger than avg TUTT signature that was present in June has significantly degraded. I can't see the signature for a stronger than avg TUTT any longer, but it is not weaker than avg either.

[TheStormExpert]

It's obvious that the Euro and its seasonal forecasts are overly bullish in making the Atlantic much more hostile than it really is. Just take 2016, and 2017 for example, both active seasons with the latter being hyperactive. Meanwhile the Euro continuously forecasted a below average to average season at best for both.

Meanwhile, the Tropical Atlantic continues to warm. Also the cooler SST's are starting to move more into the Subtropical Atlantic which would be a better SST configuration if this continues to progress.





Mid-Latitude Atlantic has started to cool.

[tolakram]

At the moment shear is running near to below normal in all regions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Rather meaningless for the future, just an interesting stat.

[Alyono]

And then comes MIchael Ventrice with the bearish view.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017722696413609984




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017723607634587648

Ventrice places far too much emphasis on the EC. He hugged the EC last year and totally missed Maria

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/raileyky/status/1017792179232702464

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017807864407175168

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely a surprising trend going on right now in the MDR. Reminds me of what started happening last year before the season went insane.

[cycloneye]

I think CSU,NOAA and TSR may have to raise numbers in their August forecast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1017832912991981568

[Kingarabian]

And then comes MIchael Ventrice with the bearish view.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017722696413609984[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017723607634587648[tweet]

Ventrice places far too much emphasis on the EC. He hugged the EC last year and totally missed Maria

To be fair its not just the Euro, the JMA and CFS show the same thing.

[NotSparta]

And then comes MIchael Ventrice with the bearish view.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017722696413609984[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017723607634587648[tweet]

Ventrice places far too much emphasis on the EC. He hugged the EC last year and totally missed Maria

To be fair its not just the Euro, the JMA and CFS show the same thing.

Then something is wrong with all these models wrt the WAM, you don't go from near record territory to much drier than normal in a timeframe like a week or two

[Kingarabian]

Ventrice places far too much emphasis on the EC. He hugged the EC last year and totally missed Maria

To be fair its not just the Euro, the JMA and CFS show the same thing.

Then something is wrong with all these models wrt the WAM, you don't go from near record territory to much drier than normal in a timeframe like a week or two

I think they're behaving normally when you consider the subsurface pool in the CPAC/EPAC, and the MJO modeled to enter and become "stuck" in the El Nino phases.

It's all wait and see at this point. Mid August will be telling. Eric Blake and Levi Cowan do have a point that this may only be a small 2 week trend in the grand scheme of things.

[Kingarabian]

We've almost seen this situation before back in 2009. I'm using 2009 as an analog here because I'm using it for ENSO:

In 2009, the hurricane season began with a -AMO type signature although not as negative as this years. While it doesn't cover the entire MDR, the buoys @ 23W,0-20N show that in 2009, the MDR had similar if not stronger westerly anomalies that rapidly warmed up the SST's there:

2009:




2018:


Will be interesting to see just how much more the trades are relaxed compared to 2009 when August begins and the rest of the July zonal wind data is uploaded.


However, 2009's El Nino was much more mature than this years at this time, but there is some leeway for 2018 since the AMO is a lot cooler than 2009's. I still think whether we see an established El Nino by ASO will be the deciding factor.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Worth pointing out that 2009, despite being relatively inactive, turned two of the most impressive El Nino year CV hurricanes in the last decade: Hurricanes Bill and Fred.

[Alyono]

Worth pointing out that 2009, despite being relatively inactive, turned two of the most impressive El Nino year CV hurricanes in the last decade: Hurricanes Bill and Fred.

Frances and Ivan have those two covered

[AutoPenalti]

A bit off-topic but what was up with the abnormally high SST's in the higher latitudes during those months? (i.e. North Pole)