2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#261 Postby tolakram » Sun May 20, 2018 7:04 am

Shell Mound wrote:So, considering all the factors that go into seasonal forecasting, the ECMWF is a much more reliable long-range model than people are giving it credit for. At least that's my humble, evidence-based opinion (as I see the evidence).



My issue is specifically with last years forecast.

Image

Image

It had 60 -70% chance of above normal pressures in an area where 3 major hurricanes moved through. If I'm a forecaster how can I use that map?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#262 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun May 20, 2018 7:10 am

:uarrow: It also seems to always favor lower pressures in the Central Pacific which would assume a heightened risk to Hawaii from TC’s. The outcome last season was not a single TC came within 500 miles of the Hawaiian Islands.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#263 Postby LarryWx » Sun May 20, 2018 10:11 am

NDG wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:In looking at EUROSIP for 2005-17, I've just figured out that its forecast put out each May for Nino 3.4 SST anomalies during the heart of the hurricane season, ASO, has a significant warm bias. I plan to post about this in detail as soon as I get a chance.


That's the problem I have with it this year. Since warm neutral is most likely for ASO, its warm bias will push it into El Niño, causing erroneously high pressures.


Absolutely, by it being very warm biased with its ENSO forecast the last couple of years is the reason for its high MSLPs forecast for the Atlantic, it could be the same reason why for this year if we end up with just a warm neutral ASO, especially if it is central base..


Actually, yes I have Eurosip strongly warm biased in 2017 though not in 2016 or 2015. However, then I have it solidly warm biased for most of the years 2014-2005. Here's what I found for how the ASO 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts made in the preceding May by Eurosip verified:

Year: Eurosip's May fcast verification for ASO 3.4

2017: 1.1 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2016: 0.1 warmer (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
2015: 0.1 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2013: 0.5 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2012: 0.9 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
2011: 1.1 cooler (moderate La Niña occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2010: 0.9 cooler (strong La Niña occurred vs weak La Niña prediction)
2009: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2008: 0.8 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2007: 0.2 cooler (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2005: 0.4 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)

So, of the 13 May forecasts for ASO, only 5 were correctly predicted while 3 were one category too warm, 4 were two categories too warm, and 1 was three categories too warm. None were any categories too cold! The average was 0.5 too warm or one category too warm!

Out of the 7 Eurosip El Niño predictions for ASO in the preceding May, only 3 verified. In contrast, Eurosip predicted only 3 La Niñas in ASO but 4 occurred.

I'm eagerly waiting to see what the May, 2018, Eurosip prediction will be for ASO. It will almost definitely either be warm neutral or weak El Niño. Of the 3 warm neutral predictions, 2 ended up one category too warm while 1 ended up three categories too warm. Of the 5 weak El Niño predictions, 2 ended up verifying correctly while 1
was one category too warm and 2 were two categories too warm.

Out of the 13 predictions, weak El Niño was clearly the most common prediction (5) while warm neutral was 2nd most common (3). Next was weak La Niña (2). The remainder were each predicted once: strong El Niño, moderate El Niño, and moderate La Niña. There were no cold neutral or strong La Niña predictions though 4 cold neutral occurred (the most of any category) and one strong La Niña occurred.

So, of the 13 May predictions for ASO, a whopping 10 were warmer than 0.0 while only 3 were colder. It turned out that only 5 were warmer than 0.0 while 8 were colder.

The average May Eurosip ASO 3.4 prog during 2005-17 was for +0.4 vs the -0.1 actual.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#264 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 20, 2018 12:15 pm

@wxtrackercody
With a blazing subtropical Atlantic and a persistently cool MDR, this is probably the least conducive SST configuration since before the AMO flip in 1995.


Image

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/998227985424699392


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#265 Postby gatorcane » Sun May 20, 2018 12:23 pm

Yeah I agree the SST configuration doesn’t point to an active Cape Verde season like the SST anomalies were suggesting for 2017 but don’t forget waves may postpone development until further west in the Caribbean or Bahamas for example and become big problems especially if El Niño holds off until November or December.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#266 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 20, 2018 12:35 pm

If this trend continues,then most of the activity will in the subtropical Atlantic like an example,Gordon Cat 2 2012 did.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#267 Postby LarryWx » Sun May 20, 2018 5:22 pm

Has anyone wondered why out in the open oceans it is very rare to get much above 30C? I know when I've looked at sectors that 31C is about the warmest I've seen with that often in the W Car/GOM/Gulf Stream as well as off the MX coast in the Epac as well as perhaps parts of the W Pac. The answer is that 28C is when deep tropical convection becomes induced. The convection means increased clouds, which reduces insolation, and also cooling downdrafts/drier air. So, it is a self regulating mechanism that usually stops open ocean SST rises near 30-31C:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 99GL900197
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#268 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 20, 2018 6:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:@wxtrackercody
With a blazing subtropical Atlantic and a persistently cool MDR, this is probably the least conducive SST configuration since before the AMO flip in 1995.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/yq3YbMI.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/998227985424699392[tweet]


Wow. Honestly, I have never seen this setup before.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#269 Postby Hammy » Sun May 20, 2018 9:57 pm

:uarrow: Sort of resembles where 2000 was by this point in June.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#270 Postby tolakram » Mon May 21, 2018 6:34 am

:uarrow: Good example of a La Nina and poor conditions in the Atlantic. Slightly above average season with a lot of weak storms.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#271 Postby NDG » Mon May 21, 2018 8:40 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#272 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 21, 2018 10:35 am

tolakram wrote::uarrow: Good example of a La Nina and poor conditions in the Atlantic. Slightly above average season with a lot of weak storms.

That also makes it more clear you’d think that this season would only be able to be average at best with a kind of similar SST configuration and NO La Niña, maybe more El Niño-like effects if anything.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon May 21, 2018 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#273 Postby Shell Mound » Mon May 21, 2018 10:39 am

gatorcane wrote:Yeah I agree the SST configuration doesn’t point to an active Cape Verde season like the SST anomalies were suggesting for 2017 but don’t forget waves may postpone development until further west in the Caribbean or Bahamas for example and become big problems especially if El Niño holds off until November or December.

I can't think of any year that featured a similar -AMO configuration, near-record +PMM, budding El Niño, and a "big problem" (major hurricane) in the U.S.

If anyone can think of just one such year that met the first three criteria and featured a major U.S. landfall, please post it here. I'm curious! :P

Based on history, the U.S. and other areas in the Atlantic basin may well be "off the hook" in terms of significant landfalls in 2018. And I won't be disappointed! 8-)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#274 Postby chaser1 » Mon May 21, 2018 11:06 am

Shell Mound wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Yeah I agree the SST configuration doesn’t point to an active Cape Verde season like the SST anomalies were suggesting for 2017 but don’t forget waves may postpone development until further west in the Caribbean or Bahamas for example and become big problems especially if El Niño holds off until November or December.

I can't think of any year that featured a similar -AMO configuration, near-record +PMM, budding El Niño, and a "big problem" (major hurricane) in the U.S.

If anyone can think of just one such year that met the first three criteria and featured a major U.S. landfall, please post it here. I'm curious! :P

Based on history, the U.S. and other areas in the Atlantic basin may well be "off the hook" in terms of significant landfalls in 2018. And I won't be disappointed! 8-)


I tend to agree with those thoughts, and am beginning to think that shear numbers will suggest an average to possibly slightly above average season at most. At the same time, I'm also thinking that as a result of further west development and strong E. Conus 500 mb heights bridging an already stout far W. Atlantic mid level ridging pattern, a result may actually be a higher ratio of tropical cyclone impacts to the Bahamas, W. Cuba, S. Florida & Yucatan (with additional threat to Central America, N. Gulf Coast, and Carolina to E. Mass). Hopefully with less than ideal upper level conditions, and a limited degree of real estate for intensification largely caused by early land interaction.... this may feel like a fairly busy season but with a mitigated major hurricane wind threat due to those factors mentioned above.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#275 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 22, 2018 2:13 pm

The Eurosip May of 2018 SLP fcast for ASO was released today:
https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-gre ... syXjkb.png

For a comparison, here's 2017:
https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-gre ... _KRmyx.png

Compared to the May of 2017 outlook for ASO, it suggests quite a bit less activity except about the same E MDR and a little more active subtropics north of 30-35 mainly well east of the CONUS. It is significantly much quieter in the MDR west of 45W. The Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM are much quieter than the near neutral that the 2017 map showed with the Caribbean the quietest since the 2009 map and the GOM the quietest since the 2012 map.

In contrast, it has Hawaii and vicinity with the lowest SLP since the very active year of 2015 and similar to the low SLP of 2014. So, 2018 is tied with 2014 as having the 2nd lowest ASO SLP forecast in Hawaii in the May release since 2008. So, you may want to be extra wary in Hawaii this season.

Here are prior years' May ASO SLP maps for the Atlantic Basin along with my grades:

2017: D (worst of any); forecast was neutral GOM/Car./slightly quieter than normal elsewhere except more solidly quieter than normal E to S MDR
2016: B; overall pretty neutral forecast W MDR/GOM/subtropics but inactive E MDR
2015: B; forecast pretty inactive tropics but near normal subtropics
2014: A; forecast inactive tropics but near normal subtropics; 2nd least active of any back to 2008 excluding 2018
2013: C; forecast pretty neutral everywhere
2012: C; forecast pretty inactive most of MDR/GOM but neutral much of subtropics E of 60W
2011: B; forecast pretty active most of MDR/GOM/subtropics west of 60W, especially E MDR, but neutral subtropics E of 60W
2010: A; forecast was the most active of any back to 2008
2009: B; forecast was the least active of any back to 2008
2008: A; forecast was 2nd most active of any back to 2008, including more active N MDR vs S MDR
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#276 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue May 22, 2018 4:23 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Yeah I agree the SST configuration doesn’t point to an active Cape Verde season like the SST anomalies were suggesting for 2017 but don’t forget waves may postpone development until further west in the Caribbean or Bahamas for example and become big problems especially if El Niño holds off until November or December.

I can't think of any year that featured a similar -AMO configuration, near-record +PMM, budding El Niño, and a "big problem" (major hurricane) in the U.S.

If anyone can think of just one such year that met the first three criteria and featured a major U.S. landfall, please post it here. I'm curious! :P

Based on history, the U.S. and other areas in the Atlantic basin may well be "off the hook" in terms of significant landfalls in 2018. And I won't be disappointed! 8-)


You’re assuming that the sst configurations stays the same, a lot of quiet years featured significant impacts, 1979,1983 and 1992 are a few that come to mind. And as far as the budding El Niño goes, I’ll believe it when it’s declared. I see nothing that indicates a traditional El Niño..perhaps a weak modoki El Niño in the later months of the season.
I think a average year is in the cards..give or take one or two either way, it only takes one to make a season memorable.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#277 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 22, 2018 7:37 pm

GFS shows a long range -NAO pattern, but still strong trades over the MDR :lol:

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#278 Postby galaxy401 » Tue May 22, 2018 8:05 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Based on history, the U.S. and other areas in the Atlantic basin may well be "off the hook" in terms of significant landfalls in 2018. And I won't be disappointed! 8-)


This is a very premature statement to give. Very quiet years can still produce a monster.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#279 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 22, 2018 8:15 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Based on history, the U.S. and other areas in the Atlantic basin may well be "off the hook" in terms of significant landfalls in 2018. And I won't be disappointed! 8-)


This is a very premature statement to give. Very quiet years can still produce a monster.

This just sounds like something a certain someone who used to be on here from a few years ago in 2016 said and look what happened then and last year.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#280 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 22, 2018 9:00 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Based on history, the U.S. and other areas in the Atlantic basin may well be "off the hook" in terms of significant landfalls in 2018. And I won't be disappointed! 8-)


This is a very premature statement to give. Very quiet years can still produce a monster.


Like 1983, the most inactive season on record.
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