2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[CyclonicFury]

Then comes Michael Ventrice saying that the Cape Verde season may only last 1-2 weeks this year.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037691248847609859

I don't know if I can trust Ventrice's predictions anymore. As we all know, last year he said we probably wouldn't be able to buy a hurricane between September 7-25. This year, he said July would be dead (we saw two hurricanes), and before the season said he anticipated much below normal activity this season. It's looking likely ACE will at least be close to normal. Last year, I also remember him saying not a lot was going on in the tropics during Jose, and then a less than a week later Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico nearly at Category 5 intensity. He puts way too much stock into the "base state" with his forecasts and not enough into climatology.

[TheStormExpert]

Then comes Michael Ventrice saying that the Cape Verde season may only last 1-2 weeks this year.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037691248847609859

I don't know if I can trust Ventrice's predictions anymore. As we all know, last year he said we probably wouldn't be able to buy a hurricane between September 7-25. This year, he said July would be dead (we saw two hurricanes), and before the season said he anticipated much below normal activity this season. It's looking likely ACE will at least be close to normal. Last year, I also remember him saying not a lot was going on in the tropics during Jose, and then a less than a week later Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico nearly at Category 5 intensity. He puts way too much stock into the "base state" with his forecasts and not enough into climatology.

Yep, I totally remember last Septembers bold statement from him. Seems every time he makes a statement like this predicting a quiet or unfavorable Atlantic the opposite happens. Hope this time he is right though!

[tolakram]

If what the models are all showing is true this is going to easily be a normal season and quite possible above normal. What a crazy turnaround, but still a big if because it hasn't happened yet.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1038037291279769600

[NDG]

Crazy indeed!

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1038037291279769600

If the track of Florence shifts further south to impact Miami, it would be the first for the headquaters of JTWC, CPHC, and NHC to be threatened at the same time (Although JTWC has relocated to Hawaii since 1999)

[chaser1]

Funny, and I was just wondering if anyone remembered when was the last time that 2 different Atlantic hurricanes last made landfall on the same day? If forecasts hold, this Thursday could see both Florence striking the Carolina's... and Isaac striking the Lesser Antilles.

Other curiosity - last time three tropical storms below 30N, were simultaneously active in the Atlantic on the same day?

[gatorcane]

This season further shows that there is just little skill to long-range forecasting when it comes to tropical cyclones. That is why I generally don’t pay attention to the forecast predictions. Maybe one day we will be better but all of this talk of below normal SSTs leading to less activity, above normal shear, dry air everywhere like 2013 etc didn’t quite pan out. The other thing is that July and sometimes even August is no indicator of what September and October can bring, That said, there was a good consensus the Carolinas/SE US would be a target for this year. Sure enough that looks to be verifying.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably the fact that El Niño failed to materialize (once again) is a contributing factor to why this season maybe more active than forecasters are predicting. Also that cold tongue in the Southeast Subtropical North Atlantic that developed over the past month or so could have helped to lessen the negative SST configuration. Still despite no El Niño the Caribbean is still quite hostile with strong wind shear being present over the last several months likely due to the hyperactive East Pacific.

[NDG]

Update from Ben Noll on the Euro's velocity forecast he's been posting during the past 2 weeks.


@BenNollWeather
13 August] A major change in the tropical base state looks likely during September.
The pattern looks to become more favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclones, by mid-month, after the suppressed wave fades during the first ten days.

]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1029147032164786176

https://i.imgur.com/PnN627H.jpg]

We have to give Ben Noll credit, he was one of the first ones to sound the alarm in the middle of what many thought a repeat of '06, '09, '15...Nino seasons for September. I bet Dr Phil K along with other ones that were calling for an almost dead season are scratching his head looking at this satellite pix this morning of where did they go wrong on his forecast.

[Hammy]

On top of it, it's entirely possible all three of those could be hurricanes by the end of the day--when's the last time that happened with all being in the eastern tropical Atlantic?

[TheStormExpert]

So much for the quiet hurricane season most were expecting. This was probably one (if not the hardest) of the more difficult seasons to predict, and it's only September 10th. The question remains will things shut down once the we head through the second half of September?

[hurricanes1234]

The Atlantic be laughing at all us who predicted an inactive season.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1039347628050329603

[StruThiO]

tweet

August is already made up for.

[1900hurricane]

:uarrow: On top of it, it's entirely possible all three of those could be hurricanes by the end of the day--when's the last time that happened with all being in the eastern tropical Atlantic?

Not sure. 1995 maybe?

[Hammy]

:uarrow: On top of it, it's entirely possible all three of those could be hurricanes by the end of the day--when's the last time that happened with all being in the eastern tropical Atlantic?

Not sure. 1995 maybe?

Looks like the closest year, though Humberto was approaching 35N by the time Luis became a hurricane.

[SFLcane]

Lots more to come...

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1040190265787465728

[HurricaneEric]

Lots more to come...

[u rl]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1040190265787465728[/url]

Ben Noll used the same graphic to show the uptick in activity that we’ve been seeing now... Seems like a decent indicator.

I’m guessing Week 1 is supposed to be from Sep. 13-20??

[SFLcane]

Woah! Could get quite busy near home.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1040378377398411264?s=21