2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[wxman57]

The NASA dust forecast at day 10 looks quite hostile toward development. Dry, dusty air to dominate tropics next few weeks. Good chance we'll make it to August before Beryl forms.

[CyclonicFury]

Models do seem to be showing some stronger tropical waves moving off Africa beginning next week. However, MDR will likely be too cool and too dry to support any development for the next 4-6 weeks or so. Genesis in the deep tropical Atlantic does not seem likely until August, but we could sneak out a weak storm in the subtropics some time in July.

[Ntxw]

Those waves will probably quietly cross the Atlantic and seed the EPAC once they make it there for the next month. Development, if any is key, in the Atlantic I would look closer to North America.

[KWT]

which is why I went with 18 storms

Thats a massive and bold call!
I mean even for a neutral season in terms of ENSO with a decent Atlantic warmth in the deeper tropics and average subtropics, thats a fairly big total to reach, let alone with a season with a rubbish MDR profile and a developing El Nino profile. Equally I'm not buying those who are basically saying a shut-out season either, and besides it really does only need one well timed wave to make a season memorable.

With this set-up aloft, need to watch for those little nippers that race up the W.Atlantic from frontal systems, they seem pretty common in developing El nino seasons during July (Arthur 14, Claudette 15, Beryl 06, Alex 04, etc).

Despite what looks like a decent sub-tropics forecast, I'm still struggling to see us getting above 12 NS, UNLESS we do get one of those stringy LP chains which pump out 2-3 systems in a 7 day period.

[gatorcane]

Pretty decent warming in the MDR to SW Atlantic. Just compare to 1 week ago (bottom image). We are still over 2 1/2 months until the peak of the Atlantic season.

[Kingarabian]

which is why I went with 18 storms

Thats a massive and bold call!
I mean even for a neutral season in terms of ENSO with a decent Atlantic warmth in the deeper tropics and average subtropics, thats a fairly big total to reach, let alone with a season with a rubbish MDR profile and a developing El Nino profile. Equally I'm not buying those who are basically saying a shut-out season either, and besides it really does only need one well timed wave to make a season memorable.

With this set-up aloft, need to watch for those little nippers that race up the W.Atlantic from frontal systems, they seem pretty common in developing El nino seasons during July (Arthur 14, Claudette 15, Beryl 06, Alex 04, etc).

Despite what looks like a decent sub-tropics forecast, I'm still struggling to see us getting above 12 NS, UNLESS we do get one of those stringy LP chains which pump out 2-3 systems in a 7 day period.

Agree completely.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1009905681766518784

[Eric Webb]

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1009910430796566530

[Eric Webb]

The warming of the MDR in the past week or so is attributable to an MJO pulse passing into Africa and the Indian Ocean, temporarily slowing the easterly trades, but it's hardly a drop in the bucket and won't mean much at the large-scale unless this forcing was sustained for several weeks in a row, which appears unlikely.

[Alyono]

which is why I went with 18 storms

Thats a massive and bold call!
I mean even for a neutral season in terms of ENSO with a decent Atlantic warmth in the deeper tropics and average subtropics, thats a fairly big total to reach, let alone with a season with a rubbish MDR profile and a developing El Nino profile. Equally I'm not buying those who are basically saying a shut-out season either, and besides it really does only need one well timed wave to make a season memorable.

With this set-up aloft, need to watch for those little nippers that race up the W.Atlantic from frontal systems, they seem pretty common in developing El nino seasons during July (Arthur 14, Claudette 15, Beryl 06, Alex 04, etc).

Despite what looks like a decent sub-tropics forecast, I'm still struggling to see us getting above 12 NS, UNLESS we do get one of those stringy LP chains which pump out 2-3 systems in a 7 day period.

remember, there have been quite a few seasons recently with 10 or more forming in the subtropics/GOM

speaking of that, I'd keep an eye off the East Coast toward the end of June and early July. Some type of troughing is likely there

[Siker]

The warming of the MDR in the past week or so is attributable to an MJO pulse passing into Africa and the Indian Ocean, temporarily slowing the easterly trades, but it's hardly a drop in the bucket and won't mean much at the large-scale unless this forcing was sustained for several weeks in a row, which appears unlikely.

I don't have access to the EPS weeklies so they might offer different info, but a curious observation in the CFS (and the GEFS to the extent of its recent runs) is the area of anomalously weak low level flow south of the MDR for the next month (it disappears when models finally move upward motion away from Africa / the IO). You (or anyone else) might have insight into consequences of this anomaly. From my understanding of the Atlantic Equatorial Mode, warmer waters near the equator focus rainfall over the Gulf of Guinea vs. the Sahel, shunting the ITCZ further south. Thus a prolonged westerly burst as modeled may be detrimental to Atlantic hurricane activity (and even Pacific activity if it weakens the notably strong waves we've noticed so far) if it results in a sustained +AEM without actually warming the MDR. I don't have any understanding of ocean warming mechanics beyond weaker trades = warming directly below, so I could be totally incorrect. Sample CFS image attached:

[NotSparta]

The warming of the MDR in the past week or so is attributable to an MJO pulse passing into Africa and the Indian Ocean, temporarily slowing the easterly trades, but it's hardly a drop in the bucket and won't mean much at the large-scale unless this forcing was sustained for several weeks in a row, which appears unlikely.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png[img]

In addition, it is overdone by OSPO, which has bad SSTAs ( especially in the Atlantic), as its baseline is 1985-91 and thus has a +AMO bias.

[Siker]

The warming of the MDR in the past week or so is attributable to an MJO pulse passing into Africa and the Indian Ocean, temporarily slowing the easterly trades, but it's hardly a drop in the bucket and won't mean much at the large-scale unless this forcing was sustained for several weeks in a row, which appears unlikely.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png[img]

In addition, it is overdone by OSPO, which has bad SSTAs ( especially in the Atlantic), as its baseline is 1985-91 and thus has a +AMO bias.

Wow, this is really good to know. I even checked for myself because it sounded absurd.

[NotSparta]

Oops, it's not 1985-91, but 1985-93.

Still, this is fully in the -AMO era and would still cause the dataset to have a +AMO bias

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/methodology/methodology.php#clim

The monthly mean SST climatologies were then derived by averaging these satellite SSTs during the time period of 1985-1993. Observations from the years 1991 and 1992 were omitted due to the aerosol contamination from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

[Eric Webb]

Oops, it's not 1985-91, but 1985-93.

Still, this is fully in the -AMO era and would still cause the dataset to have a +AMO bias

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/methodology/methodology.php#clim

The monthly mean SST climatologies were then derived by averaging these satellite SSTs during the time period of 1985-1993. Observations from the years 1991 and 1992 were omitted due to the aerosol contamination from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

I already wasn't a big fan of the NESDIS SST page but this is an even bigger turn off, can't say I'm surprised. It's pretty sad we actually still have -SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic in that product because that portion of the last -AMO era was cold-very cold in the MDR.

[NotSparta]

Oops, it's not 1985-91, but 1985-93.

Still, this is fully in the -AMO era and would still cause the dataset to have a +AMO bias

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/methodology/methodology.php#clim

The monthly mean SST climatologies were then derived by averaging these satellite SSTs during the time period of 1985-1993. Observations from the years 1991 and 1992 were omitted due to the aerosol contamination from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

I already wasn't a big fan of the NESDIS SST page but this is an even bigger turn off, can't say I'm surprised. It's pretty sad we actually still have -SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic in that product because that portion of the last -AMO era was cold-very cold in the MDR.

Not to mention that it's only 9 years recorded. That's tiny.

[OuterBanker]

Periodically I check the water temperature at the Duck Research Pier (Army Corp of Engineers). This morning I couldn’t believe the reading. I have never seen the temperature this high at any time much less late June. The northern Outer Banks is unique because the Labrador current lies just below the surface. We have had many summers in which there has been a strong westerly wind which causes the Labrador current to surface (upwell) while the Gulf Stream waters are blown off shore. In other words the temps in July and August can be in the 90’s while the water temps can be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. You bake and can’t swim. Recently though the temps have been in the 90’s while the H2O temps have been the 80’s (perfect). Today’s reading is a whopping 86. The dominant winds are light and variable which allows the Gulf Stream to dominate, but I can’t ever remember being this warm this far north (36”11”). I’m sure it’s just a temporary anomaly. But, on the other hand it has raised my curiosity and concern.

http://www.frf.usace.army.mil/

[MississippiWx]

Periodically I check the water temperature at the Duck Research Pier (Army Corp of Engineers). This morning I couldn’t believe the reading. I have never seen the temperature this high at any time much less late June. The northern Outer Banks is unique because the Labrador current lies just below the surface. We have had many summers in which there has been a strong westerly wind which causes the Labrador current to surface (upwell) while the Gulf Stream waters are blown off shore. In other words the temps in July and August can be in the 90’s while the water temps can be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. You bake and can’t swim. Recently though the temps have been in the 90’s while the H2O temps have been the 80’s (perfect). Today’s reading is a whopping 86. The dominant winds are light and variable which allows the Gulf Stream to dominate, but I can’t ever remember being this warm this far north (36”11”). I’m sure it’s just a temporary anomaly. But, on the other hand it has raised my curiosity and concern.

http://www.frf.usace.army.mil/

How old are you? How many -AMO's have you experienced? We haven't had a -AMO like this in quite some time.

[OuterBanker]

Periodically I check the water temperature at the Duck Research Pier (Army Corp of Engineers). This morning I couldn’t believe the reading. I have never seen the temperature this high at any time much less late June. The northern Outer Banks is unique because the Labrador current lies just below the surface. We have had many summers in which there has been a strong westerly wind which causes the Labrador current to surface (upwell) while the Gulf Stream waters are blown off shore. In other words the temps in July and August can be in the 90’s while the water temps can be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. You bake and can’t swim. Recently though the temps have been in the 90’s while the H2O temps have been the 80’s (perfect). Today’s reading is a whopping 86. The dominant winds are light and variable which allows the Gulf Stream to dominate, but I can’t ever remember being this warm this far north (36”11”). I’m sure it’s just a temporary anomaly. But, on the other hand it has raised my curiosity and concern.

http://www.frf.usace.army.mil/

How old are you? How many -AMO's have you experienced? We haven't had a -AMO like this in quite some time.

Harry Truman was president when I was born and I have a red white and blue health card.

[Kingarabian]

With such a massive sinking anomaly presence over the Atlantic and the GOM, I wouldn't call this a Modoki El Nino. The current SST configuration may resemble one (although that's really debatable IMO), but atmospherically it doesn't.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1009748270392885248