2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#881 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:46 pm

With the waves coming off Africa at such high latitudes around 15-20N, I have doubts that anything will be able to survive the track across. The 18z GFS just tells you the story.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#882 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:44 pm

Wow, today’s 12Z/18Z model consensus for 8/27-9/2, is suggesting to me a shot at record heat in the Midwest and NE US! I doubt that it would get back to quite as hot as the hottest of this summer with normals already heading down, but in terms of anomalies the models are suggesting as hot as, if not hotter than, the hottest so far this summer up there with no autumn pattern yet in sight.

This pattern progged is one with E US ridging, which would not allow for easy recurving offshore of any tropical cyclone should one then happen to exist just off the SE coast of the US. Fortunately, though we’re approaching the seasonal peak, the tropics are very (eerily) quiet for now with nothing significant progged to form or move to near that potentially dangerous position. I wouldn’t be surprised if this quiet were to persist as the models expect. However, should something unexpectedly develop, it would need to be watched carefully for the CONUS. Remember that some overall quiet past seasons had one bad storm in the wrong place.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#883 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:20 pm

@EricBlake12
Slightly positive ENSO isn’t favorable. But the continuing coolness of the tropical Atlantic is dominating over everything, along with how cool it is to the rest of the global Tropics


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1031311312796766208


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#884 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:59 pm

:uarrow: That tells me essentially nothing else is going to form at all this month south of 35 (and the chances of getting a hurricane during August are probably near zero at this point)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#885 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:27 am

Most active period begins as the late Bill Gray rang the bell every August 20.

@philklotzbach
On August 20 every year, Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell denoting the start of the climatologically most active portion of the Atlantic #hurricane season.


Image

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1031521480129929217


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#886 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:31 am

Quite unusual to see "Tropical cyclone formation not expected during the next five days" on August 20.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#887 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:55 am

The Tropical Atlantic is even drier than 2013 at this time. I’d be VERY surprised to see anything significant come out of this area throughout the remainder of the season. Not even the Kelvin Waves can kickstart tropical development.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1031340941876097027


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#888 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Most active period begins as the late Bill Gray rang the bell every August 20.

@philklotzbach
On August 20 every year, Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell denoting the start of the climatologically most active portion of the Atlantic #hurricane season.


https://i.imgur.com/fDZNSYB.jpg

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1031521480129929217




Avila says it all.

@canedancerlix The bell never rang on the 20th in 2018


 https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/status/1031608208543154178


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#889 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:58 pm

Evidently he hadn't seen the 12Z EC.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#890 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:31 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The Tropical Atlantic is even drier than 2013 at this time. I’d be VERY surprised to see anything significant come out of this area throughout the remainder of the season. Not even the Kelvin Waves can kickstart tropical development.



This raises some questions, if the dry air is a result of the cooler SSTs and lack of instability, or if it's a separate issue on it's own, and how tied in this is to the AMO and Nino. One thing though compared to 2013 at least is that the waves that year didn't even make it off of Africa much (which likely contributed to the dry air), this year they're coming off strong and instantly going poof.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#891 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:25 pm

Loving that once again we can see SAL coverage basin-wide (even into the East Pacific)! Btw, that’s quite a bit of SAL for mid-late August, no wonder the Atlantic is completely shut down and not expected to do much anytime soon. My seasonal numbers of 12/5/2 are obviously too high unless things change fast. Also mid-level dry air is just dominating the basin right now. This is a complete 180 degree from this day a year ago.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#892 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:26 pm

Needless to say, we should all be thanking that at the moment things are quiet in the Atlantic. A lot of attention should be put on Hawaii given the threat from Lane they are in the cross-hairs of a dangerous situation.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#893 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Needless to say, we should all be thanking that at the moment things are quiet in the Atlantic. A lot of attention should be put on Hawaii given the threat from Lane they are in the cross-hairs of a dangerous situation.

Yes, despite the Atlantic being completely hostile and shutdown it still looks as if the U.S. won’t be able to dodge a bullet from any major tropical cyclone threats this season. Unless the 00z GFS is wrong (and I’m hoping it is) Hawaii may be the next victim of a hurricane strike. That’s the last thing those folks need after what they’ve dealt with concerning the volcanoes as of recently.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#894 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Needless to say, we should all be thanking that at the moment things are quiet in the Atlantic. A lot of attention should be put on Hawaii given the threat from Lane they are in the cross-hairs of a dangerous situation.

Yes, despite the Atlantic being completely hostile and shutdown it still looks as if the U.S. won’t be able to dodge a bullet from any major tropical cyclone threats this season. Unless the 00z GFS is wrong (and I’m hoping it is) Hawaii may be the next victim of a hurricane strike. That’s the last thing those folks need after what they’ve dealt with concerning the volcanoes as of recently.


even if we have zero storms in the Atlantic the rest of the year, this may end up as a terrible hurricane season
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#895 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:45 pm

The Atlantic might be shut down right now but I don't expect it to remain completely dead all season. Next week it appears as if we could see a more active ITCZ over the Atlantic MDR with the ECMWF, GFS and CMC models all showing the potential for some weak development.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#896 Postby NotSparta » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:53 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Loving that once again we can see SAL coverage basin-wide (even into the East Pacific)! Btw, that’s quite a bit of SAL for mid-late August, no wonder the Atlantic is completely shut down and not expected to do much anytime soon. My seasonal numbers of 12/5/2 are obviously too high unless things change fast. Also mid-level dry air is just dominating the basin right now. This is a complete 180 degree from this day a year ago.

Image

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/2qnsk7l.jpg[img]


I've found that the GOES-16 SAL shows significantly more than past metrics, so it's like an apples-to-oranges comparison. Given that it's showing it in the eq EP, it's probably just resolving dry/stable air. This is using the same satellite that has been used for past years:

Image

You are correct wrt mid-lvl dry air, though. Looks pretty bleak out there right now for even just convection outside the ITCZ
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#897 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:55 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Loving that once again we can see SAL coverage basin-wide (even into the East Pacific)! Btw, that’s quite a bit of SAL for mid-late August, no wonder the Atlantic is completely shut down and not expected to do much anytime soon. My seasonal numbers of 12/5/2 are obviously too high unless things change fast. Also mid-level dry air is just dominating the basin right now. This is a complete 180 degree from this day a year ago.

Image

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/2qnsk7l.jpg[img]


I've found that the GOES-16 SAL shows significantly more than past metrics, so it's like an apples-to-oranges comparison. Given that it's showing it in the eq EP, it's probably just resolving dry/stable air. This is using the same satellite that has been used for past years:

Image

You are correct wrt mid-lvl dry air, though. Looks pretty bleak out there right now for even just convection outside the ITCZ

:uarrow: Yeah the GOES-16 graphic appears to take into account all mid-level dry air, not just Saharan dust. SAL has actually retreated a bit lately and is nothing unusually strong for this time of year. The main problem limiting development for now is the mid-level dry air in the MDR.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#898 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:15 am

It's entirely possible I'm not correctly reading into things, but what effect the ocean circulation has on water temperature, and given the dry air in the Atlantic, I am curious to know from someone who might have far more knowledge on the subject than I do if I've found the signature of 2013's circulation weakening in June and if the same was going on this year given the widespread cooler temps (in particular the wrapping appearance, which is making me wonder about the circulation pattern), or if these signatures are part of the AMO or other cycle.

This isn't a season cancel post but a bit of an intrigue more than anything as far as my interpretation of the water temps especially since there's not much else going on in the tropics to talk about.

Image
Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#899 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:11 am

@EricBlake12
Even though the Atlantic continues quiet, there are signs in the very long range that September will pick up in activity. Lots of time left in #hurricane season!


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1031872797092532226


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#900 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:29 am

Hammy wrote:It's entirely possible I'm not correctly reading into things, but what effect the ocean circulation has on water temperature, and given the dry air in the Atlantic, I am curious to know from someone who might have far more knowledge on the subject than I do if I've found the signature of 2013's circulation weakening in June and if the same was going on this year given the widespread cooler temps (in particular the wrapping appearance, which is making me wonder about the circulation pattern), or if these signatures are part of the AMO or other cycle.

This isn't a season cancel post but a bit of an intrigue more than anything as far as my interpretation of the water temps especially since there's not much else going on in the tropics to talk about.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/q4RrCDd.png[/im]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/DmDnfHw.png[/mg]


The current -AMO has been around since February, while 2013's +AMO was still around in April.

I think 2013 was also characterized by a lack of activity worldwide around September, w/ a below avg EP season in addition to the inactive ATL.
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