2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#321 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:22 pm

NDG wrote:
Hammy wrote:It seems like we're in an average to slightly above if no Nino, but below average if there is one setup, but have to ask about 1984--why were there so few hurricanes that year given the high number of storms? Was there lingering Nino effects or something else going on?


I am thinking yes maybe a lingering Nino effects and on top of that the far EPAC off the coast of western MX was very active, late June through late September, with 13 hurricanes which 7 reached major hurricane status, it must have created a lot shear across the Caribbean and southern GOM.

Edit: I also now see that June & July had one heck of a positive PDO, July '84 recorded the second highest PDO on record, the reason why such an active EPAC season that year, IMO.



PDO is about dead neutral as of April
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#322 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:01 pm

NotSparta wrote:
NDG wrote:
Hammy wrote:It seems like we're in an average to slightly above if no Nino, but below average if there is one setup, but have to ask about 1984--why were there so few hurricanes that year given the high number of storms? Was there lingering Nino effects or something else going on?


I am thinking yes maybe a lingering Nino effects and on top of that the far EPAC off the coast of western MX was very active, late June through late September, with 13 hurricanes which 7 reached major hurricane status, it must have created a lot shear across the Caribbean and southern GOM.

Edit: I also now see that June & July had one heck of a positive PDO, July '84 recorded the second highest PDO on record, the reason why such an active EPAC season that year, IMO.



PDO is about dead neutral as of April


If anything getting slightly negative.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#323 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:34 am

NAO obs continue to verify higher than medium and long term forecasts. 7-14 day guidance has been lower than actual. Real time short range also wants to push it lower too quickly over verification. Feedback loop with SSTa is keeping it in check. March -NAO was induced from later winter stratospheric warming event.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#324 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:03 pm

I believe that July will be an extremely telling month for the Atlantic basin. Long range GFS modeling that presently shows possible development in the W. Caribbean in about 8-10 days. This may ultimately never occur. If it does however, might this purely be a factor of Climatology or Pattern Persistence?

I don't think anyone can quite yet make that determined assumption. First off, forget about SST's. By July, MDR SST's will have likely warmed right? Lets even presume however that they are still showing to be anomalously cool. The tropical Atlantic doesn't have an I.Q. or a brain lol. Seas surface temps will either be much warmer or still showing to be below normal but still marginally conducive for cyclone development (about 28C) in some spots between Africa and the Lessor Antilles. Even still, surface pressures, strength of tropical waves, dry mid level layers, or upper level shear or capping are other factors that play into whether conditions are conducive for development. We all know that July conditions become less than favorable throughout much of the Central and Eastern Atlantic as a result of routinely dryer with SAL induced conditions along with typically higher sea level pressures and whipping Easterly trades. Many past active Atlantic seasons have not even begun until at least mid to late July. Naturally, a good number of those years highlight development both north and east of the Lessor Antilles given the seemingly favorable conditions throughout broader regions of the Atlantic. It certainly wont be any milestone to see tropical development occur this July, but I think it might be very telling if it were the third such tropical cyclone to develop and it occurs in the West/Central Caribbean, Gulf, or just east of Florida/ S.E. CONUS. I think that would clearly point to a general region within the basin where some additional development will likely re-occur AND some indication of what general motion and additional future tracks might look like.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#325 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:12 pm

Seems El Niño may actually be an issue for the basin after all. Maybe a quiet season then
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#326 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:24 am

@BenNollWeather
1985 is probably the best Atlantic MDR analog to 2018 in the last 35 years.

However, 1985 had stronger La Niña conditions than the present.

Despite the cool MDR, the U.S. had 6 landfalling hurricanes that year.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1003242470954582018


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#327 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 03, 2018 12:39 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#328 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:16 pm

:uarrow:

I am no expert, but what it appears to mean is the MJO being more attracted to phases 8, 1, and 2, which iirc are unfavorable for El Niño development, and help the Atlantic by having the MJO over Africa and the IO more, which helps tropical waves. That said, 1985 was not very active (but had lots of systems affecting land), since the EPAC was very hyperactive that year. So, I still think 2018's season hinges a lot on EPAC activity.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#329 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:37 pm

NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I am no expert, but what it appears to mean is the MJO being more attracted to phases 8, 1, and 2, which iirc are unfavorable for El Niño development, and help the Atlantic by having the MJO over Africa and the IO more, which helps tropical waves. That said, 1985 was not very active (but had lots of systems affecting land), since the EPAC was very hyperactive that year. So, I still think 2018's season hinges a lot on EPAC activity.


7/8/1 favor a -SOI so I would say those help El Nino chances.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#330 Postby USTropics » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:46 pm

A quick project I put together this morning. I wanted to look at historical storm tracks for 8 of the closest comparable years. I'm using data from 4 of CSU's analog seasons (1986, 2001, 2012, 2014) and 4 seasons that had similar May SST anomaly patterns (1984, 1985, 1989, 1994).

Tracks for all 8 season:
Image

May (ironically were Alberto/Beryl in 2012):
Image

June:
Image

July:
Image

August:
Image

September:
Image

October:
Image

November:
Image

December:
Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#331 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 03, 2018 6:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I am no expert, but what it appears to mean is the MJO being more attracted to phases 8, 1, and 2, which iirc are unfavorable for El Niño development, and help the Atlantic by having the MJO over Africa and the IO more, which helps tropical waves. That said, 1985 was not very active (but had lots of systems affecting land), since the EPAC was very hyperactive that year. So, I still think 2018's season hinges a lot on EPAC activity.


7/8/1 favor a -SOI so I would say those help El Nino chances.


Wait, do you have an image of VP200 wrt MJO phases?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#332 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jun 03, 2018 6:16 pm

In the "for what its worth" observation, oddly it appeared that absolutely every storm that made a Florida landfall that year, formed very close by (from E. of the Bahamas, the Gulf, a couple from the W. Caribbean). Just saying that those may well be very good analogues given that mine and others' assumptions here, are that we will over all see minimal MDR activity and likely much over-all shorter tracks.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#333 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 03, 2018 6:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I am no expert, but what it appears to mean is the MJO being more attracted to phases 8, 1, and 2, which iirc are unfavorable for El Niño development, and help the Atlantic by having the MJO over Africa and the IO more, which helps tropical waves. That said, 1985 was not very active (but had lots of systems affecting land), since the EPAC was very hyperactive that year. So, I still think 2018's season hinges a lot on EPAC activity.


7/8/1 favor a -SOI so I would say those help El Nino chances.



Oops, I got my MJO phases mixed up. :oops:

After comparing with VP200 for a given MJO phase, it appears this setup would be very favorable for phase 2 and 3, with a few phase 1 tendencies, and sometimes (but not usually) phase 5.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#334 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:07 am

Tropics appears fairly bleak at the moment; at least that's how I see it. Pressure rises throughout the Caribbean and east to Africa. Wave activity is practically non-existent with one high amplitude wave appearing to soon emerge off the W. Africa coast. Still, overall upper level conditions dont appear particularly conducive. One thing of note however, there seems to have been a significant level of SST warming during this past week. Most notable to me was a small area in the MDR right off the coast of Africa. Less dramatic but notable warming appears to be occurring in the tropical Atlantic stretching east to west and approx. 20N - 25N, 7 Day SST Anomaly Change seems to indicate warming just north and east of the Lesser Antilles as well.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#335 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:47 am

Our polar orbiting #NOAA20 satellite captured the #dust swirling into the Atlantic off the coast of #Africa today. This composite imagery was captured over the past 24 hours, you can explore it in real-time here: http://goo.gl/G74rVB

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1003618584202006528


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#336 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:19 pm

The NAO has dipped negative for the first time since April, and it also appears the subtropical warm pool has cooled down a little.

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#337 Postby Hammy » Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:48 am

There's been an unusually high amount of troughiness in the southeast, accompanied by below normal temperatures (something the models indicate will continue for the foreseeable future, especially beyond next week)--is there anything that can be read from this as far as the season goes other than a possibly reduced East Coast risk?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#338 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:56 am

Hammy wrote:There's been an unusually high amount of troughiness in the southeast, accompanied by below normal temperatures (something the models indicate will continue for the foreseeable future, especially beyond next week)--is there anything that can be read from this as far as the season goes other than a possibly reduced East Coast risk?


Yes noticed that too here in South Florida. There has just been a complete lack of an "east wind pattern" in the spring and early rainy season this year which features a strong Bermuda High and storms pushed along the west coast of Florida. In fact even recently it is difficult to even get a seabreeze to develop and push inland along coastal SE Florida the past several days which is nothing like we have seen the past few years at this time. The past few years, we have seen quite a stubborn east wind pattern that would hold on for sometimes weeks at a time. This could very well mean the return of the "semi-permanent" east coast trough and a weaker Bermuda High feature come the peak months but as always it is too early to say for sure. That is why at least for Florida, I would say any threats could originate from the south (Caribbean) (or "close by" development) rather than Cape Verde long-trackers like Irma from last year.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#339 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:02 am

@MJVentrice
Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic's Main Development Region continue to plummet... New data continues to point towards a less active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Image

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1004014745874247687


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#340 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:18 am

cycloneye wrote:@MJVentrice
Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic's Main Development Region continue to plummet... New data continues to point towards a less active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


https://i.imgur.com/wRld1if.jpg

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 5874247687


I do agree a less active year this year than last year. But I wonder how much of this data is being impacted by the two areas I circled in the latest SST anomalies map below which should easily recover by the peak months of the season? We know the MDR in the Caribbean and near the islands will always be warm enough and even if the MDR between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is running below normal, that could mean these waves end up waiting to develop until further west closer to the islands or in the Caribbean.

How is the SAL looking out in the MDR this year as opposed to previous years? If that is running below normal that can offset these SSTs anomalies I would think.

Image
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