2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[TheStormExpert]

Is it September 8th or October 8th?

With a strengthening newly designated Hurricane Michael entering the Gulf, and a endless ongoing Leslie in the Central Atlantic soon to become a hurricane AGAIN, also a TW just west of Africa and SSW of the Cape Verde Islands being newly designated Invest 93L you really would think it was September over October if you hadn’t looked at the calendar.

The MJO is primarily responsible too for this uptick in activity and the basin-wide satellite shows it well with convection all across the tropical Atlantic. Got to give credit to Ben Noll for calling this October burst weeks in advance.

[tolakram]

It's the October secondary peak.

IMO this is when Florida is most at risk.

[CyclonicFury]

The Atlantic is likely going to finish above average in named storms, hurricanes and ACE. Majors will probably be about average. Overall this season has been significantly more active than most experts predicted.

[SconnieCane]

It's interesting to me how we arrived where we're at for 2018 ATL TC activity.

Despite some less-than-favorable indicators and a dead August, there were a lot of "Don't let your guard down" posts here and on other weather forums in the pre-season and mid-season that posited various scenarios for how the season could be more active/impactful than expected. What's interesting/surprising is that pretty much ALL of those scenarios have panned out, bringing us to the cusp of an above average/possibly well above average when all is said and done season.

1.) Active subtropics due to above-average SSTs there.

2.) A somewhat hostile MDR that is nonetheless able to spawn at least one vigorous 'cane, which is then driven to a US EC landfall by anomalously strong ridging (Florence).

3.) The October W. Carib gyre spins off a system toward the NE Gulf Coast, at the same time the persistent Caribbean shear belt weakens for it to make a run at major status (Michael).

[galaxy401]

Yep so 2018 will be remembered as an active and destructive hurricane season...

[SconnieCane]

Scratch "major" in my last post and replace with "monster."

[StruThiO]

Derek ort threw the h word on Twitter earlier

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1049994179877761024




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1049994775934455808




Now, can we please put the 2013 comparisons down for good during midseason

[Kingarabian]

With a lot of Atlantic hurricanes affecting people since 2016, 2013 would be a blessing.

[StruThiO]

oh I agree completely. What's happening in the NHem this year is crazy

[KWT]

This season has been quite similar to 2002, decent number of storms, though alot at lower quality. Both seasons had two much stronger storms, though none compare to Michael. We even had our Kyle in the form of Leslie!

[StruThiO]

Above average and deadly 2018 season.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1050142317451997184

[supercane4867]

With 3 CAT4+ landfalls on CONUS and 5 including PR and Virgin Islands. The 12 year major hurricane drought seems like forever ago.

[Ntxw]

It has been another devastating season. Almost makes you sick to your stomach for the poor folks in harms way. I think we've all had about enough. Not just in the Atlantic, but landfalls worldwide.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't think we will see much more this season, hopefully!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1050323104726016000

[tolakram]

Haven't we seen this before? Eventually it will be December and I'll believe it.

[chaser1]

It has been another devastating season. Almost makes you sick to your stomach for the poor folks in harms way. I think we've all had about enough. Not just in the Atlantic, but landfalls worldwide.

Amen to that. If someone decides to start a new thread "Wish-Casting Cold Fronts" count me IN!

[chaser1]

Above average and deadly 2018 season.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1050142317451997184

This season almost feels like it just won't end, but "this guy" #23-chaser1=14/7/2 (Final).... would have no argument if it did
(But at this point I've just got to believe that someone among the several who predicted "15" named storms will eventually take the shiny gold medal LOL)

[chaser1]

Haven't we seen this before? Eventually it will be December and I'll believe it.

Right? It just feels like the type of year where another "Mitch" might just come in under the November wire. THAT would be something Central America could do without.

[toad strangler]

None of us can do anything about it so whatever happens we just observe, track, and learn.

[TheStormExpert]

May be yet another quick burst at the end of the month. The 06z GFS May be hinting at that with a well developed hurricane being shown in the SW Caribbean in the long-range.

 https://twitter.com/weatherbell/status/1050742746288455680