2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#41 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:59 pm

StruThiO wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.


is the -NAO expected to persist for very long?

Not really, but it is uncertain.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#42 Postby NotSparta » Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:37 pm

StruThiO wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.


is the -NAO expected to persist for very long?


Long range EPS keeps it around for about a month, could change though
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:00 am

The ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for May,June and July is out and looks bad for those who like to track many systems.Maybe a factor for this model to show very high pressures in Atlantic may be the forecast for ENSO of warming conditions at Niño 3.4.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#44 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:35 am

cycloneye wrote:The ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for May,June and July is out and looks bad for those who like to track many systems.Maybe a factor for this model to show very high pressures in Atlantic may be the forecast for ENSO of warming conditions at Niño 3.4.

Image

Image

The Euro has a known high bias for Atlantic SLP. It’s also interesting to note that over half of the Euro ensembles still have ENSO negative by July.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#45 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:52 am

:uarrow: Here’s the March 2017 Euro Pressure Outlook for the JAS period for anyone looking to see how thinks were shaping up last year.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#46 Postby chaser1 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Here’s the March 2017 Euro Pressure Outlook for the JAS period for anyone looking to see how thinks were shaping up last year.

Image


Kinda make one want to laugh (from a misguided data perspective, certainly NOT given the very contrary results of the 2017 Atlantic Season destruction and fatalities). I'll give all the kudos to the EURO for its mid range modeling, but I just don't give much credence to any of the Global's anymore when viewing their long long long range projections. As for present ENSO and leaning toward possible NINO projection, I'd only buy into the belief that ENSO temps will likely wane toward less cool and near average. Even if ENSO continues to gradually track into the warm bias a little, assuming that we do not see a significant spike before August then I would not anticipate any significant impact to Atlantic cyclone development. Remember this too, there does seem to be a several week to month delay from appreciable ENSO conditions to affect the Atlantic. Even if we were to see a more significant El Nino begin to develop Sept/October, I don't believe the Atlantic would feel significant impact until possibly mid October/November. Just my thoughts, anyway.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#47 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:11 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#48 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:12 am

not good for the gom!!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:36 am

Is very warm in GOM that is over +1.3C, but there will be swings up and down as it always occur so let's see how are things when it counts after June 1.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#50 Postby Alyono » Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:40 am

we really shouldn't spend that much time worrying about SST anomalies in late February. We've seen many times that these things can flip quickly as we enter into May

Think we're just adding extra stress to our lives worrying about February anomalies. They mean nothing in terms of if we will see an active season
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#51 Postby StruThiO » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:12 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#52 Postby NotSparta » Sat Mar 03, 2018 6:16 am



Wonder if it'll stay that way or if it's because of winter.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#53 Postby NDG » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:28 am

Regarding the ECMWF's MSLP forecast for the Atlantic this early on in the year it has been most times biased with higher pressures than what it has turned out to be in years when it has had a difficulty forecasting the ENSO.
IMO.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:37 pm

Nice graphic on second tweet.

@MichaelRLowry
Last week the Gulf of Mexico recorded its warmest weekly anomaly on record at 1.5°C above the 1982-2011 average. That's some serious warmth.


Image

Image

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/970789803586449409




@MichaelRLowry
And for those who prefer the bouncing ball, here's how this week's anomalous Gulf warmth compares to all other weeks on record.


 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/970820758623617024


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#55 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:23 pm

Negative NAO has erased the below average anomalies in the MDR as expected:

Image

By the way, 'the Euro shows above average sea pressures across the Atlantic for peak, could be a slow season' could be copy and pasted for every season since 2012. It's best not to pay it any mind.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#56 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:38 pm

SST anomalies are still well below-normal in the MDR east of 35W. Even though temps are well above normal in the Gulf, I see no temps as high as 80F yet. An "X" degree anomaly in early March doesn't necessarily translate to an "X" degree anomaly in August-September.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#57 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:39 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Negative NAO has erased the below average anomalies in the MDR as expected:

https://i.imgur.com/xZszlw9.png

By the way, 'the Euro shows above average sea pressures across the Atlantic for peak, could be a slow season' could be copy and pasted for every season since 2012. It's best not to pay it any mind.

I’m currently leaning to a slightly above average season since most of the models are showing ENSO remaining neutral for peak. There just doesn’t seem to be enough time for a significant El Niño to develop by the peak of hurricane season.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#58 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:02 pm

My cold-mongering coworker and I were looking over Pacific/Atlantic SST anomalies of the past (since 1981) to try to find a good analog for what's out there now. The best analog, SST-wise, appears to be 2014, mainly from the central Pacific through the east Atlantic. Can't find any other year that even looks close. Of course, this doesn't mean that we'll only have 8 named storms this season. SSTs are only one factor.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#59 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:16 pm

March NMME shows a “not bad, not great” setup for he Atlantic. ENSO-Neutral without a strong AMO signature. Also shows mostly near average precip anomalies across the MDR.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#60 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:My cold-mongering coworker and I were looking over Pacific/Atlantic SST anomalies of the past (since 1981) to try to find a good analog for what's out there now. The best analog, SST-wise, appears to be 2014, mainly from the central Pacific through the east Atlantic. Can't find any other year that even looks close. Of course, this doesn't mean that we'll only have 8 named storms this season. SSTs are only one factor.

[img]http://wxman57.com/images/compare.JPG[img]


Also both years had very similar warm pools at the sub-surface.
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