#1031 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:20 am
Fwiw from Larry Cosgrove yesterday, Flo may not end up being the only high impact CONUS TC due to the possibility of something new and strong in a dangerous position in about 2 weeks, which is hinted at by the last several GEFS runs (6Z posted by gatorcane in models thread). Please don’t shoot the messengers:
“One of the complications is that while many of the forecast models had earlier been predicting a robust El Nino, what has actually happened in a positive neutral ENSO with a tendency to remain over and west of the International Dateline. This alignment, called a Modoki event, will permit tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Sargasso Seas (as shearing wind profiles mostly stay along and off of the Pacific shoreline. Since the ensemble members of the various equations show a heat ridge presence over the southern and eastern sections of the U.S. in the 11 - 15 day, any transition to colder air might be enhanced by a combination of a warm-core feature and a frontal structure, the likes of which are shown in the analog outlooks which foresee a cooler turn in the eastern third of the country on the last day of September.”
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