2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[SFLcane]

I'am really not liking at all the way things look in terms of steering is concerned for septermber. We got lucky as its been stated with this new wave off the african coast recurving harmelessly BUT afterwards models show a very active wave train heading westward. Lets hope things reverse

[TheStormExpert]

I'am really not liking at all the way things look in terms of steering is concerned for septermber. We got lucky as its been stated with this new wave off the african coast recurving harmelessly BUT afterwards models show a very active wave train heading westward. Lets hope things reverse

It also looks as if the two waves behind Potential Tropical Cyclone #6 don’t instantly develop thus head further west. There’s clearly a weakness in the Subtropical Eastern Atlantic which will allow for the a quick and easy escape route for the first wave.

Yes, if trends continue this may not be that below average/quiet season that everyone was hoping for after last years destructive season.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I'am really not liking at all the way things look in terms of steering is concerned for septermber. We got lucky as its been stated with this new wave off the african coast recurving harmelessly BUT afterwards models show a very active wave train heading westward. Lets hope things reverse

It also looks as if the two waves behind Potential Tropical Cyclone #6 don’t instantly develop thus head further west. There’s clearly a weakness in the Subtropical Eastern Atlantic which will allow for the a quick and easy escape route for the first wave.

Yes, if trends continue this may not be that below average/quiet season that everyone was hoping for after last years destructive season.

This is why I still think our seasonal totals will end up on par with 2007. Around 15 storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors. If this happens, it wouldn’t exactly be the “quiet” season we were hoping for unfortunately.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1035190269430431745

[hurricaneCW]

That's an ugly steering pattern for September, no east coast trough this time.

[gatorcane]

Wow look what is to the east of 90l..

[toad strangler]

Wow look what is to the east of 90l..

Size don’t matter. It’s the motion of the ocean that matters lol

Seriously though, yuuuge system there.

[galaxy401]

Is that the wave that models are keen on moving directly west to become a potential Caribbean threat or is it the one behind it?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1035139655308664832



 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1035142037560016897



 https://twitter.com/Vortmax29/status/1035159690282295302



 https://twitter.com/HowSmart/status/1035184792847958016



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032837916186365952



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1035299883866103808



The 00Z EPS forecasts for the month of September indicate persistent East-Coast ridging with potential TC threats to the Gulf, FL peninsula, and GA/Carolinas (based on heights' positioning). The most favourable period for landfalls runs from today to at least 13 September, according to the ensemble mean. The key is whether a well-placed system will be situated under low vertical wind shear and sufficient moisture to allow for development.

[Shell Mound]

Information related to factors other than ridging:
 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1034633815803748352



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1034645640704352256



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1034634869270343680



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1034574296486694912



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1035276779123077125



More information on how the Pacific pattern relates to ridging:
 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1034977109138186241



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1034978746527305728



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1034979068129763329



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1034980275342790657



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1035161495397695490

[NDG]

Eric Webb

@webberweather
Given that we're at the peak of Atlantic hurricane season and the MDR won't be half asleep in the coming weeks, I really don't like the placement of #Jebi's wave train in the Western NP. The SE Canada/New England ridge isn't going anywhere if this comes to fruition... Yikes.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1035501606928875527

[toad strangler]

Uh, when was the last time we had this type and widespread ominous outlook for possible pattern that could lead to landfalling CONUS storms? Geezzzz

[psyclone]

A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern.

Keep in mind that while August is a very active month overall it is very backloaded. We're climbing the climo ramp as of August 1 but that climb starts from a low baseline so while a quiet first half of august isn't unusual a quiet second half is pretty much unheard of. As Dr Gray used to say...the bell rings on 8-20. Enjoy the down time while it lasts...because even in "quiet" years we're inching into the hot zone.

I'm really surprised that August turned out to be such a bust...I would have bet heavily against such an outcome and lost big time. On to king September...which looks meaningfully more interesting based upon the tweets storm above referencing persistent ridging in the east.

[SFLcane]

Not sure i understand 2 mets contradicting themselves....Micheal Lowry said on twiiter shear for the first time is running near normal in the caribbean and then Phil K comes this morning and lays down the hammer saying its the highest its been in years again. Lol what gives..

[Ntxw]

Not sure i understand 2 mets contradicting themselves....Micheal Lowry said on twiiter shear for the first time is running near normal in the caribbean and then Phil K comes this morning and lays down the hammer saying its the highest its been in years again. Lol what gives..

There are two different viewpoints from both tweets. Michael Lowry is talking short term, of recent days shear has decreased from the very high levels. Phil K is noting the 30 days average, meaning August as a whole was very high in this region, after a very high July.

[SFLcane]

These ominous steering pattern posts going into september can make everyone a bit uneasy BUT remember if there is no hurricane to take advantage it's worth nothing. Lets hope it stays that way.

[toad strangler]

These ominous steering pattern posts going into september can make everyone a bit uneasy BUT remember if there is no hurricane to take advantage it's worth nothing. Lets hope it stays that way.

Yep, just like when great winter blocking setups get wasted in the NE Due to the lack of the main ingredient. The snowstorm.

[Bocadude85]

These ominous steering pattern posts going into september can make everyone a bit uneasy BUT remember if there is no hurricane to take advantage it's worth nothing. Lets hope it stays that way.

Well let’s hope the the 0z Euro is wrong, it shows 2 systems behind future Florence heading westward.

[toad strangler]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/jackson_dill/status/1035536753132806145?s=21[/Tweet]

^^^^^ Not sure why tweet isn’t loading

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/jackson_dill/status/1035536753132806145




^^^^^ Not sure why tweet isn’t loading