2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:06 pm

Here is our annual thread for the indicators topic this time the 2018 North Atlantic indicators.Is important to have this thread early to see how things are evolving in the important factor of the steering as we will see based on that which areas in the basin may have visits of tropical systems. Also,it will be important to see how the pressures will be,how the shear is doing,how are the MSLP forecasts going to be and how the waters are in terms of being more warm or not. And also we have to follow how things are evolving in the Saharan air Layer and in the Vertical Instability factor. If anyone wants to comment about ENSO,you can do it here.Post away your take folks.

Note=This thread is not to post forecast numbers but to discuss about how things are going in the factors this thread is enlisting. There will be our annual poll for that starting on April 1rst. As a matter of fact,this thread will help you a bit to decide about the numbers game with all the information that will be posted.

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml



ECMWF MSLP Updates

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#2 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:39 pm

Just a bit of long range stuff that shouldn't be taken seriously so early, but it looks like shear may be lower towards the beginning of the season than usual:

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:58 pm

Clearly the instability graphs are misleading as the Tropical Atlantic was on fire in 2017. So take that into account.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Clearly the instability graphs are misleading as the Tropical Atlantic was on fire in 2017. So take that into account.

Yeah, I think the instability average must be too high. It has been below normal since 2010 and it is hard to believe, since 2017 had quite possibly the most intense MDR season ever.

Regarding SSTs, I wouldn't be surprised or concerned if we see occasional occurrences of where the MDR and far north Atlantic cools - all it would take to reverse this is a Spring -NAO. The main factor to watch in the near future is ENSO and how that evolves. There appears to be a building warm pool over the Western Pacific. If this expands eastwards and strengthens, we could see a weak to moderate El Nino event come next hurricane season. However, models are not optimistic on El Nino chances, though they said we would likely have an El Nino in 2017 which did not happen. If we do see an El Nino though, I don't expect it to be very strong.

Image

A hyperactive season is definitely a possibility if El Nino does not form. However, if El Nino does form, we could be looking at a season similar to 1979 or 2002, with a few major storms, since the Atlantic overall seems to be in the active phase of the AMO. It seems unlikely we will see a third consecutive La Nina year, so the most likely outcome is ENSO-Neutral. There's also the unlikely chance we see a THC weakening similar to 2013, though this scenario is not very likely (and even if that did occur, we'd probably see a season somewhat different than 2013). I think we should see at least 10 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes if a weak El Nino forms, with the maximum being around 20 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes if everything works out perfectly for the Atlantic.

We still have 5 months to go and a lot can change during that time period.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / ENSO / Steering / Shear / Instability

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:28 pm

Hopefully,those +0.4C MDR readings go down a bit when the season starts and especially in August and September.I dont want to see another threat to the islands after what this region experienced in 2017.
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2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / ENSO / Steering / Shear / Instability

#6 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:14 pm

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Fig. 1. North-Atlantic SST anomalies for 1 Dec 2017–1 Jan 2018 compared to those for the same period in 2014–17. Note the much warmer trend over the far North Atlantic and the MDR (Main Development Region).

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Fig. 2. North-Atlantic SST anomalies for 1 Dec 2017–1 Jan 2018. The overall look for December averages out to a positive (+) AMO.

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Fig. 3. Same as Fig. 2, but shows change in Dec 2017 compared to Nov 2017. Note that the AMO mostly stayed the same or even rose.

So far, the signs continue to appear conducive to a potentially active 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, at least as far as SSTs are concerned. The AMO region as defined by Klotzbach et al. covers 20-70°N, 40-10°W for SSTs, 15-50°N, 60-10°W for sea-level pressures. Currently, the SST data indicate a near-to-slightly-above-average AMO index for the latest monthly value, that of Dec 2017, which is similar to that of Nov 2017, indicating that the positive-leaning AMO is holding its own so far, despite a largely +NAO index, meaning stronger-than-average trade winds over the tropical Atlantic. The fact that the SST configuration persists despite the +NAO is noteworthy.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / ENSO / Steering / Shear / Instability

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hopefully,those +0.4C MDR readings go down a bit when the season starts and especially in August and September.I dont want to see another threat to the islands after what this region experienced in 2017.

What is disquieting is that the AMO over the past few months (Nov–Dec 2017) has actually maintained itself or strengthened vs. Aug–Oct '17. Thus far, the Atlantic looks to be the warmest it has been at this time of year (early winter) since 2013. The AMO index has maintained itself or strengthened for the first time in Nov–Dec since at least 2013. Another factor is that some of the heat from a major El Niño tends to propagate into the Atlantic a few years later, meaning Atlantic-basin SSTs could peak in the summer and early fall of 2018 before cooling in 2019, given that the major El Niño occurred in 2015–16. This suggests that, barring another El Niño, 2018 could be 1933 (or 2005) relative to 2017's role as 1932 (or 2004). 2018 could mark the apogee of the AMO and one of the biggest hurricane seasons on record, if not the biggest ACE-wise, if all the factors line up, unfortunately. Here's hoping it won't! :eek:

Regarding heat content in the tropical Pacific: didn't the subsurface in spring '17 suggest El Niño but subside due to lack of atmospheric support (westerly wind bursts)? If so, then 2018 could just as easily be another '17. Though the current subsurface warmth in the western tropical Pacific might suggest a potential El Niño later this year, that all depends on how the atmosphere behaves. If westerly wind bursts fail to show up, a bifurcated basin may emerge again, just as it did in 2017, with a warm eastern Pacific and cool west-central Pacific emerging, at least initially, but overall balancing out as neutral ENSO. The key is whether the atmosphere prevents all that warm water from upwelling to the surface and spreading westward. If we see significant westerly wind bursts, then El Niño is a possibility in time for peak season. If those wind bursts are delayed, weak, or fail to develop in time, then El Niño is unlikely to affect the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. We shall see! 8-)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Check daily updated graphics on first post)

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:41 am

@EricBlake12
Remarkable to me how warm the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are still, despite all the cold air. Probably gave #blizzard2018 an added burst of energy!






https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/948918830637699072
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Check daily updated graphics on first post)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:34 pm

The NAO is forecast to turn positive and if that comes thru,it will cool the waters in Central Atlantic and MDR regions but how much it will cool if it does is the question,so until it occurs is only a waiting game.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Check daily updated graphics on first post)

#10 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:The NAO is forecast to turn positive and if that comes thru,it will cool the waters in Central Atlantic and MDR regions but how much it will cool if it does is the question,so until it occurs is only a waiting game.

Image


Ironically, I also noticed how the E. Atlantic MDR SST's have recently seemed to have warmed nicely. Up to recent, it seems like MDR SST anomalies have been comparatively less warm than those SST anomolies further north throughout much of the higher latitudes in the Atlantic. I wonder if a positive NAO were to continue, whether that would necessarily cool equatorial East/Central Atlantic water temps or if that could somehow translate to a cooling of Atlantic SST's limited to latitudes north of 15N-20N?

On a different note, I believe the EURO was projecting lowest surface pressures for most of the Caribbean (as well as the E. Pacific) for April. I'd be curious to see how long range forecasts evolve for May/June. This time last year, I recall firmly believing that no warm ENSO would manifest during the 2017 Spring/Summer. Here we are again with a Central Pacific area of warming that many are pondering might migrate eastward. In contrast, we're already seeing equatorial regions well east toward the East PAC which are showing distinct cooling anomalies. I'd bet bottom dollar that we'll simply continue to see weak to possibly more moderate La Nina conditions continue into the Spring. My guess is that we'll see those Nina conditions begin to wane early to mid Summer. I may be wrong but my recollection was that a weak cool to neutral ENSO was actually more indicative of an increased threat to the U.S. and Greater Antilles than those years where a Moderate to Strong Nina season was still in play. Assuming no full reversal actually occurs and regardless whether June/July/August is then exhibiting a "cool" to near neutral ENSO or more moderate NINA conditions, I believe that the two far more important factors than any of the above mentioned conditions would be
1) how much more (or less) conducive might conditions be over the Western Atlantic as compared to Eastern Atlantic MDR breeding grounds, and
2) How the W. Atlantic steering evolves as we approach June/July

Sure, 2018 could prove the Atlantic to actually be the massive "ACE-HOLE" ( :cheesy: ) that some are beginning to suspect. That and $2.00 still wont buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks, nor would it necessarily mean that most Cape Verde systems might ever cross W. of 50W Longitude if any big bad mid Atlantic trough loomed throughout most of the season. On the other hand, what if a positive NAO took place resulting in relative cooler Central and Eastern Atlantic SST's? Now, imagine a similarly impressive 2017 tropical wave train that was further capped from development UNTIL reaching points even further west where both SST''s and especially overall instability was distinctly higher. Such could potentially spell a deserved respite for those E. Caribbean islands that were pounded last season, but potentially a greater threat for the U.S., or possibly an even greater threat for the Central Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. I think those of us not anticipating El Nino to make a return anytime soon, are collectively anticipating "the Rocket" (2018 Atlantic Hurricane season) and its launch fuel being slowly wheeled and approaching the launch pad. Over the years though, my perspective and pragmatic interest has shifted from worrying a bit less about the rocket and a good deal more towards "who (actually what) will be steering the damn thing once lift-off actually occurs" lol!

For that reason and in that line of thought, I was wondering if anybody particularly recalled when it was during last Spring or early Summer, when mid to long range models began to fairly consistently forecast increasing W. Atlantic mid level ridging which broadly evolved as a significant steering dynamic during much of the 2017 Atlantic season? I'm not sure when it was that I started noticing W. Atlantic GFS 500mb forecast heights trending higher (more blocking and further West steering) but thought I recalled some beginning evidence occurring by early June (even though that still could have proven way early to assess how the overall CONUS long wave pattern might evolve). I seem to think we were already beginning to see signs of the prior Winter Season Greenland Vortex shifting further west with its attending deep E. CONUS sharp troughs seemingly digging less sharply southward and eventually tilting more and more Southwestward over time. As I sit here wondering whether these possibly evolving signals last year were something I might have observed even earlier (March, April, May??), I was curious if anyone else happened to take notice when the commonly North/South U.S. East coast troughs seemed to increasingly become more sharply positively tilted toward the Southwest?

Even now, this winter has clearly exhibited a more west and south shift with regard to cold outbreaks from Texas to Florida with our current East Coast Winter Bomb (I hate that term) seemingly tracking fairly sharply northward and along the Eastern Seaboard. With plenty of Winter left to occur, I'm still a bit surprised that Florida is once again receiving the cold outbreaks that we're seeing, rather than the projected very progressive La Nina pattern that might cause us in Florida to be limited to frontal passages followed by an immediate Northeast wind shift, with little upper air pattern support for sustained northwest/northerly arctic intrusions. Whether or not our present Winter pattern is more or less locked in place is a question hard to know. Guessing how the present long-wave pattern further evolves as we move into Spring is an even bigger question mark. Obviously, its hard to know whether we might be observing the beginning of a pattern change or trend, verses a simple blip in the present steering flow. However those changes eventually occur though, are what I think will be our first subtle tip-off regarding where that launch-pad approaching (and possibly high octane?) Rocket may be broadly aimed this '18 Hurricane Season.

I don't always drink warm liquids during Florida Winters but when I do, I prefer some REALLY hot tea over Dos Equis. :cold:

Stay Thirsty my Friends....... and Happy New Years!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Daily updated graphics on first post)

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:07 pm

The winter +NAO is not really a surprise, it has been that way most of the past few years where MDR SSTs drop near or below average during the winter months. It will likely flip to -NAO for winter and spring, allowing the MDR to warm up in time for hurricane season.
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#12 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:21 am

@philklotzbach
December 2017 Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) value using @ColoradoStateU definition was +0.3 standard deviations - the highest December value of the AMO since 2012.




https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/948973122828431360



https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/949660898498695168
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:44 pm

Yikes! Looks like August/September at MDR.

@philklotzbach
The Atlantic Meridional Mode was at its 2nd highest December value on record (since 1950) in 2017. Warm tropical north Atlantic with relatively cool tropical south Atlantic. Persistence (or lack thereof) of these anomalies could play an important role in 2018 #hurricane season.


Image



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/950858768362881024
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yikes! Looks like August/September at MDR.

@philklotzbach
The Atlantic Meridional Mode was at its 2nd highest December value on record (since 1950) in 2017. Warm tropical north Atlantic with relatively cool tropical south Atlantic. Persistence (or lack thereof) of these anomalies could play an important role in 2018 #hurricane season.


Image



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/950858768362881024

If the AMO maintains itself, we will likely see a slightly below normal or near normal season if El Nino forms, and a well above average season if ENSO stays neutral or La Nina. I'd say chances of a "dead" season for 2018 are very low at this time barring a major THC crash or rapidly developing strong El Nino, neither of which is likely.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yikes! Looks like August/September at MDR.

@philklotzbach
The Atlantic Meridional Mode was at its 2nd highest December value on record (since 1950) in 2017. Warm tropical north Atlantic with relatively cool tropical south Atlantic. Persistence (or lack thereof) of these anomalies could play an important role in 2018 #hurricane season.


]https://i.imgur.com/cvs9GYV.png



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/950858768362881024



@philklotzbach
And from an Atlantic hurricane perspective, several of the seasons following the most positive AMM Decembers were very active seasons like 1996, 1999 and 2005. Others were near average like 2002 and 2006. And still others were duds like 1956 and 2013.




https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/950895920417304576
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#16 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:53 pm

Right now all signs would point to an above average/hyperactive season. Of course it's only January and there is so much time for considerable change. Just look at the predicted El Niño being forecasted last January that didn't even COME CLOSE to materializing.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Right now all signs would point to an above average/hyperactive season. Of course it's only January and there is so much time for considerable change. Just look at the predicted El Niño being forecasted last January that didn't even COME CLOSE to materializing.

Looks like the warm pool at the subsurface is starting to break up, that would be bad news but it also looks like the cold area is starting to break up also in the ENSO subsurface so maybe a neutral ENSO going into the hurricane season
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:18 am

The MSLP forecast for April,May and June is up.It shows fairly high pressure in the Atlantic Basin but in 2017 at ASO,it had high pressures and we know what happened so I would not take these forecasts as a stone thing.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#19 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:48 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability

#20 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:31 am

cycloneye wrote:The MSLP forecast for April,May and June is up.It shows fairly high pressure in the Atlantic Basin but in 2017 at ASO,it had high pressures and we know what happened so I would not take these forecasts as a stone thing.

Image


This is interesting to me, I believe that last year at this time the forecast was for very high pressures, and we all know how that turned out. Considering there’s a really high bias, and it’s only showing neutral to the north and slightly positive to the south, it is for sure something to watch. Again, it’s way too early to know exactly what will happen, but it is interesting.
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