2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[StruThiO]

will be interesting if something like this continues.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://wxmaps.org/hurpot.php

[NotSparta]

[img removed]https://i.imgur.com/eojae95.png[/img]

will be interesting if something like this continues.

Yeah mid latitudes are cooling and far north Atlantic is warming. MDR is still cold though

[NotSparta]

New OSPO SSTA map out for April 9. MDR appears warmer in west, and northeast, little change elsewhere

[gatorcane]

It is early but looking at the Atlantic compared to last year at this time (see above map for 2018 and below for 2017), seems we almost have the reverse where this year we have cooler than normal MDR and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic. That could mean back to another season of systems which really don't take off until moving out of the MDR/tropics similar to what we saw in years prior to 2017:

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I’m not too impressed with the signals I’m seeing right now for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. I know just like last April things can change on a dime but I’m slowly starting to become less bullish in what I think will happen during this years Atlantic Hurricane Season. A quantity over quality season seems reasonable at the moment. Of course with all the devastation and destruction last season brought I’m sure many will be fine with just that.

[cycloneye]

Yeah I’m not too impressed with the signals I’m seeing right now for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. I know just like last April things can change on a dime but I’m slowly starting to become less bullish in what I think will happen during this years Atlantic Hurricane Season. A quantity over quality season seems reasonable at the moment. Of course with all the devastation and destruction last season brought I’m sure many will be fine with just that.

I just want that anything that forms in 2018 season goes to open waters and have a free landfalling season.

[NotSparta]

International Desk seeing a tropical wave, not much elsewhere

AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 36W AND SOUTH OF
07N. IN INTERACTION WITH THE ATLANTIC ITCZ...IS TO TRIGGER
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES OF BRASIL
DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HRS...WITH DAILY MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. THE WAVE
ENTERS AMAPA IN BRASIL/FRENCH GUIANA EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING...TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. AS IT BUILDS WEST ACROSS SURINAME ON SATURDAY THIS
INCREASES TO 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. NOTE THAT A TRADE
WIND SURGE AND DRY/DUSTY AIR TRAIL THIS PERTURBATION.

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/f ... pmd.ca.txt

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/984513492102320129

[NotSparta]

A WETTER PATTERN CONTINUES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR MID-WEEK
AS UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AFFECT THE UNITED STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND INTERACTS WITH A MOIST PLUME TRAILING BEHIND AN
EARLY-SEASON AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... =1&fmt=reg

It doesn't appear anywhere else, but this is pretty early.

[LarryWx]

Yeah I’m not too impressed with the signals I’m seeing right now for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. I know just like last April things can change on a dime but I’m slowly starting to become less bullish in what I think will happen during this years Atlantic Hurricane Season. A quantity over quality season seems reasonable at the moment. Of course with all the devastation and destruction last season brought I’m sure many will be fine with just that.

It doesn't matter how much destruction the previous season brought because I always desire a low impact season on land. However, last season's high level of devastation & destructiveness re-enforces that desire. So, hopefully we get El Niño. Also, because of the desire for quiet, I'm not crazy about the use of the word "quality" by some to refer to a season with many strong and/or large hurricanes because the word "quality" usually implies something of a positive nature.

*Edited

[Kazmit]

Yeah I’m not too impressed with the signals I’m seeing right now for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. I know just like last April things can change on a dime but I’m slowly starting to become less bullish in what I think will happen during this years Atlantic Hurricane Season. A quantity over quality season seems reasonable at the moment. Of course with all the devastation and destruction last season brought I’m sure many will be fine with just that.

It doesn't matter how much destruction the previous season brought because I always desire a low impact season on land. However, last season's high level of devastation & destructiveness re-enforces that desire. So, hopefully we get El Niño. Also, because of the desire for quiet, I'm not crazy about the use of the word "quality" by some to refer to a season with many strong and/or large hurricanes because the word "quality" usually implies something of a positive nature.

*Edited

There being many strong hurricanes doesn't always mean a more impactful season- look at 2010 for example, with many out to sea tracks. And I'm sure quality is referring to the strength of the storms, and not that they are a positive thing for those affected.

[LarryWx]

Yeah I’m not too impressed with the signals I’m seeing right now for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. I know just like last April things can change on a dime but I’m slowly starting to become less bullish in what I think will happen during this years Atlantic Hurricane Season. A quantity over quality season seems reasonable at the moment. Of course with all the devastation and destruction last season brought I’m sure many will be fine with just that.

It doesn't matter how much destruction the previous season brought because I always desire a low impact season on land. However, last season's high level of devastation & destructiveness re-enforces that desire. So, hopefully we get El Niño. Also, because of the desire for quiet, I'm not crazy about the use of the word "quality" by some to refer to a season with many strong and/or large hurricanes because the word "quality" usually implies something of a positive nature.

*Edited

There being many strong hurricanes doesn't always mean a more impactful season- look at 2010 for example, with many out to sea tracks. And I'm sure quality is referring to the strength of the storms, and not that they are a positive thing for those affected.

I know it doesn't. But if we don't have many strong hurricanes at all, that in itself would help our chances of having low land impact.
I realize that's what's meant by quality but I'd prefer the word "strong" because "quality" usually refers to something desirable. One meaning of quality: "the degree of excellence of something". Excellence implies something good.

Anyway, I'm hoping for El Niño because that would increase the chance for fewer storms as well as weaker storms on average. We'll need to get past the spring barrier before I can have confidence in what ENSO we'll likely have. Many including myself thought we were going to have El Niño last season and look what happened.

[SFLcane]

Unfortunately As wxman57 stated previously significant impacts from El Niño this season appear unlikely. I think there’s way to much focus on water temps in April I think the Atlantic will be ready come ASO to start pumping out hurricanes.

[weathaguyry]

It appears that the MDR is warming up a little, as well as the waters near and east of Greenland. This probably doesn't mean too much for the hurricane season, since it's only April and the SST anomalies could still change a lot, but it would be interesting if the -AMO look would flip to a more +AMO look.

[Kazmit]

I also noticed the significant cooling in the gulf. Is that unusual?

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: I also noticed the significant cooling in the gulf. Is that unusual?

Probably caused by the recent frontal passage

[USTropics]

:uarrow: I also noticed the significant cooling in the gulf. Is that unusual?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. You can see from recent satellite loops that cloud coverage coupled with anomalously strong winds stirring up the surface are the primary factors:

http://www.iweathernet.com/satellite-images-and-loops/fast-7-day-satellite-loop

[psyclone]

:uarrow: I also noticed the significant cooling in the gulf. Is that unusual?

That map is just showing the 7 day change in anomalies. The above normal anoms have abated somewhat over the past week but the Gulf remains near to somewhat above normal overall. Not that it matters for the Gulf anyway...it always has sufficient OHC when it counts.

[NDG]

It appears that the MDR is warming up a little, as well as the waters near and east of Greenland. This probably doesn't mean too much for the hurricane season, since it's only April and the SST anomalies could still change a lot, but it would be interesting if the -AMO look would flip to a more +AMO look.

I really don't trust the CDAS SSTs estimates, it shows at least a 2 deg C drop in SSTs in the BOC during the past 7 days but if you look at the buoy 42055 in that area it only shows 1 deg C drop during the past 7 days.