2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[MetroMike]

SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.

How likely is it that the SSTs being so far below normal was causing the sinking air, or at least contributing to the lack of instability?

But the SST’s are not below normal now if you look a couple posts above you.
Like he said that is not a negative factor now Hammy.

[MetroMike]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1030811998358052865



Who is Dylan?
SST’s are not a real negative factor now. He is thinking too conservatively imo.

[MJGarrison]

SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.

The quoted NOAA sea surface temperature anomaly chart shows the MDR at least back to average but the CDAS chart on tropical tidbits still shows slightly below average. Maybe someone can explain the differences between the charts.


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[Siker]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1030811998358052865



Who is Dylan? SST’s are not a real negative factor now. He is thinking too conservatively imo.

Dylan is the met you quoted haha. It’s his own tweet.

[NDG]

Any tropical waves that come off of Africa north of the Cape Verde Islands or track north of the 15th latitude east of the 40th longitude will have very little chance of developing over the next few weeks because of <26C SSTs and subsidence, best chances of them surviving and or developing is if they track south of the 15th latitude until they reach the 40th longitude. IMO.

[toad strangler]

Today is the 35th anniversary of home brew Alicia. African waves are mostly recurves in the best of years anyway so look out for that home brew this year

 https://twitter.com/USAwx/status/1030804110013067264

[blp]

Any tropical waves that come off of Africa north of the Cape Verde Islands or track north of the 15th latitude east of the 40th longitude will have very little chance of developing over the next few weeks because of <26C SSTs and subsidence, best chances of them surviving and or developing is if they track south of the 15th latitude until they reach the 40th longitude. IMO.

I am not sure how accurate the CDAS map is. The NESDIS map below looks more accurate to me and has things closer to normal. I think there was a debate going on with Levi and Phil Klotzbach about this last week with them questioning the CDAS being too cold.

[NDG]

Any tropical waves that come off of Africa north of the Cape Verde Islands or track north of the 15th latitude east of the 40th longitude will have very little chance of developing over the next few weeks because of <26C SSTs and subsidence, best chances of them surviving and or developing is if they track south of the 15th latitude until they reach the 40th longitude. IMO.

I am not sure how accurate the CDAS map is. The NESDIS map below looks more accurate to me and has things closer to normal. I think there was a debate going on with Levi and Phil Klotzbach about this last week with them questioning the CDAS being too cold.


https://image.ibb.co/edZACe/anomw_8_16_2018.gif

I'm not talking about anomalies, that's another argument, I'm actually referring to actual SSTs which I have spent the last few weeks comparing CDAS satellite SSTs measurements to actual SSTs by buoys & SHIPS in the area and they are pretty close, within 1/2 degree C most times.
There's no denial that the Atlantic MDR is cooler than last year, though it has warmed up some during the past few days.

[AnnularCane]

Today is the 35th anniversary of home brew Alicia. African waves are mostly recurves in the best of years anyway so look out for that home brew this year

 https://twitter.com/USAwx/status/1030804110013067264

Interesting. Alicia kind of looked like just a run of the mill Gulf blowup in that picture. The kind that might just fizzle after a day or two.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1030811998358052865



Who is Dylan?
SST’s are not a real negative factor now. He is thinking too conservatively imo.

I'm Dylan...

SSTA's are running slightly below normal in the MDR, with a -AMO signature clear as day. Eventually, climatological factors will eventually allow for a brief burst of activity, and EPS/GEFS are showing some activity after 8/27. But don't let that fool you, this season will end up well below normal from an ACE perspective.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To add, everything about this thus far has screamed a classic -AMO pattern: see Debby and Ernesto. Most of the ACE this year will probably come from that part of the Atlantic.

[toad strangler]

Today is the 35th anniversary of home brew Alicia. African waves are mostly recurves in the best of years anyway so look out for that home brew this year

 https://twitter.com/USAwx/status/1030804110013067264

Interesting. Alicia kind of looked like just a run of the mill Gulf blowup in that picture. The kind that might just fizzle after a day or two.

Just look at the little beast she was

[Tweet] https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 91872?s=21 [/Tweet]

[blp]

Any tropical waves that come off of Africa north of the Cape Verde Islands or track north of the 15th latitude east of the 40th longitude will have very little chance of developing over the next few weeks because of <26C SSTs and subsidence, best chances of them surviving and or developing is if they track south of the 15th latitude until they reach the 40th longitude. IMO.

I am not sure how accurate the CDAS map is. The NESDIS map below looks more accurate to me and has things closer to normal. I think there was a debate going on with Levi and Phil Klotzbach about this last week with them questioning the CDAS being too cold.


https://image.ibb.co/edZACe/anomw_8_16_2018.gif

I'm not talking about anomalies, that's another argument, I'm actually referring to actual SSTs which I have spent the last few weeks comparing CDAS satellite SSTs measurements to actual SSTs by buoys & SHIPS in the area and they are pretty close, within 1/2 degree C most times.
There's no denial that the Atlantic MDR is cooler than last year, though it has warmed up some during the past few days.

Your right the graphic I posted was the anomoly versus what you posted was the actual SST's. The point I am trying to make though is yes it is cooler than last year but last year was much warmer than normal so my point with my graphic is compared to climatology we are close to normal. So it should not be a major negative factor this year as some have suggested.

[abajan]

SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.

https://image.ibb.co/edZACe/anomw_8_16_2018.gif

What's causing the extreme North Atlantic to be as much as 5 °C above normal? That's quite a large deviation.

[Visioen]

SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.

The quoted NOAA sea surface temperature anomaly chart shows the MDR at least back to average but the CDAS chart on tropical tidbits still shows slightly below average. Maybe someone can explain the differences between the charts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wonder about that too..

[Siker]

Levi’s CDAS Anomaly plots use a 1981-2010 base period, which captures a range of both -AMO and +AMO years. The OSPO site uses a very narrow base period that is around 1989-1993, which was a solidly -AMO time period. So Levi’s plots should provide a better average to compare to, versus the OSPO plots where positive anomalies are easier to come by. However, CDAS is satellite derived, so its present day measurements may be more prone to error (I don’t know anything about satellite SST measurement techniques but people have claimed this is possible).

[AJC3]

Peeps,

I've gone through this thread and and the Global model runs thread and cleaned both of them up. There was a fair amount of cross posts over there that belonged here, and there were a number of posts in this thread about the wave over west Africa, which should, quite frankly, have its own thread, since there's an incipient area of disturbed weather.

So please feel free to do so - besides, threads have been started on much worse, especially this season!

So....if your post about the west African wave disappeared, now you know why....

carry on...

[SFLcane]

So much for the MDR warming...those noaa sst anomaly maps are garbage.

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1030989503991824385?s=21

[toad strangler]

So much for the MDR warming...those noaa sst anomaly maps are garbage.

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1030989503991824385?s=21

meh, These anomalies are compared to very favorable MDR condition year 2017. Don’t write off a GOM, Bahamas, or Caribbean brew.

[NotSparta]

So much for the MDR warming...those noaa sst anomaly maps are garbage.

[url]https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1030989503991824385?s=21[url]

It has warmed, remember that is compared to near record high SSTAs. Still near-slightly below avg