2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1041 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:36 am

Well if not even another depression develops through the rest of 2018 and the season IS over in mid September, it'd be the earliest end since 1855. I put much less stock in climatology than some do, but it would be almost unprecedented and I can't buy into that.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1042 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:39 am

The season isn't done. The Cape Verde season pretty much is. But THE basin season? No.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1043 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:43 am

Who told SAL it was party time again?

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1044 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:44 am

toad strangler wrote:The season isn't done. The Cape Verde season pretty much is. But THE basin season? No.


We just need one good cool front to slowly begin to close the Texas door. This is just about the time Florida needs to start really paying attention.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1045 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:45 am

Yeah no doubt the CV season is toast now but it's almost time for it to be ending now soon anyway, heh. Almost time for home grown stuff and probably subtropical storm numba six
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1046 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:36 pm

k
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1047 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:22 pm

It's important to remember that even if the Cape Verde season is over (it may or may not be over now) the relevance of African easterly waves is not over. Late-season tropical cyclones that form over the Western Caribbean sometimes develop from tropical waves that move into the Western Caribbean, or form due to a combination of a tropical wave and other factors. Examples include Opal, Lili (1996), Mitch, Rina (2011), and Sandy.

So if the MJO is favored to produce enhanced upward motion over Africa in late September into October, that would likely enhance the tropical wave train, which would have implications for "homebrew" development.

It's also worth noting that Western Caribbean and GOM development are highly sensitive to the low-level wind anomalies west of Central America, which vary with MJO phase [see Maloney and Hartmann 2000; https://atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Ma ... cience.pdf]. The ECMWF weeklies suggest the MJO to remain in Phases 8 and 1 through at least October 15 (obviously this could change). These phases are associated with anomalous low-level westerlies east of Central America, which would favor Western Caribbean and/or GOM development.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1048 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:48 pm

Area to keep an eye on with be the west Carib as it usually is as we get into early oct.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1041815772580982786?s=21
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1051 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:52 pm

We’ve had some real nasty hurricanes have cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean in late September through November from the monsoon trough and here are examples

2012 Sandy
2008 Omar
2008 Paloma
2005 Wilma
2005 Beta
2005 Stan
2001 Michelle
1999 Irene
1998 Mitch
1995 Opal
And a host of others
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1052 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:41 am

Look at this SAL explosion! No one told him his time should have been drawing to a close.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1053 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:28 am

:uarrow: That will put a damper on any potential MDR development for sure. W. Caribbean the area to be watched based on recent model rumblings.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1054 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:37 am

SconnieCane wrote::uarrow: That will put a damper on any potential MDR development for sure. W. Caribbean the area to be watched based on recent model rumblings.


There is a lane in the MDR at the moment. A very low latitude lane. Between 5 and 10 degrees.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1055 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:22 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SconnieCane wrote::uarrow: That will put a damper on any potential MDR development for sure. W. Caribbean the area to be watched based on recent model rumblings.


There is a lane in the MDR at the moment. A very low latitude lane. Between 5 and 10 degrees.

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc107/softparade1313/GFS_1.png


Yep, that low latitude lane could easily support the development of a small system with a low westward track. Wouldn't be the first time a tropical cyclone developed this year within an ideal "goldilocks zone" in close proximity to a good deal of SAL around it.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1056 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:56 pm

Global Tropics Hazards is hilighting the Western Caribbean and East Pacific off the coast of Mexico for week two from September 26th-October 2nd.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1057 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:10 am

[Tweet]https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1042401458619080704[/Tweet]

For the life of me I can't figure out why the twitter links are not working when pasting from mobile but have no issue on a PC.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1058 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:44 pm

toad strangler wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1042401458619080704

For the life of me I can't figure out why the twitter links are not working when pasting from mobile but have no issue on a PC.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1042401458619080704


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1059 Postby blp » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:48 am

Let's see if this turns out to be true. Still not buying it yet.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1042871402762665990


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1060 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:48 am

blp wrote:Let's see if this turns out to be true. Still not buying it yet.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1042871402762665990


Why no buy?
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