2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[Hammy]

Another monster wave about to make the splash. Sooner or later you got to assume one of these waves will end up developing:

[img]https://s8.postimg.cc/zbde3dgv9/goes16_ir_eatl_201808252336.jpg

They still seem like they're coming off too far north. It shows up in the models too, it looks like when the models show development, as they back off watch the point of exit creep further and further north at the same time, but the question I have is why they're coming off this high in the first place.

[Kazmit]

Wow, ssts have really improved over the entire Atlantic- most of it is above average. If atmospheric conditions are right, we could see a monster form, similar to Joaquin in 2015. It only takes one...

[SoupBone]

Another monster wave about to make the splash. Sooner or later you got to assume one of these waves will end up developing:

[img]https://s8.postimg.cc/zbde3dgv9/goes16_ir_eatl_201808252336.jpg

They still seem like they're coming off too far north. It shows up in the models too, it looks like when the models show development, as they back off watch the point of exit creep further and further north at the same time, but the question I have is why they're coming off this high in the first place.

I'm not so sure this one is too high. The one before it was much higher and even it's still surviving SAL right now.

[NDG]

Things are still pointing to an active September, especially the second half of the month which is normal during -AMO signature years according to a study which makes sense, 2002 is a good example.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033503827276644352

[CyclonicFury]

SAL has lessened, instability has increased significantly over the MDR, SSTs are warm enough to support TC genesis throughout the entire MDR (and are slightly above normal overall), and models are showing a much more favorable base state for September than August. Looking likely that the lid should be coming off soon. The big question is if shear will be low enough to see any strong hurricanes or not.

[gatorcane]

Definitely things are changing out over the eastern MDR as seen by the big picture sat image. There is less SAL and more rising motion with lowering of background pressures. Given model trends expect NHC to lemon an area out there in the next day or two. Looks like the anticipated uptick in activity end of this month commences this week:

[blp]

MJO forecast to make a strong push into the Atlantic mid Sept. This will just add fuel to the fire and bring lots of upward motion to replace the sinking air. All indications are for a very active Sept. The two question I have now will the current steering of a strong high stay in place and bring these long tracking waves toward land and will we see higher than normal shear develop on the Western side of the Atlantic due to the possible late blooming El Niño. We could have an active MDR and have unfavorable conditions further west.

GEFS


Euro

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if this is supposed to be here, but it relates to next weeks predicted uptick in activity.

Just incase the Euro decides to poof any of these impressive waves coming off Africa.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1034088088014860289

[blp]

Interesting tweets in this thread.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1034205102943301632

[TheStormExpert]

All is eerily quiet now, but the Atlantic is SLOWLY waking up from its August slumber.

[blp]

This continues to be my biggest concern for the season. It only takes one wave with this upper pattern setup to be a problem.

The "ridge over troubled waters" synoptic pattern, a setup often associated with enhanced Atlantic tropical activity in-season, is in full effect at range. [ECMWF-EPS/hour 240]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1034390294089805825

[ScottNAtlanta]

This continues to be my biggest concern for the season. It only takes one wave with this upper pattern setup to be a problem.

The "ridge over troubled waters" synoptic pattern, a setup often associated with enhanced Atlantic tropical activity in-season, is in full effect at range. [ECMWF-EPS/hour 240]

Looks like JB's lingo is becoming the norm. He coined "the ridge over troubled waters" phrase many years ago (you dont wanna hear him sing it though)

[NDG]

Is going to be a very busy 4-6 weeks coming up.

@BenNollWeather
The pressure anomaly pattern over the Atlantic for the next 4 weeks is a bit eye opening [JMA weeklies]

Weeks 1-2: blossoming MDR risk, Gulf of Mexico risk.
Weeks 3-4: MDR + Gulf risk continues, but watch East Coast/Northeast, then Europe!

East Pacific raging throughout.
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1035102219920531457






@BenNollWeather
If you live along the Gulf Coast, it would appear that some tropically derived, heavy rainfall is likely during the next 4 weeks.

Notice how the risk slides up the eastern seaboard during weeks 3-4 and Bermuda gets in the mix too. [rainfall anomaly/JMA weeklies]
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1035106817469165568

[cycloneye]

The headline from the experts were for the cool MDR to cause a below to average season.Look now.

[toad strangler]

The headline from the experts were for the cool MDR to cause a below to average season.Look now.

That's why the games are played on the field!

[SFLcane]

Yikes! that sure is an eye opener from Ben noll going into september. All i can say is may the steering gods be in our favor.

[Patrick99]

I look at the basin-wide satellite loop and it just looks like the tropics are coming alive. I think we have lift-off.

[blp]

Eric Webb shared this on another forum. I agree this has been my biggest concern. Looks like the wave train will be in full operation in Sept. I can't remember a Sept pattern like this.

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Eric Webb
17 minutes ago
Yikes, I really hope we break this steering pattern before the 3rd week of September. Hide — uploads.disquscdn.com
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ThisIsNotSpa☈ta Eric Webb
14 minutes ago
Looks like we'll get lucky w/ what's likely to be Florence in the near future, but it's an unsettling pattern to have when there's a parade of strong AEWs that models are keen on developing

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Eric Webb ThisIsNotSpa☈ta
8 minutes ago
Yeah it'll be pretty unsettling if this pattern moves forward in time on NWP and these AEWs over the MDR behind our wave that'll most likely become Florence develop... Lots of time for things to change thankfully

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1035130334424248321

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1035150709405233152