2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#281 Postby tolakram » Tue May 22, 2018 9:33 pm

I don't see anything wrong with what Shell Mound said.

Discuss, present data, present counter arguments, but stop the attacks and flippant remarks if you don't like what someone else said.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#282 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 23, 2018 4:30 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#283 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 23, 2018 6:45 pm

Most activity is likely to be closer to the United states with that MDR.

Of course 2013 still managed to get 13-14 named storms so maybe my numbers aint wrong but if I am going to bust it may bust too high.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#284 Postby Shell Mound » Thu May 24, 2018 9:13 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#285 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2018 10:39 am

@webberweather
The tropical Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool despite favorable subseasonal forcing w/ an MJO pulse over the Indian Ocean. If an El Nino doesn't form this year, the Atlantic won't be a reason for its demise like it was in 2012 & last year. #ElNino #climate


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1001123199990599680


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#286 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 28, 2018 10:59 am

cycloneye wrote:@webberweather
The tropical Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool despite favorable subseasonal forcing w/ an MJO pulse over the Indian Ocean. If an El Nino doesn't form this year, the Atlantic won't be a reason for its demise like it was in 2012 & last year. #ElNino #climate


[tweet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1001123199990599680[tweet]


I think the resilient +NAO is controlling a lot of that currently
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#287 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 28, 2018 11:46 am

The NAO obs have verified higher than forecast. The feedback loop is a lot more prevalent than trusting -NAO net gains long term.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#288 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 29, 2018 10:38 am

See if you can spot any difference between May 26, 2017 and May 26, 2018 SSTs in the Atlantic & Pacific:

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#289 Postby NDG » Tue May 29, 2018 12:39 pm

Is interesting to me that on this image the lowest SSTs anomalies west of the 30th longitude are aproximate between the 18th latitude & 26th latitude.
We know that from near Cuban Bahamas & Florida SSTs are cooler than average because of the wet pattern in this area during the past several weeks.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#290 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 29, 2018 12:49 pm

Many have alluded to the positive NAO as being mostly responsible for the cooler than average MDR temps. The NAO is forecast to go negative in the first week of June. Perhaps this could warm up the MDR somewhat?

Image


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#291 Postby weathaguyry » Tue May 29, 2018 12:59 pm

Based on previous data,it appears that NAO events tend to only last a few months,so it would make sense for it to flip negative soon

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#292 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 29, 2018 1:10 pm

:uarrow: Dang! All of the year 2010 the NAO was greatly negative. That should explain the out to sea track so on most of that years storms. Also that could be contributor to why the MDR was super warm. Then there was also the record cold winter months of January, February, and December of 2010 for Florida.

My problem about this season is it could be a little too late for even a sudden flip to a negative NAO pattern to fix the damage done. Yes we could see some rebound in the Tropical Atlantic SST’s but nothing like last season is expected and are even close to materializing with the way things look now.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue May 29, 2018 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#293 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 29, 2018 1:12 pm

The NAO seems to go negative a lot during the summer months.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#294 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 29, 2018 1:18 pm

In 2004 it was mostly positive 75% of the year and yet the Tropical Atlantic was much warmer than average.

Could this mean that there is something else contributing to the hugely negative SST’s in that subregion?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#295 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 29, 2018 1:31 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:In 2004 it was mostly positive 75% of the year and yet the Tropical Atlantic was much warmer than average.

Could this mean that there is something else contributing to the hugely negative SST’s in that subregion?


2004 was much less positive, and frequently dipped to neutral or negative. This is a 3 month running mean, so it's very likely there were decent -NAOs then, while the last one of note in 2018 was in March (not including the brief dip to just below neutral in April)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#296 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 29, 2018 3:16 pm

@RyanMaue
Need to investigate upwelling event that has led to dramatic cool water at surface off coast of West Africa ... part of entire Eastern Atlantic over 1°C below last 30-year climatology.
Only 20°C actual SST at 10°N latitude is not very tropical.


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001555105387302912


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#297 Postby NDG » Tue May 29, 2018 4:27 pm

Big difference indeed.

@RyanMaue

If Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is first order predictor of Hurricane Season, then can't find much more of a stark comparison that 2005 vs. 2018. Here are actual SST with water 13 years ago already at 28°C+ in Main Dev Region. (1/2)


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557856167059457


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#298 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 29, 2018 5:24 pm

:uarrow: This year won’t be a 2005. At least we won’t have to worry about that. I heard you usually see a crazy active season like that proceeding a high impact season similar to last year or 2004.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#299 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue May 29, 2018 9:17 pm

NDG wrote:Is interesting to me that on this image the lowest SSTs anomalies west of the 30th longitude are aproximate between the 18th latitude & 26th latitude.
We know that from near Cuban Bahamas & Florida SSTs are cooler than average because of the wet pattern in this area during the past several weeks.

Image


If the pattern of warm anomalies in the north, and normal to below normal MDR SST's holds for prime season, doesn't this type of setup typically create shear and subsidence over the MDR caused by the warm pool to the north? If memory serves, even though MDR SSTs will be plenty warm enough later on, MDR activity can be suppressed.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#300 Postby NDG » Wed May 30, 2018 7:28 am

Let's see if the ECMWF is correct but with so much cooler than average SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic it makes sense that July will be very quiet, the dry Sahara will move over the Atlantic, great time to get on a cruise I guess.

@BenNollWeather

As we head into late June and July, there is a relatively strong sub-seasonal signal for upper level convergence across the Atlantic Basin (1) while upper divergence becomes favored over the Pacific (2).

This would favor quiet conditions across the tropical Atlantic during July.


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1001782441470607362


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