2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#821 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:31 am

Good thing the MDR has been quiet so far, the Bermuda mid level ridge has been strong and forecasted to stay strong as we head towards the heart of the hurricane season.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#822 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:28 am

Well, SST's over much of the Atlantic certainly are warm enough for action, assuming atmospheric conditions allow it: Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#823 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:49 pm

LarryWx wrote:
tolakram wrote:Last year was a good example of seemingly bad conditions until suddenly it wasn't. Remember all the upper level lows last year?


Keep in mind that last year started off as heading toward El Niño before it surprisingly made an unexpected about face toward a much more favorable for tropical La Niña. I don’t see anywhere near a repeat because the subsurface equatorial Pacific is so much warmer. Also, the Eurosip forecast for ASO of 2018 has much higher SLPs vs what it showed in 2017. Furthermore, the Caribbean shear at this time last year was not as high even though it wasn’t low.


I don't think it will be nearly as favorable as last year but I do think we will again be surprised by the peak of the season with 5 days or less notice that anything is going to happen. El Nino has so far failed to materialize again, so far, but every year is different. This time last year instability in the tropical Atlantic was a lot closer to normal, this year is juuust a bit different. :lol:

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#824 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:01 pm

Update from Ben Noll on the Euro's velocity forecast he's been posting during the past 2 weeks.


@BenNollWeather
13 August] A major change in the tropical base state looks likely during September.
The pattern looks to become more favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclones, by mid-month, after the suppressed wave fades during the first ten days.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1029147032164786176




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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#825 Postby wxGuy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:07 pm

Might I add in here, look what's riding along, waiting to fuel anything that comes her way :P
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good ole classic loop eddy
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#826 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:29 pm

Weekly check on the CFS shows an equally unlikely flip to a 2013 scenario from the high level of activity in the previous map, though it's trended quieter this week. Might see a flip back in the other direction as more favorable conditions approach and as the waters warm, but here's an estimation of the latest run, which would put the season at 15/3/0.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#827 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:33 am

Hammy wrote:Weekly check on the CFS shows an equally unlikely flip to a 2013 scenario from the high level of activity in the previous map, though it's trended quieter this week. Might see a flip back in the other direction as more favorable conditions approach and as the waters warm, but here's an estimation of the latest run, which would put the season at 15/3/0.

Image


Though conditions look similar to 2013 especially the instability east of 60w there is less shear so if something develops shear won’t drive dry air into systems compared with high shear of 2013
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#828 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:03 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Well, SST's over much of the Atlantic certainly are warm enough for action, assuming atmospheric conditions allow it: Image


The box from Jamaica to Grand Bahama to west Florida to the Yucatan looks particularly juicy....some spots look like they are edging close to being 90-degree water. A week of mostly high sun around here from the SAL sure isn't going to cool that off any.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#829 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:42 pm

Interesting, in another words don't use Tropical Tidbit's CFSR SSTs forecast for now.

Levi Cowan


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Replying to @CyclonicFury @NDGMETCHEF @philklotzbach
I've mentioned before that something is off with the climatology from CFSR that I'm using for these plots. I've now disabled these until I can figure out why the climatology is too cold.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#830 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:47 pm

NDG wrote:Interesting, in another words don't use Tropical Tidbit's CFSR SSTs forecast for now.

Levi Cowan


@TropicalTidbits
Replying to @CyclonicFury @NDGMETCHEF @philklotzbach
I've mentioned before that something is off with the climatology from CFSR that I'm using for these plots. I've now disabled these until I can figure out why the climatology is too cold.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928[tweet]


Eric Webb brought it up about 2 weeks ago. I think it's for the CFS cross section.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#831 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:46 pm

i hear this year we seen more sal and past few year going into aug we going see sal here later this week here in fl untill that totaly leave we wont see strong wave coming out afica i hearing shear been dropping last few weeks that could help wave when sal drop more
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#832 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:51 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i hear this year we seen more sal and past few year going into aug we going see sal here later this week here in fl untill that totaly leave we wont see strong wave coming out afica i hearing shear been dropping last few weeks that could help wave when sal drop more

Usually SAL subsides in mid-late August and it is already beginning to do so.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#833 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:04 pm

I'm having a hard time finding a good site to see the SAL. This was my favorite site but it's down. Any other good sites out there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=
:roll:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#834 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:21 am

Since there's still not much out there or showing up in the models in the short term, another CFS run (excluding systems I'm not sure are tropical or not) as of 00z/Aug 14.

Image

A bit more realistic than the last few runs, at least in the shorter term. Model would indicate 16/3/0 to 16/8/3, assuming 98L develops. One notable trend on this model regardless of activity is that the Gulf and eastern half of the Atlantic seem like the most active regions, with little along the US East Coast or Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#835 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:30 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I'm having a hard time finding a good site to see the SAL. This was my favorite site but it's down. Any other good sites out there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=
:roll:


I'm having the same issues. Anyone have an alternate to this or a reason why it's been down for a few days?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#836 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:58 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#837 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:48 am

:uarrow: Would that explain the wild variations with the CFS three month model?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#838 Postby StruThiO » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:19 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#839 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:24 pm

Now this is looking rather favorable basin-wide. #itIsAugust. Shouldn’t be too long before we get some systems spinning up in the MDR once some of the SAL subsides:

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#840 Postby Ian2401 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:31 pm

Image
Tropical Atlantic likely to be entering a period of favorable MJO conditions in the next week or so that may extend into the climatological peak of the season.
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