Fwiw from Larry Cosgrove yesterday, Flo may not end up being the only high impact CONUS TC due to the possibility of something new and strong in a dangerous position in about 2 weeks, which is hinted at by the last several GEFS runs (6Z posted by gatorcane in models thread). Please don’t shoot the messengers:
“One of the complications is that while many of the forecast models had earlier been predicting a robust El Nino, what has actually happened in a positive neutral ENSO with a tendency to remain over and west of the International Dateline. This alignment, called a Modoki event, will permit tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Sargasso Seas (as shearing wind profiles mostly stay along and off of the Pacific shoreline. Since the ensemble members of the various equations show a heat ridge presence over the southern and eastern sections of the U.S. in the 11 - 15 day, any transition to colder air might be enhanced by a combination of a warm-core feature and a frontal structure, the likes of which are shown in the analog outlooks which foresee a cooler turn in the eastern third of the country on the last day of September.”
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.