2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1021 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:Woah! :eek: Could get quite busy near home.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1040378377398411264?s=21


Would be a bad combo if shear came down as well.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1022 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:19 pm

October has been busy in recent years...
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Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1023 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:Woah! :eek: Could get quite busy near home.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1040378377398411264?s=21


US threats through October is not out of the question, the NAO does not want to go negative :double:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1024 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:23 pm

I'm convinced that despite many inconsistencies and much fewer storm count, October is hell month in NHem; ATL, Epac, Wpac ALL have had their strongest AND deadliest storms in October. It being hyperactive is not ideal
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1025 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:05 am

Shear in the basin is at its lowest in October is it not?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1026 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:51 am

Even the CFSv2 is getting into the action. See below Ben Noll's tweet

 https://twitter.com/VWeatherWatcher/status/1040421963653636097




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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1027 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:46 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Shear in the basin is at its lowest in October is it not?


But over the wide open Atlantic, shear usually starts picking up across the northern GOM and off of the US east coast next month.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1028 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:46 am

Kingarabian wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Woah! :eek: Could get quite busy near home.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1040378377398411264?s=21


Would be a bad combo if shear came down as well.


Wonder how the long wave pattern will evolve during the upcoming few weeks? That'll largely dictate whether Central America, Yucatan, and Texas get the brunt of more to come, or rather more focused toward the Greater Antilles, Florida, Bahamas, N. Gulf Coast, and the Carolina's (again).
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1029 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:47 pm

I think something to take out of the 2018 season is that SST anomalies might be an overrated indicator for the activity of the season, and that the west African monsoon likely also plays a significant role in activity. When the WAM is strong, there seems to be more development in the MDR, especially the eastern half. We saw four systems become hurricanes in the "cold" MDR this year, including a near major hurricane.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1030 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:13 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1031 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:20 am

Fwiw from Larry Cosgrove yesterday, Flo may not end up being the only high impact CONUS TC due to the possibility of something new and strong in a dangerous position in about 2 weeks, which is hinted at by the last several GEFS runs (6Z posted by gatorcane in models thread). Please don’t shoot the messengers:

“One of the complications is that while many of the forecast models had earlier been predicting a robust El Nino, what has actually happened in a positive neutral ENSO with a tendency to remain over and west of the International Dateline. This alignment, called a Modoki event, will permit tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Sargasso Seas (as shearing wind profiles mostly stay along and off of the Pacific shoreline. Since the ensemble members of the various equations show a heat ridge presence over the southern and eastern sections of the U.S. in the 11 - 15 day, any transition to colder air might be enhanced by a combination of a warm-core feature and a frontal structure, the likes of which are shown in the analog outlooks which foresee a cooler turn in the eastern third of the country on the last day of September.”
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1032 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:32 pm

Looks like another year where forecasts could bust due to assuming an El Niño will form. Just like last year, I was skeptical of an El Niño forming especially in regions 1 and 2 given the much colder anomalies off of South America we saw. Modoki was never out of the question. Now the big question is will we get that late season / October Western Caribbean monster?!? Thought we would get one last year but that didn’t quite pan out.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1033 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:44 pm

Looking strictly at FL H hits from 9/21-10/31 W Caribbean geneses since 1851, here are the longest periods without a H hit:

1. 18 years (1969-1987)
2. 14 years (1851-1864)
3. 13 years (1951-1963)
4. 12 years (2006-2017)
5. 10 years (1883-1892)

On average, FL has gotten a H hit every 5.5 years just from W Caribbean TCs forming 9/21-10/31! That's a heck of lot from such a small area of genesis and over just a 41 day period of formation (30 hits in 167 years).
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1034 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:49 am

Euro weeklies is still persistent on a stormy Atlantic by the end of the month into October.

@BenNollWeather
The MJO is forecast to emerge over the Western Hemisphere and then Africa to end September and start October.

Can't sleep on additional Atlantic tropical action in a few weeks time!


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1041635211279122432


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1035 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:35 am

A quiet end to the busiest month during the Atlantic hurricane season. The switch may be flipped on again come October.

 https://twitter.com/tropicswatch/status/1041674171724570625


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1036 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:36 am

Big SAL outbreak is shutting down the MDR. Instability remains well below normal across the Tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1037 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:41 am

Sure would not mind if the season was over but probably not.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1038 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:46 am

:uarrow: Yes wxman57, the brief short-lived Cape Verde season is likely officially over now. Even the quietest of seasons have a quick burst of activity which lasts about 1-2 weeks like we just saw. Still can’t rule out mischief in the Western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, or Gulf of Mexico come two weeks and beyond as this is a favored region for development come October and November.

It ain’t over till it’s over! :lol:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1039 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:03 am

This very late dust outbreak which is forecasted to reach FL late this weekend/early next week tells me that the tropical waves will continue to roll out of the African coast and will be enhanced once the MJO moves back to our part of the world.
The +NAO is not going any where any time soon.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#1040 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:26 am

Holy... look at that dust! i'd say the capeverde season is probably done. Maybe the season is done let's hope.

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