2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#381 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:48 pm

There has been significant warming at a faster than normal pace in the tropical Atlantic during the past 7 days

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#382 Postby Dougiefresh » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:51 pm

chaser1 wrote::uarrow: WOW :crazyeyes: Those of you kiddies there in the Islands, don't forget to leave your beach pails and shovels outside when you go to bed at night. In the morning, you might be rewarded with your pail suddenly half full with sand!


Got that right, everyone's car in Barbados right now looks like we all went off roading.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#383 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:01 pm

GFS and EURO hinting at weaker than normal trades due to subtropical ridge anomalously far north, displacing enhanced easterlies to the north:

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#384 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:07 pm

:uarrow:
Will be interesting to see how much the MDR warms compared to normal over the next few weeks. Maybe it could get to average by peak season if slow trades continue over the coming months.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#385 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:12 pm

CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow:
Will be interesting to see how much the MDR warms compared to normal over the next few weeks. Maybe it could get to average by peak season if slow trades continue over the coming months.


For a long time, it has been quite difficult to get a -NAO going. the only one of significance this year was caused by the SSW. imo, the only way this is possible is if the high does end up being displaced north like this frequently.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#386 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:36 pm

@ToddKimberlain
The TUTT or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough has developed unusually early this year and has been strong, both typical characteristics of an inactive #HurricaneSeason. Its persistence would mean greatly reduced activity at low latitudes #tropics


 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1006957374601605120


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#387 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:45 pm

Current Saharan dust coming across the Caribbean will be reaching the gulf coast by the weekend into early next week :double:

Image
Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#388 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:51 pm

NDG wrote:Current Saharan dust coming across the Caribbean will be reaching the gulf coast by the weekend into early next week :double:

https://i.imgur.com/GBzBUFc.png
https://i.imgur.com/PmvfA5b.png


Yeah pretty impressive but not sure what kind of indicator this may be as it is always dusty out there from around now until middle August :)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#389 Postby Siker » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:14 am

Speaking of Africa, Northern Africa has been anomalously wet so far this year. Let's see how it evolves as the season goes on.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#390 Postby MetroMike » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:17 am

Siker wrote:Speaking of Africa, Northern Africa has been anomalously wet so far this year. Let's see how it evolves as the season goes on.

Image

Yes this is interesting. Just tonight I checked the SAL loop and it is not as intense as I normally remember it being for this month last year.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#391 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:02 pm

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This SST anomaly configuration certainly doesn't have the signature of an active MDR. It continues to be 180 degree opposite of last year. All of the above normal SSTs are in the northern subtropical Atlantic. Of course we can't count out waves waiting to develop once they recurve into the subtropical Atlantic or make it further west in the Caribbean or Gulf. Of course we probably will still get a few MDR systems between the Lesser Antilles and Africa during the peak period of late Aug through September as the waters will be warm enough but I just can't see anything like last year in the MDR (between the Lesser Antilles and Africa) as far as systems being that strong out there:

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#392 Postby Weather150 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This SST anomaly configuration certainly doesn't have the signature of an active MDR. It continues to be 180 degree opposite of last year. All of the above normal SSTs are in the northern subtropical Atlantic. Of course we can't count out waves waiting to develop once they recurve into the subtropical Atlantic or make it further west in the Caribbean or Gulf. Of course we probably will still get a few MDR systems between the Lesser Antilles and Africa during the peak period of late Aug through September as the waters will be warm enough but I just can't see anything like last year in the MDR (between the Lesser Antilles and Africa) as far as systems being that strong out there:

Image

We could get some pretty strong hurricanes in the subtropics. I think we have a much higher chance of getting a major there than in the MDR this year, along with the Gulf.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#393 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:22 am

So with the likelihood of an El Niño developing at least midway through the season increasing are we still thinking 1985 is a good analog?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#394 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:37 am

the MDR anomalies have not improved, it continues the downward spiral and re-intensifying the cold horseshoe. The window to reverse this by fall is closing, there is already a feedback going on.

Image

Agreed with posts above about Subtropics possibly being more favorable.

Remember, this is not about the actual SSTs but the spatial pattern created. Strong Azores high fed by the warmer waters in the north increases trades to the south, inducing shear. In the same motion creates more cooling.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#395 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:08 am

I’m not ready to write off this season just yet. I personally believe just like in 1985 that the Gulf Coast and mid-Atlantic to New England are at greatest risk from a Tropical Cycloneye strike. Wouldn’t rule out a hurricane hit or two in the U.S. this year. Not betting on a major hit, likely to be a less intense version of 1985 if anything.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#396 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:36 am

Ntxw wrote:the MDR anomalies have not improved, it continues the downward spiral and re-intensifying the cold horseshoe. The window to reverse this by fall is closing, there is already a feedback going on.

Image

Agreed with posts above about Subtropics possibly being more favorable.

Remember, this is not about the actual SSTs but the spatial pattern created. Strong Azores high fed by the warmer waters in the north increases trades to the south, inducing shear. In the same motion creates more cooling.


One would think that this same pumped up W. Atlantic ridge might be the very reason that the Southeast CONUS might be at greater risk of whatever tropical cyclones might develop within or just north of the Caribbean. That 500 mb pattern might just be the westward railroad to landfalls. The hopeful counterbalance is that perhaps there will be few long trackers, that potential upper level conditions may pose persistent shear impact, or that the strong E. Trades themselves might mitigate particularly strong storms from developing as a result of hampered vertical continuity. This could well be a slow season but a more relevant point that should be considered is whether the pattern itself might be more conducive to a (or multiple) Florida to Carolina's eastward approaching storm or hurricane.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#397 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:52 am

The MDR should have a pause in the downward spiral, as a trade slowdown takes place. It's unclear how long this will last, however.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#399 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:35 pm



My observations of slowly evolving El Nino events were that there seemed to be a delayed impact (30-60 days perhaps?) to Atlantic conditions. Are you suggesting that outside of an actual El Nino event that even warm-neutral conditions would be a tell tale prelude to near term motion? Of course its possible that the 500 mb height falls that you are suggesting might not verify until Sept./Oct. That doesn't seem at all unreasonable but I'd be a bit surprised if you were suggesting a noticeable breakdown in the W. Atlantic heights as early as this July and August :think:
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