2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#761 Postby psyclone » Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:15 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern. :?:

Keep in mind that while August is a very active month overall it is very backloaded. We're climbing the climo ramp as of August 1 but that climb starts from a low baseline so while a quiet first half of august isn't unusual a quiet second half is pretty much unheard of. As Dr Gray used to say...the bell rings on 8-20. Enjoy the down time while it lasts...because even in "quiet" years we're inching into the hot zone.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#762 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:03 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
I have been right most years lol at least when it comes to a slow Atlantic. Last year was an exception. 8-)


2010 - 2012 were all above average, 2013-2015 were all below average, 16 above, 17 hyper.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#763 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:24 pm

Interesting, also notice that 2002 was the second coldest July MDR but yet two major hurricanes formed in the western Caribbean/GOM that year with Nino 3.4 even warmer than this year. The CSU team added 2002 as an analog year on their new released forecast yesterday, glad they also noticed it that it is fairly similar to this year.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1025424965108035584


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#764 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:17 pm

z
NDG wrote:Interesting, also notice that 2002 was the second coldest July MDR but yet two major hurricanes formed in the western Caribbean/GOM that year with Nino 3.4 even warmer than this year. The CSU team added 2002 as an analog year on their new released forecast yesterday, glad they also noticed it that it is fairly similar to this year.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5108035584


Maybe less active Cape Verde but eventually conditions should improve further west in the Western MDR (Caribbean) and Western Atlantic as we get into late August and September especially since there does not look to be an impending El Niño. These waves which have been waiting until the EPAC to develop could (should) start developing on the Atlantic side. Could coincide shortly after when this current burst of EPAC activity ends.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#765 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:50 pm

gatorcane wrote:
z
NDG wrote:Interesting, also notice that 2002 was the second coldest July MDR but yet two major hurricanes formed in the western Caribbean/GOM that year with Nino 3.4 even warmer than this year. The CSU team added 2002 as an analog year on their new released forecast yesterday, glad they also noticed it that it is fairly similar to this year.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5108035584


Maybe less active Cape Verde but eventually conditions should improve further west in the Western MDR (Caribbean) and Western Atlantic as we get into late August and September especially since there does not look to be an impending El Niño. These waves which have been waiting until the EPAC to develop could (should) start developing on the Atlantic side. Could coincide shortly after when this current burst of EPAC activity ends.


I agree, just like in 2002 which had an active EPAC season, eventually the western Caribbean became active towards the peak of the season.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#766 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:36 am

CFS showing significantly less activity (only 3-4 storms through the middle of September) and is pushing back the beginning of activity to around the 21st, which interestingly is around the point the Euro has that large amplitude wave coming off.

On a side note, why are the waves coming off so far north? I'm seeing (as per model data at least) some coming off at 25N and a few having even exited from Morocco. That is clearly contributing to the lack of activity at the moment as Beryl came off pretty far south.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#767 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:02 pm

Hammy wrote:CFS showing significantly less activity (only 3-4 storms through the middle of September) and is pushing back the beginning of activity to around the 21st, which interestingly is around the point the Euro has that large amplitude wave coming off.

On a side note, why are the waves coming off so far north? I'm seeing (as per model data at least) some coming off at 25N and a few having even exited from Morocco. That is clearly contributing to the lack of activity at the moment as Beryl came off pretty far south.


The models have a north bias with waves coming off Africa and sometimes a very significant north bias, I can almost guarantee you that no wave will come off north of 20n which needs to be fixed in the models in the future, and that’s why also the models tend to be too far east with AEWs with recurves as they tend to recurve significantly farther west

It could also be signifying an uptick in activity after the 15th as that’s when things start to get cooking
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#768 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:40 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Hammy wrote:CFS showing significantly less activity (only 3-4 storms through the middle of September) and is pushing back the beginning of activity to around the 21st, which interestingly is around the point the Euro has that large amplitude wave coming off.

On a side note, why are the waves coming off so far north? I'm seeing (as per model data at least) some coming off at 25N and a few having even exited from Morocco. That is clearly contributing to the lack of activity at the moment as Beryl came off pretty far south.


The models have a north bias with waves coming off Africa and sometimes a very significant north bias, I can almost guarantee you that no wave will come off north of 20n which needs to be fixed in the models in the future, and that’s why also the models tend to be too far east with AEWs with recurves as they tend to recurve significantly farther west

It could also be signifying an uptick in activity after the 15th as that’s when things start to get cooking


Could this be contributing to the models having such difficulty with genesis in the Atlantic?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#769 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:13 pm

@BenNollWeather

[6 August] Atlantic tropical interests keep watch!

The basin is finally forecast to have more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone genesis as we head into mid-September, a little over 1 month away.


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1026606724864651264


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#770 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:02 am

Maybe a 2002 type burst in September in that case? At this rate Hector may end up having more ACE than the Atlantic basin if it really is that slow till mid September!

Still experience has shown me that quite often very unfavourable looking set-ups in the Atlantic can flip like a switch in a few days, usually around the 20th of August.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#771 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:56 am

@BenNollWeather
SST anomalies in the Atlantic Main Development Region have now 'recovered' to -0.19ºC, which is very nearly the warmest anomaly of summer so far.

The Atlantic won't stay quiet forever!


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1026783585401880577


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#772 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:27 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern. :?:


STS Debby was just named, so yes we will have atleast one storm in the month of August.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#773 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:42 am

:uarrow: The 3rd Subtropical Storm of the season. :roll:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#774 Postby KAlexPR » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:13 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#775 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:15 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern. :?:


STS Debby was just named, so yes we will have atleast one storm in the month of August.


A real storm was the real question. Sub tropical in August might as well be nothing :lol:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#776 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:48 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:A legit question to ask. Will we even get a storm in August? Right now the Atlantic looks more hostile than I can remember. Seems models haven't really hinted at a change in the pattern. :?:


STS Debby was just named, so yes we will have atleast one storm in the month of August.


A real storm was the real question. Sub tropical in August might as well be nothing :lol:


Sub Tropical or not it is still a classified storm, and the 4th storm of the season by August 7th .. sure the season may end up below average but you can’t ignore storms just because they don’t fit into your statement that the “Atlantic looks more hostile then you remember”
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#777 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:53 am

Is the NHC more likely now to name subtropical storms due to new data or new definitions? We can’t ignore the systems but to make good analog comparisons to past seasons context is necessary.


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#778 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:43 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
STS Debby was just named, so yes we will have atleast one storm in the month of August.


A real storm was the real question. Sub tropical in August might as well be nothing :lol:


Sub Tropical or not it is still a classified storm, and the 4th storm of the season by August 7th .. sure the season may end up below average but you can’t ignore storms just because they don’t fit into your statement that the “Atlantic looks more hostile then you remember”


Again, the Atlantic is hostile. Nothing in the long range in AUGUST. Which was my question. A STS in August is like someone putting lipstick on a pig. If we do not get any more REAL storms this August I believe my statement still holds true. To each their own.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#779 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:27 pm

I would be shocked if we do not get at least one deep tropics development by the end of August. Even the quietest of years usually have signs of activity by the last week of August. With Debby, the Atlantic has avoided a dead August, but we will probably see 1-2 more named storms and possibly one hurricane by the end of August.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#780 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: The 3rd Subtropical Storm of the season. :roll:


Don't ignore the fact that one of those was previously the earliest hurricane in the deep tropics.
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