2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#841 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:17 am

:uarrow: We're going to have a very short hurricane season based on that graphic and how poor the background state is.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#842 Postby blp » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:39 am

I don't have much faith in the vertical instability graphic. It never went above or even stayed near normal last year during the peak months despite it being hyperactive.
2017
Image

What concerns me this year is:
1)The strength of the African Wave Train
2)Stronger than normal high pressure off New foundland which could steer systems closer to land.
3) Lower wind shear heading into the peak time do to the failure of El Niño to develop.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#843 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:43 pm

Currently we're at 5/2/0, at the midpoint of August, with about 18 ACE. There's 2013 talk in the model thread, and I want to reply to that here since it's the place, comparing this year to some other years by this point.

1978: 4/1/0 with 8 ACE, and nothing further formed until August 26, and the season didn't really take off with Ella's formation on Aug 30.
1979: 3/1/0 with 4.5 ACE, and not one storm formed in August until the 25th, which was David.
1981: 4/0/0 with 6.5 ACE. Dennis was reforming and became a hurricane a few days later, but it was the first of the season (this year has had two) and like this year, there were only two storms in the deep tropics by this point (one being in May) and the rest were high-latitude systems. Nothing more formed until Aug 31, after which there were 5/5/3 in a matter of three weeks.
1984: nothing had formed outside of three depressions, and the subtropical storm that year was still a few days away, and nothing else formed until Aug 29, after which there were nine storms over three weeks or so.
1988: only two short lived storms had formed by this point, both in August and both at higher latitude (one in the Gulf from a trough and one off the east coast), and no more storms developed until Aug 28--Gilbert followed two weeks after that.
1990: 6/2/0 and about 20 ACE, with Fran having recently dissipated, but two storms formed in the subtropics, including one hurricane. We ended up with Gustav and Hortense at the end of August, and an active October.
2001: 3/0/0 with with about 7.5 ACE. Chantal rode through the Caribbean in mid-August, but there was nothing in July (where the strongest activity this year was so far.) Nothing else formed until Aug 22, which was Dean, and only lasted for two two-day periods about five days apart, and nothing formed the rest of the month. But September and October were quite active, with over 90% of the season's activity occurring after that point.
2002: only three short-lived storms had formed by this point, all of non-tropical origin, and nothing else (not even a depression) developed until Aug 29, after which there were 9 storms and four hurricanes over the next five weeks.

A few other years of note, being 1996, 1998, and 1999 with no named storms in August before the 19th (and 1999 seeing nothing in July), and 2010 which had only Colin in August prior to the 21st. Even 2003 (despite it's somewhat active July) saw only Erika (which had non-tropical origin, just like this year's August storms so far) before August 27.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#844 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:50 pm

Hammy wrote:Currently we're at 5/2/0, at the midpoint of August, with about 18 ACE. There's 2013 talk in the model thread, and I want to reply to that here since it's the place, comparing this year to some other years by this point.

1978: 4/1/0 with 8 ACE, and nothing further formed until August 26, and the season didn't really take off with Ella's formation on Aug 30.
1979: 3/1/0 with 4.5 ACE, and not one storm formed in August until the 25th, which was David.
1981: 4/0/0 with 6.5 ACE. Dennis was reforming and became a hurricane a few days later, but it was the first of the season (this year has had two) and like this year, there were only two storms in the deep tropics by this point (one being in May) and the rest were high-latitude systems. Nothing more formed until Aug 31, after which there were 5/5/3 in a matter of three weeks.
1984: nothing had formed outside of three depressions, and the subtropical storm that year was still a few days away, and nothing else formed until Aug 29, after which there were nine storms over three weeks or so.
1988: only two short lived storms had formed by this point, both in August and both at higher latitude (one in the Gulf from a trough and one off the east coast), and no more storms developed until Aug 28--Gilbert followed two weeks after that.
1990: 6/2/0 and about 20 ACE, with Fran having recently dissipated, but two storms formed in the subtropics, including one hurricane. We ended up with Gustav and Hortense at the end of August, and an active October.
2001: 3/0/0 with with about 7.5 ACE. Chantal rode through the Caribbean in mid-August, but there was nothing in July (where the strongest activity this year was so far.) Nothing else formed until Aug 22, which was Dean, and only lasted for two two-day periods about five days apart, and nothing formed the rest of the month. But September and October were quite active, with over 90% of the season's activity occurring after that point.
2002: only three short-lived storms had formed by this point, all of non-tropical origin, and nothing else (not even a depression) developed until Aug 29, after which there were 9 storms and four hurricanes over the next five weeks.

A few other years of note, being 1996, 1998, and 1999 with no named storms in August before the 19th (and 1999 seeing nothing in July), and 2010 which had only Colin in August prior to the 21st. Even 2003 (despite it's somewhat active July) saw only Erika (which had non-tropical origin, just like this year's August storms so far) before August 27.

The average first major hurricane does not form until September 4. This year we have already had two hurricanes including a Category 2. We could go all of August without a hurricane but the Atlantic base state looks more favorable for September. There are some entire seasons (with 2001/2002 as examples) where there were no hurricanes at all until September.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#845 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:24 am

CFS appears to show a 1981-type setup for September, with 3-4 fairly strong hurricanes at rough intervals, all back to back recurves at various points. I just did a quick check before bed so I'll have a map up later but I'll leave this here.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#846 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:29 am

Hammy wrote:CFS appears to show a 1981-type setup for September, with 3-4 fairly strong hurricanes at rough intervals, all back to back recurves at various points. I just did a quick check before bed so I'll have a map up later but I'll leave this here.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0


Were these storms recurve is anyone's guess not putting to much stock on a 500+ hr model. A couple of florida threats during the 1981 hurricane season.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#847 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:08 am

All I know is most people are wondering why it’s not more active than it is right now on August 17th. Do you guys realize that this is what is very typical of an forecasted inactive season during the -AMO period? Yes we will likely see somewhat of an uptick in activity throughout the next several weeks but luckily it shouldn’t be anywhere close to the extreme levels of last season.

Btw, Puerto Rico just recently restored power to the full island 11 months after Maria. Last thing those folks need is any sort of tropical cyclone so an unfavorable Tropical Atlantic is a welcomed sight!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#848 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:32 am

CCKW that helped 99L is going to move into the IO/Pacific region to round out August. My bet would be if there is development in the near term then I'd put money on another high latitude system.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#849 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:33 am

TheStormExpert wrote:All I know is most people are wondering why it’s not more active than it is right now on August 17th. Do you guys realize that this is what is very typical of an forecasted inactive season during the -AMO period? Yes we will likely see somewhat of an uptick in activity throughout the next several weeks but luckily it shouldn’t be anywhere close to the extreme levels of last season.

Btw, Puerto Rico just recently restored power to the full island 11 months after Maria. Last thing those folks need is any sort of tropical cyclone so an unfavorable Tropical Atlantic is a welcomed sight!


I totally understand your POV, I on the other hand would love another active season as I sell roofing for a living. It's selfish but it's how I think.
Last edited by toad strangler on Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#850 Postby wxGuy » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:33 am

Again it's only August 17th, by August 22nd things shall ramp up ;) GFS been showing some activity last few days, she hinting at something here... Might have sniffed something out way ahead of time like she always does
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#851 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:53 am

Probably the more productive discussion to have is how the average trough position on the east coast, Bermuda high placement, TUTTs, etc. are setting up as we enter the active period of the season. So when we do get into this period soon, we have a general idea on where things may go.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#852 Postby CFLHurricane » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:55 pm

JPmia wrote:Probably the more productive discussion to have is how the average trough position on the east coast, Bermuda high placement, TUTTs, etc. are setting up as we enter the active period of the season. So when we do get into this period soon, we have a general idea on where things may go.


I would think Gulf Coast eastward to the Florida Peninsula should be on alert this season judging by the tracking of 99L and the conducive conditions so close to CONUS.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#853 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:43 pm


@BenNollWeather
Buzz around the weather world is about the (so far) quiet Atlantic hurricane season --> the basin has been dominated by sinking air (x) in recent months & it will continue in the next 2-3 weeks, but that is expected to fade later in Sep (+).

...don't let your guard down!


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1030468273555484676


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#854 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:28 pm

:uarrow: Didn't the forecast a week or so ago have that sinking air clearing out by the end of August? Now it's mid-September?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#855 Postby canes92 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:20 pm

Appears Gulf is a likely hot spot were a hurricane to form in there or in the Caribbean. Low shear and higher vertical instability. Hot waters.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#856 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:25 pm

Hammy wrote::uarrow: Didn't the forecast a week or so ago have that sinking air clearing out by the end of August? Now it's mid-September?


Nope, it has always been September. Go back to his original tweet.

NDG wrote:@BenNollWeather

[6 August] Atlantic tropical interests keep watch!

The basin is finally forecast to have more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone genesis as we head into mid-September, a little over 1 month away.


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1026606724864651264


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#857 Postby Chris90 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:57 pm

Since the debate has been ongoing here and in the models thread over season cancel or not, I just wanted to quickly mention a couple of interesting tidbits:

Beryl was the earliest formation of a hurricane in the MDR region since Hurricane Two in 1933.

Chris was the earliest second hurricane in a season since 2005.

Obviously 1933 and 2005 are the two most active seasons on record for the Atlantic. Do I think this year will compare to those seasons? No. We would have needed more activity up to this point. I think this year will definitely be quieter than those years, but I don't think it is going to be as dead as some people are advertising it to be. I think those are some interesting statistics that might hint at the season being a bit more active than what some are anticipating.

Also, if you are really antsy for some tropical weather, there are other basins to follow. Come join us in tracking Lane as he intensifies in the EPAC, heading for the CPAC. :lol:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#858 Postby blp » Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:14 am

SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.

Image
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#859 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:21 am

blp wrote:SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.


How likely is it that the SSTs being so far below normal was causing the sinking air, or at least contributing to the lack of instability?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#860 Postby NotSparta » Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:04 am

Hammy wrote:
blp wrote:SST's have completely rebounded in the MDR from a month ago just in time for the peak. So I am taking the SST's off the negative list. Only big negative left is the sinking air which if the models are correct is on the way out in the next couple of weeks.


How likely is it that the SSTs being so far below normal was causing the sinking air, or at least contributing to the lack of instability?


Cooler SSTs lessen the temperature difference between upper levels & sfc, which means less instability. Cooler SSTs also correlate to stronger NE trades, which increases SAL, which further decreases stability
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