2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#901 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:03 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Loving that once again we can see SAL coverage basin-wide (even into the East Pacific)! Btw, that’s quite a bit of SAL for mid-late August, no wonder the Atlantic is completely shut down and not expected to do much anytime soon. My seasonal numbers of 12/5/2 are obviously too high unless things change fast. Also mid-level dry air is just dominating the basin right now. This is a complete 180 degree from this day a year ago.



I was about to post this! Love the new look of the SAL info. It's much better, graphics wise.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#902 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:07 am

The Saharan air Layer map has a new look that is nitid. Is in the first post of graphics.

Image

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plit&time=
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#903 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:24 pm

I was comparing 2002 to this year and found some similarities (and a few differences) that points to the possibility of this year being a slightly stronger version.

This year featured a storm in May, 2002 didn't (though something tried forming off Florida in 2002)
Both years went the entirety of June with no development
Both years had a system form off the Carolinas during July (though this year's was stronger, in addition to Beryl forming in the deep tropics)
Both years had two weaker storms of non tropical origin in the first half of August (this year's were later in the month and farther north)
Both years featured a significant lull in activity during much of August--2002 had a bone-dry MDR with nothing developing prior to the 29th (and in fact 2002 featured a lull where nothing formed between Aug 7 and 29.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#904 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:00 pm

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#905 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:49 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#906 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:14 am

Ventrice joins the more active September chorus.

@MJVentrice
Signs of life continue across the Atlantic's Main Development Region during the first week of September regarding tropical cyclone development. Also, seeing a ~10% risk for a developing tropical cyclone near the Southeast/Eastern U.S. seaboard. Things to watch moving forward...


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032614485054418944


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#907 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:31 am



Why the double googly eyes? Social Media won't load on my corporate computer.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#908 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:39 am

:uarrow: Changes on the horizon for the Atlantic --> pattern of subsidence over the basin is forecast to end after the first week of September, which probably means we'll be watching the models for tropical cyclone genesis. [CHI anomaly/JMA weeklies]

Graphic has a video that shows pattern flip from brown to purple throughout the basin. I guess purple means better. :)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#909 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:45 am

Is this part of the favorable phase of the MJO entering our part of the world or is it something totally different?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#910 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:47 am

This may very well be a late blooming season or even back-loaded if correct.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1032618543442010114


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#911 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:30 am

Interesting outlook, an Eastern ridge is likely to be in place as well for at least the first 1/3 of September.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#912 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:39 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#913 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:47 am

SFLcane wrote:50% probability of genesis


Or you know, 50% probability of it not happening. A coin toss. Just call me the glass half full guy. :lol:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#914 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:20 am

At this point, I just want a nice long-tracking cape verde hurricane that doesn't affect land and brings great surf. Is that too much to ask for? :D
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#915 Postby Dylan » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:28 am

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#916 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:18 pm

@MJVentrice
A quiet front half of August regarding strong African easterly waves across the MDR. Things may slowly change in the coming weeks, though another reason why 2018 is not a fraction of what 2017 was to date.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032676864056336384


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#917 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:58 pm

Does anyone know off hand when the last time (aside from Super Nino 1997) we had a hurricane in July but not August?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#918 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:09 am

@EricBlake12
Always surprises me how it is all connected- 1994 showed up many times in analog years for 2018 with no consideration of NAO @philklotzbach @MJVentrice


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1033323350116974592


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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#919 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:24 am

1994 is a good Eastern Pacific match too. That season features multiple storms tracking west through the Central Pacific, similar to how this year has behaved thus far.

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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#920 Postby Dylan » Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:51 am

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