When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

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When do you think we will see Alberto form?

Poll ended at Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:08 pm

April
1
3%
May
17
46%
June 1-10
5
14%
June 11-20
4
11%
June 21-30
6
16%
July 1-10
1
3%
July 11-20
2
5%
July 21-31
0
No votes
August and beyond
1
3%
 
Total votes: 37

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CyclonicFury
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When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:11 pm

I’m going to guess late June.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form?

#2 Postby NDG » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:37 pm

Some time in May.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form?

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:21 am

Between the 5th and the 9th of June. Probably Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean!
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form?

#4 Postby chaser1 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:53 am

NDG wrote:Some time in May.


Yep, sometime in May was what I was thinking too
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:10 pm

Added a poll to make this question more interesting. It closes on April 15 at 2:08 PM EDT.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#6 Postby CFLHurricane » Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:44 am

I’m going to make a bold guess, Cotton, and go with April. I think this will be another whirlwind year that will leave us burnt out before peak season.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:09 am

If we do indeed get Alberto in April or May, NHC is going to have to start seriously considering extending the season to start on May 15 to match with the east Pacific. I don’t think they are interested in doing so, though.

I personally think the second half of May is active enough to be considered hurricane season for the Atlantic. (Though nearly all storms that form in this time are weak).
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:If we do indeed get Alberto in April or May, NHC is going to have to start seriously considering extending the season to start on May 15 to match with the east Pacific. I don’t think they are interested in doing so, though.

I personally think the second half of May is active enough to be considered hurricane season for the Atlantic. (Though nearly all storms that form in this time are weak).

Last year we didn’t have a storm in May, and I don’t believe we came close to either. Arlene in April was also only the 2nd occurrence I believe that a TC formed in the Atlantic in April, first being Ana in April 2003.

But yeah it has been starting to become more common to see May Atlantic TC’s over the past decade with 2012 sticking out for being one of the two years to have two May Atlantic TC’s and one nearly become a hurricane prior to striking the rarely struck NE Florida region Memorial Day Weekend that year.

I’d go with us seeing Alberto in May again like in 2012 likely off the SE U.S. Coast mid-late month starting out as a Subtropical entity just like that particular year. :)
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#9 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:35 pm

How the heck are you guys even thinking about guessing when a tropical storm will happen while we're still in March????

(I kinda bopped out once the season ended, went to r/tropicalweather for a few months, then came back because that subreddit died down after all the tropics kinda went quiet. So I'm not too angry...given it keeps up activity on this site 8-) )
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#10 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:40 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:How the heck are you guys even thinking about guessing when a tropical storm will happen while we're still in March????



We're funny that way. :wink:

I'm guessing first week in June. Can't have preseason storms every year...right? Although I wouldn't be surprised if it's May.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#11 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:29 am

I usually don’t post any personal predictions, but I think I will make an exception this time. I think that we will have an early start this year. Probably mid to late May. My personal thoughts are that because of the negative NAO and warm sst’s in the GOM and sw atlantic something will spin up either in the GOM or Atlantic. A cluster of storms or a spin up off a front is most likely. With any luck the negative NAO will be long gone by mid spring, but I’m not sure. Anyway it really needs to get out of here, it has caused havoc here on the east coast in March.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:42 pm

Any of the members that have not voted yet in this poll still have time as on April 15 at 2:08 PM EDT it will close.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#13 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 19, 2018 10:19 pm

If we do not get Alberto from this upcoming Caribbean/Gulf system (and it appears as if we likely won't), then the streak of pre-season starts for the Atlantic will come to an end.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 25, 2018 9:21 am

Those who said May are correct. Alberto has formed today. Four years in a row of preseason named storms!
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Tue May 29, 2018 8:49 pm

Okay, maybe we can have preseason storms every year. :lol:
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