Trough near Bahamas

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CyclonicFury
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Trough near Bahamas

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 02, 2018 10:03 am

Not very likely to develop due to shear, but we will probably see a weak low level circulation form.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#2 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed May 02, 2018 10:05 am

Oh, so NOW shear wants to do something. Instead of taking care of anything last year.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 02, 2018 10:09 am

Though this system is unlikely to develop into anything, I think it could be a precursor signal that this could be an area to watch come hurricane season.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 02, 2018 10:48 am

CyclonicFury wrote:Though this system is unlikely to develop into anything, I think it could be a precursor signal that this could be an area to watch come hurricane season.

With the area from the Bahamas and off the SE U.S. Coast to the NE into the North-Central Atlantic being the only spot in the Atlantic today to feature widespread warmer than average SST’s this should be the place to consistently watch this season, along with the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#5 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 02, 2018 11:06 am

CyclonicFury wrote:Though this system is unlikely to develop into anything, I think it could be a precursor signal that this could be an area to watch come hurricane season.


It does reflect the SSTs, but unless this was from an African wave, it wouldn't mean much more, imo
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#6 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed May 02, 2018 11:13 am

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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 02, 2018 11:44 am

NotSparta wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Though this system is unlikely to develop into anything, I think it could be a precursor signal that this could be an area to watch come hurricane season.


It does reflect the SSTs, but unless this was from an African wave, it wouldn't mean much more, imo

WxMan57 mentioned yesterday that the source may be from an area that at or near 50w yesterday just east of the Caribbean.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#8 Postby ronjon » Wed May 02, 2018 12:30 pm

From the models, it looks like initially the origin of this system will be a mid-to-upper level low. if that is the case, its unlikely to develop much of a low pressure system at the surface (perhaps a weak broad reflection) - this is what the GFS has been forecasting pretty consistently.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#9 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed May 02, 2018 3:02 pm

LONG TERM: For this weekend, latest models show a mid-level trough moving across the northeast CONUS and mid-atlantic, with a weak frontal boundary moving through the southern US and into Florida peninsula. However the weather system that will influence our weather first will be what latest models have been trending towards. A trough moving westward across the Caribbean and Bahamas some models develop this trough into a weak low pressure system moving through the Florida Straits and over Cuba. Regardless if the trough develops into a low pressure system or not, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida this weekend. We will continue to monitor how this all progresses with latest models runs.

From Miami NWS discussion
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#10 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 02, 2018 7:00 pm

This trough may just kick off the rainy season early for South Florida which usually starts around May 21st but has been known to start earlier in May.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#11 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 03, 2018 7:36 am

Too much shear for significant development, but maybe not enough to prevent a sheared surface low to form before it moves into SE Florida on Saturday morning. Winds maybe 30-35 mph north of the low center as it crosses the Bahamas today/Friday. NHC is remaining silent for now.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 03, 2018 11:55 am

@TropicalTidbits
Note also how the low-level trough (purple contours) starts off east of the upper-level +PV, but there is not enough baroclinicity to maintain that alignment, so the low-level trough decouples and moves west, where it encounters unfavorable forcing for convection and decays.




https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/992083280898985985
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#13 Postby northjaxpro » Thu May 03, 2018 5:21 pm

FWIW, the latest 18Z GFS spins up a potential 1004 mb tropical or sub-tropical cyclone on Wednesday just off the coast of North Carolina. It looks to be the system we are monitoring down near the Bahamas currently, which looks to move north and then drift northeast by early next week.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 04, 2018 9:10 am

Maybe a invest very soon?

Image
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#15 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 04, 2018 9:32 am

I heard that Stacey Stewart was on duty yesterday at the NHC. He wasn’t concerned enough to issue any special outlook. I think this system should be an invest. Maybe a 20-30% chance of an STS off the Carolinas next Tue-Wed. VERY typical early-season semi-tropical storm system. High shear would limit its strengthening potential.

I know that there’s a big hurricane awareness tour in progress across the U.S. I’m wondering if NHC staffing might be a little low to go 24/7 with regular outlooks. I have no idea of their staffing, but I suppose that could be one consideration when deciding to start outlooks on a pre-season system that currently doesn’t have a great chance of developing. I’m sure if they perceived a real threat that they would be covering it fully.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#16 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 04, 2018 9:46 am

No development expected from NHC
NHC wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 041443
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1045 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is
associated with an upper-level low pressure system and a surface
trough. The system is forecast to move westward over the Florida
peninsula on Saturday with no significant development. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the
Bahamas and southern Florida through this weekend. Please monitor
products from your local weather office for more details. No
additional Special Outlooks on this system will be issued unless
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#17 Postby Alyono » Fri May 04, 2018 9:58 am

I'd give this a 10% chance of development. However, any development will not occur until it is passing east of NC
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#18 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 04, 2018 10:06 am

First TWO of the season, here's to a quiet and inactive year. :D
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#19 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri May 04, 2018 10:12 am

Time passes quickly. Hard to believe the we are getting close to the start of the Hurricane Season.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#20 Postby gatorcane » Fri May 04, 2018 10:59 am

Not that bad looking at all for this time of year. Vis loop below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
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