The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts.
That means we are coming up on the return period for a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall within the next decade or two. Also, if you take into account 1935, then 1969 (Camille), and 1992 (Andrew) you average to a Cat 5 U.S. landfall every 28.5 years which would put Hurricane Season 2020 right on the mark.
So I ask for a topic of discussion, when do you think the next Cat 5 U.S. landfall will take place? My guess is sometime in the next ten years, probably by Hurricane Season 2023.