The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is no one going to point out the irony that this topic was started by "Hurricane Mike"?

[gatorcane]

Is no one going to point out the irony that this topic was started by "Hurricane Mike"?

Good point

[Patrick99]

I'm not surprised by a Cat 5 landfall, but I am surprised that it (likely) happened in the FL Panhandle and not in peninsular Florida, specifically I-4 to points south.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not surprised by a Cat 5 landfall, but I am surprised that it (likely) happened in the FL Panhandle and not in peninsular Florida, specifically I-4 to points south.

Irma fortunately wasn't one last year, it had potential to maintain its Cat.5 strength if it hadn't plowed into Cuba.

[toad strangler]

I'm not surprised by a Cat 5 landfall, but I am surprised that it (likely) happened in the FL Panhandle and not in peninsular Florida, specifically I-4 to points south.

Irma fortunately wasn't one last year, it had potential to maintain its Cat.5 strength if it hadn't plowed into Cuba.

Irma was falling apart at landfall and basically was just half a hurricane. We got very lucky.

[somethingfunny]

So perhaps 2018, despite its likely featuring less-than-average activity, might be a year to watch out for that one big storm, maybe even a homegrown event.

Giving this post some recognition!

[Abdullah]

2020 may be a year to watch.

[DioBrando]

2020 may be a year to watch.

why do u think so bruh

[Abdullah]

2020 may be a year to watch.

why do u think so bruh

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

[CFLHurricane]

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your news letter.

[Abdullah]

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your news letter.

My next article's named,"Why you shouldn't subscribe to this news letter."

[DioBrando]

2020 may be a year to watch.

why do u think so bruh

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

How do you know the Nino is expected to last until Christmas 2019?

[chaser1]

why do u think so bruh

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

How do you know the Nino is expected to last until Christmas 2019?

I do believe that I have read speculation (within the El Nino thread) that the oncoming El Nino may well be a "protracted event". That had yet to be confirmed but the pretense of that potentially occuring does make a case for an active 2020 Hurricane Season. DioBrando, what are YOUR thoughts on the subject? This "Brah" (and perhaps CFLHurricane as well?) just may want to subscribe to your monthly newsletter on the topic.

[DioBrando]

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

How do you know the Nino is expected to last until Christmas 2019?

I do believe that I have read speculation (within the El Nino thread) that the oncoming El Nino may well be a "protracted event". That had yet to be confirmed but the pretense of that potentially occuring does make a case for an active 2020 Hurricane Season. DioBrando, what are YOUR thoughts on the subject? This "Brah" (and perhaps CFLHurricane as well?) just may want to subscribe to your monthly newsletter on the topic.

I just smell that 2019 will have a nasty storm still, and 2020 might have storms flying everywhere but nothing too serious

[chaser1]

How do you know the Nino is expected to last until Christmas 2019?

I do believe that I have read speculation (within the El Nino thread) that the oncoming El Nino may well be a "protracted event". That had yet to be confirmed but the pretense of that potentially occuring does make a case for an active 2020 Hurricane Season. DioBrando, what are YOUR thoughts on the subject? This "Brah" (and perhaps CFLHurricane as well?) just may want to subscribe to your monthly newsletter on the topic.

I just smell that 2019 will have a nasty storm still, and 2020 might have storms flying everywhere but nothing too serious

Know what dude? You could very well be right..... which leads me to my point. There's a bunch of people a lot smarter then me who admittedly don't have a clue how this upcoming El Nino is gonna play out. For that reason, I won't call you out by asking "What are YOU smelling to think 2019 will have a nasty storm?" Nope. For all I know, there will be one narly Cat 5' next summer..... smack in the middle of some ultra rare El Nino-burger just sticken' around till Christmas 2019.

[Abdullah]

why do u think so bruh

Look, I'm not stating a fact, or even opinion.
I don't know. First of all, it's twentytwenty. I have a strong gut feeling.
Second of all, The El Niño that is supposed to be forming right now is expected to persist until late 2019. 2020's right after that. It could easily be La Niña by then.

How do you know the Nino is expected to last until Christmas 2019?

I don't know. I should have said currently projected. Look at chaser1's posts to find out why.

[HurricaneRyan]

Since Michael was upgraded, we officially have ended the 26 year streak without a Cat 5 US landfall.

[toad strangler]

Since Michael was upgraded, we officially have ended the 26 year streak without a Cat 5 US landfall.

And Florida it is again.

[Shell Mound]

Eventually, sometime in the future, perhaps not too distantly, we may be unfortunate eyewitnesses to two consecutive seasons with at least one Cat-5 landfall each in the continental (contiguous) U.S. (lower forty-eight states). (We already saw an unprecedented occurrence last season: two Cat-5 hits on the territorial U.S. in a single calendar year—Typhoon Yutu in the WPAC and Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic.) With the likelihood of an above-average season increasing, and with the long-term pattern favouring ridging over/near the East Coast since 2016, we could certainly see at least some opportunities for just such a rare and catastrophic incidence. Personally, if I were to venture an informed but random guess, if a Cat-5 were to strike the U.S. in 2019, it would more likely be a long-tracking CV system, rather than a homegrown event like Michael. I could certainly envision a system that strengthens early on, stair-steps its way to just north of the Leeward Islands/Greater Antilles, and heads west-northwestward across the south-central Bahamas en route to Miami/Fort Lauderdale, then turns northwestward across the peninsula, passing south of Lake Okeechobee and then over Tampa/St. Petersburg, briefly entering the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the south and west of Cedar Key, with a second and final landfall over St. Marks, the eye passing over the Tallahassee area.

[SconnieCane]

Eventually, sometime in the future, perhaps not too distantly, we may be unfortunate eyewitnesses to two consecutive seasons with at least one Cat-5 landfall each in the continental (contiguous) U.S. (lower forty-eight states). (We already saw an unprecedented occurrence last season: two Cat-5 hits on the territorial U.S. in a single calendar year—Typhoon Yutu in the WPAC and Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic.) With the likelihood of an above-average season increasing, and with the long-term pattern favouring ridging over/near the East Coast since 2016, we could certainly see at least some opportunities for just such a rare and catastrophic incidence. Personally, if I were to venture an informed but random guess, if a Cat-5 were to strike the U.S. in 2019, it would more likely be a long-tracking CV system, rather than a homegrown event like Michael. I could certainly envision a system that strengthens early on, stair-steps its way to just north of the Leeward Islands/Greater Antilles, and heads west-northwestward across the south-central Bahamas en route to Miami/Fort Lauderdale...

I really thought Irma was gonna be that storm. It taught me just how much has to go right (meteorologically speaking) for a storm to be at Cat. 5 strength when it hits the CONUS. Michael was that rare scenario of perfect timing, with just enough time over water (but not so much that it began an ERC) and other synoptic features placed just right to create a poleward outflow channel and not induce shear and/or inject dry air.