The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

[SFLcane]

Eventually, sometime in the future, perhaps not too distantly, we may be unfortunate eyewitnesses to two consecutive seasons with at least one Cat-5 landfall each in the continental (contiguous) U.S. (lower forty-eight states). (We already saw an unprecedented occurrence last season: two Cat-5 hits on the territorial U.S. in a single calendar year—Typhoon Yutu in the WPAC and Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic.) With the likelihood of an above-average season increasing, and with the long-term pattern favouring ridging over/near the East Coast since 2016, we could certainly see at least some opportunities for just such a rare and catastrophic incidence. Personally, if I were to venture an informed but random guess, if a Cat-5 were to strike the U.S. in 2019, it would more likely be a long-tracking CV system, rather than a homegrown event like Michael. I could certainly envision a system that strengthens early on, stair-steps its way to just north of the Leeward Islands/Greater Antilles, and heads west-northwestward across the south-central Bahamas en route to Miami/Fort Lauderdale, then turns northwestward across the peninsula, passing south of Lake Okeechobee and then over Tampa/St. Petersburg, briefly entering the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the south and west of Cedar Key, with a second and final landfall over St. Marks, the eye passing over the Tallahassee area.

No, no, and NO. Thankfully these storms are extremely rare.

[CrazyC83]

Only four sets of years have even had consecutive hits of cat 4+ hurricanes: 1915-16, 1947-48-49-50 (that was an impressive stretch in Florida!), 1959-60-61 (almost had five straight; Audrey was initially cat 4 and Helene just missed landfall at cat 4) and 2017-18. If Celia 1970 is upgraded as suspected, 1969-70 would be added to the list. That said, they can come in bunches so we might just add more.

[Shell Mound]

Only four sets of years have even had consecutive hits of cat 4+ hurricanes: 1915-16, 1947-48-49-50 (that was an impressive stretch in Florida!), 1959-60-61 (almost had five straight; Audrey was initially cat 4 and Helene just missed landfall at cat 4) and 2017-18. If Celia 1970 is upgraded as suspected, 1969-70 would be added to the list. That said, they can come in bunches so we might just add more.

Eventually, given warming SSTs, a Cat-4+ will almost certainly make landfall between the Outer Banks and southern New England. Just transpose a repeat or stronger of the 1821 Norfolk–Long Island hurricane, the 1944 Great Atlantic hurricane, or BOB (1991). Eventually, the timing and placement of features will enable a tropical cyclone to deepen significantly and maintain its intensity for a sufficiently long period of time prior to landfall, despite existing in proximity to an approaching trough—in other words, a setup with some elements borrowed from that of MICHAEL (2018), albeit with some key differences.

[Shell Mound]

Eventually, sometime in the future, perhaps not too distantly, we may be unfortunate eyewitnesses to two consecutive seasons with at least one Cat-5 landfall each in the continental (contiguous) U.S. (lower forty-eight states). (We already saw an unprecedented occurrence last season: two Cat-5 hits on the territorial U.S. in a single calendar year—Typhoon Yutu in the WPAC and Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic.) With the likelihood of an above-average season increasing, and with the long-term pattern favouring ridging over/near the East Coast since 2016, we could certainly see at least some opportunities for just such a rare and catastrophic incidence. Personally, if I were to venture an informed but random guess, if a Cat-5 were to strike the U.S. in 2019, it would more likely be a long-tracking CV system, rather than a homegrown event like Michael. I could certainly envision a system that strengthens early on, stair-steps its way to just north of the Leeward Islands/Greater Antilles, and heads west-northwestward across the south-central Bahamas en route to Miami/Fort Lauderdale...

I really thought Irma was gonna be that storm. It taught me just how much has to go right (meteorologically speaking) for a storm to be at Cat. 5 strength when it hits the CONUS. Michael was that rare scenario of perfect timing, with just enough time over water (but not so much that it began an ERC) and other synoptic features placed just right to create a poleward outflow channel and not induce shear and/or inject dry air.

I'm revisiting this issue, in light of recent close calls (MATTHEW in '16, IRMA in '17, and now DORIAN). Since 2016, at least three Cat-4+ cyclones very nearly made landfall on the east coast of South Florida, only to deviate slightly to the south and west, à la IRMA, or to the east, that is, offshore, à la MATTHEW and DORIAN. IRMA's trek over the northern coast of Cuba likely prevented a devastating Cat-5 landfall on Greater Miami. Only a slight difference in position and timing of features in the cases of MATTHEW and DORIAN would have resulted in Cat-4+ landfalls on the Florida peninsula. Given climate change and other factors, I suspect that we will eventually see a slow-moving, intensifying Cat-5—155-165+ knots or stronger—pass over the Gulf Stream while en route to landfall on metropolitan South Florida. We have been seeing far too many close calls over the past four seasons alone, to not mention all the other near misses since the +AMO cycle began in 1995. People should be looking at the scenes from the Bahamas and envision downtown Miami or Key West (or, in light of MICHAEL, New Orleans).

[SconnieCane]

Remember when Cat. 5s, let alone Cat. 5 landfalls, were a rare thing in the Atlantic basin? The last few years seem especially amazing in light of the relative dearth of significant landfalling TCs from 2008-2015, apart from unwound sloshmakers such as Ike, Irene and Sandy. Of course, I thought 2004-05 were amazing back to back (and 2003 with Isabel). Apparently powerful hurricanes really are like bananas, they come in bunches.

[ncforecaster89]

With the recent threats to S Florida of hurricanes' Dorian and Irma as potential Cat 5 landfalls, as discussed above, it's a vivid reminder that it's only a matter of time before another Cat 5 powerhouse like the 1935 GLDH plows through that general area.

Although Dorian has officially tied the GLDH of 1935 as the strongest known landfalling hurricane in the entire western hemisphere, it's highly likely that the GLDH had MSW speeds greater than the 160 kt currently assigned to it per general wind-pressure relationships. I'm very confident that if Recon had flown back then through that small monster hurricane, with a tiny eye and RMW, that they would've measured FLWs that corresponded to winds of at least 175 kt at the surface. Without Recon, Dorian's intemsity would've likewise been underestimated.

[somethingfunny]

With the recent threats to S Florida of hurricanes' Dorian and Irma as potential Cat 5 landfalls, as discussed above, it's a vivid reminder that it's only a matter of time before another Cat 5 powerhouse like the 1935 GLDH plows through that general area.

Although Dorian has officially tied the GLDH of 1935 as the strongest known landfalling hurricane in the entire western hemisphere, it's highly likely that the GLDH had MSW speeds greater than the 160 kt currently assigned to it per general wind-pressure relationships. I'm very confident that if Recon had flown back then through that small monster hurricane, with a tiny eye and RMW, that they would've measured FLWs that corresponded to winds of at least 175 kt at the surface. Without Recon, Dorian's intemsity would've likewise been underestimated.

I spent quite a while trying to figure out what GLDH stood for. Came up with Ground Leveling Doom Hurricane.

[AnnularCane]

With the recent threats to S Florida of hurricanes' Dorian and Irma as potential Cat 5 landfalls, as discussed above, it's a vivid reminder that it's only a matter of time before another Cat 5 powerhouse like the 1935 GLDH plows through that general area.

Although Dorian has officially tied the GLDH of 1935 as the strongest known landfalling hurricane in the entire western hemisphere, it's highly likely that the GLDH had MSW speeds greater than the 160 kt currently assigned to it per general wind-pressure relationships. I'm very confident that if Recon had flown back then through that small monster hurricane, with a tiny eye and RMW, that they would've measured FLWs that corresponded to winds of at least 175 kt at the surface. Without Recon, Dorian's intemsity would've likewise been underestimated.

I spent quite a while trying to figure out what GLDH stood for. Came up with Ground Leveling Doom Hurricane.

I believe it's a reference to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (LDH) but I'm not sure what the G stands for. I guess "great?"

[FireRat]

I second that 2020 gut feeling...that number,
Hurricane with perfect 2020 vision, a perfect eye. hmmm...

Hope not, but given how the last 4 years have been, I would not be surprised to see one more consecutive year yielding a Cat 5 in the Atlantic. Michael was a borderline C5, maybe this year brings a bonafide 5 to the US.
Dorian and Irma should be looked at as warning shots.

Well, that's enough for tonight, gonna get off the magic 8 ball.

[Shell Mound]

I wonder why we have seen so many Cat-5 systems that narrowly missed a major metropolitan area in the lower forty-eight states or overseas American territories. The northern eyewall of ANDREW (1992) nearly passed over Downtown Miami; MITCH ('98) and WILMA (2005) could have struck both Key West and Miami as Cat-5s, had the synoptic pattern been slightly different and the storms avoided interaction with Central America and/or the Yucatán Peninsula; IRMA ('17) and DORIAN ('19) almost struck metropolitan Southeast FL as Cat-5s. MARIA ('17) might have affected San Juan, PR, at Cat-5 status, had it not undergone an eyewall replacement cycle beforehand. At some point, I would anticipate a Cat-5 landfall on, say, New Orleans, the Tampa Bay area, metropolitan Southeast FL, San Juan, or even Honolulu.

[euro6208]

Overseas American Territories.

Yutu last year made a direct landfall over Tinian.

Our luck may be running out again as the Marianas has the highest probability of getting hit by a Cat 5 than any other area.

[ncforecaster89]

I second that 2020 gut feeling...that number,
Hurricane with perfect 2020 vision, a perfect eye. hmmm...

Hope not, but given how the last 4 years have been, I would not be surprised to see one more consecutive year yielding a Cat 5 in the Atlantic. Michael was a borderline C5, maybe this year brings a bonafide 5 to the US.
Dorian and Irma should be looked at as warning shots.

Well, that's enough for tonight, gonna get off the magic 8 ball.

I'd respectfully argue that Michael was far more than a "borderline" Cat 5 and the collective data (as noted in the NHC TCR) suggested a 145 kt intensity and a lower barometric pressure at landfall was more applicable to its true intensity.

That aside, it's important to recognize that the actual MSW experienced on places like Marsh Harbour were no greater (maybe even slightly less) than the MSW from Michael in Mexico Beach. The huge difference being the absolute MSW in the entire storm struck MB, while Dorian's estimated peak winds (160 kt) were more than 10 nautical miles N of the center and offshore of the more populous areas...with the significantly weaker SW quadrant of the eyewall crossing over Marsh Harbour and Hope Town (although it's probable that HT saw winds about 5 kt greater than at MH).

Regardless, all three locations most assuredly experienced "bonafide" Cat 5 conditions.

[FireRat]

Well that may be true, but officially Michael was upgraded to a 160 mph cat 5. He may have been 170 mph, bonafide 5 by all means, but wind-wise he's officially at the start of C5. Dorian on the other hand was what I meant by "Bonafide" 5, at 185 mph, and well into Cat 5 territory. Irma was another one when she wrecked Barbuda and nearby islands at 180 mph.

Every Cat 5 is incredible in their own right, that's why they're Cat 5 and not cat 4...but some are obviously much stronger than others. For the record, Michael was an incredible storm and hard to beat...but imagine a storm like Dorian striking south FL or Nola.

Btw, I think Abaco might have gotten winds of 180+, because Dorian's 2 mph forward speed probably didn't make much of a difference in wind speeds from the SW eyewall ro the NE quadrant.

[ncforecaster89]

Well that may be true, but officially Michael was upgraded to a 160 mph cat 5. He may have been 170 mph, bonafide 5 by all means, but wind-wise he's officially at the start of C5. Dorian on the other hand was what I meant by "Bonafide" 5, at 185 mph, and well into Cat 5 territory. Irma was another one when she wrecked Barbuda and nearby islands at 180 mph.

Every Cat 5 is incredible in their own right, that's why they're Cat 5 and not cat 4...but some are obviously much stronger than others. For the record, Michael was an incredible storm and hard to beat...but imagine a storm like Dorian striking south FL or Nola.

Btw, I think Abaco might have gotten winds of 180+, because Dorian's 2 mph forward speed probably didn't make much of a difference in wind speeds from the SW eyewall ro the NE quadrant.

I appreciate all the comments you've made, first and foremost. Genuinely hope I'm not coming across the wrong way. It may be my background working in the field and two separate student internships at the NHC that encourages me to be so technical and OCD about such analysis and estimates.

Hurricane Dorian was actually moving very steadily at 7 mph when it passed over Great Abaco...and didn't slow to 2 mph for another 14 hours, thereafter. As a result, it didn't linger over Marsh Harbour or Hope Town like it did on Grand Bahama Island.

Given Dorian's wind structure when it passed over Marsh Harbour and the fact that this location found itself in the weaker SW quadrant...there's simply no way the MSW was anywhere close to 180 mph+. As noted previously, the absolute highest estimated winds (anywhere in the storm) were more than 10 nm north of the center and well away from the town, thankfully.

That's the reason the winds in MH were no more intense (maybe even slightly less so?) than those that struck the western-most side of Mexico Beach during hurricane Michael. Thanks to video documentation by Icyclone (who captured the peak winds that effected MH)...one can make an objective visual comparison between the peak winds observed at each aforementioned location.

The major difference being one location was blasted by the absolute max wind speeds contained anywhere in that Cat 5 hurricane with an unobstructed onshore flow directly into the town. While although the other had a significantly higher absolute MSW...Marsh Harbour was situated such that it found itself in the weaker SW eyewall and wasn't subjected to a direct onshore flow, whereby the winds they experienced were also mitigated by increased friction over land.

To me, it's very important to ascertain the most accurate and best estimate of the MSW that impacted a given town (especially if there's video documentation). Not only from a scientific perspective, but also so that people aren't misled into thinking that MH (for instance) were struck by winds substantially stronger than what actually took place. It's easy for the average lay person (not implying you) to assume that places such as MH and HT got hit with a MSW of 185 mph, simply because that was the absolute peak intensity of the storm, and both places had the eye pass directly over them.

With all that being said, and back to your main point...the U.S. mainland has been quite fortunate that it hasn't been hit with an even stronger Cat 5 than either Andrew or Michael...in at least the past 50 years. It's only a matter of time before another hurricane of a similar intensity as the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 ultimately barrels ashore.

Here are the links to the two respective videos referenced above. Note that the peak winds in the Michael MB video were somewhere between 0:55:00 and 1:17:30...as the highest winds occurred after the wind shift and in the SE quadrant. There's about a two minute segment around the 1:04:00 to 1:06:00 mark that doesn't fit chronologically, as it was footage shot earlier (from over the balcony) during the NE eyewall.

Michael in Mexico Beach:

https://youtu.be/wiL3QKraaTY

Dorian in Marsh Harbour:

https://youtu.be/DV-PLJq4HD4

[FireRat]

Thanks ncforecaster89 and interesting points, that's cool that you're in the field and even got internships at the NHC! I almost had one internship there myself some time ago, but didn't get lucky lol. You certainly didn't come across in any bad way.

Just watched the two chase videos, and yeah Mike was quite vicious indeed! haven't seen such a good Michael video to date, dang! iCyclone got some good shots from Dorian but they also had to take refuge during the worst part it seemed. It's amazing how well the buildings which housed the chasers in both videos held up to these C5 monsters. Looks like the most extreme damage in MH from Dorian came from the surge once again, like a tsunami struck the area.

Back to the future, lol, if we go by the average of 27.7 year intervals of Cat 5s striking the US since 1935 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), it looks like a safe bet for the next Cat 5 strike will be in 2046 plus or minus a couple of years.

Still though, I have a strong feeling about 2020. Not a scientific feeling but more of a gut feeling. Interestingly, had Michael not struck two years ago, this would've been the perfect target year by the numbers.

[ncforecaster89]

Thanks ncforecaster89 and interesting points, that's cool that you're in the field and even got internships at the NHC! I almost had one internship there myself some time ago, but didn't get lucky lol. You certainly didn't come across in any bad way.

Just watched the two chase videos, and yeah Mike was quite vicious indeed! haven't seen such a good Michael video to date, dang! iCyclone got some good shots from Dorian but they also had to take refuge during the worst part it seemed. It's amazing how well the buildings which housed the chasers in both videos held up to these C5 monsters. Looks like the most extreme damage in MH from Dorian came from the surge once again, like a tsunami struck the area.

Back to the future, lol, if we go by the average of 27.7 year intervals of Cat 5s striking the US since 1935 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), it looks like a safe bet for the next Cat 5 strike will be in 2046 plus or minus a couple of years.

Still though, I have a strong feeling about 2020. Not a scientific feeling but more of a gut feeling. Interestingly, had Michael not struck two years ago, this would've been the perfect target year by the numbers.

Hi FireRat, thanks very much for the kind words. I actually left working in the field in the early 90's. My focus was centered around becoming a lead forecaster at the NHC, but didn't stay in the field long enough to fulfill that goal. My then fiancee (ultimately ex-wife) was the main reason I left the field. Another less impactful reason was the desire to have the flexibility in my schedule to chase hurricanes, rather than be stuck in the office.

As you noted, the vast majority of damage in MH was caused by the huge storm surge. That was also the case for MB with hurricane Michael, as well...despite both locations enduring wind speeds of Cat 5 intensity.

Given we are still in the +AMO phase and coming out of an El Nino early this year, there's likely a greater than average probability of continued inceased NATL basin major hurricane activity. Even if the 2020 season doesn't feature favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, it's important to remember that it only takes a very small window of conducive conditions for a single tropical disturbance to potentially achieve Cat 5 intensity (like Andrew in 1992)...in an otherwise unfavorable background seasonal state. Of course, category-five hurricanes are a relatively rare phenomenon in the NATL basin...and certainly far moreso in regards to U.S. landfalls on the mainland. As such, it might occur next year or it might not even happen for another 50 years. Time will tell, and I'm sure we're all looking forward to seeing what ultimately transpires; not only during next season, but all the others that follow! Thanks again for your comment.

[FireRat]

You're quite welcome ncforecaster89!!

I know real well how family matters can influence our career lives, I hope you are happy with your present weather life, all the best wishes!
I've given thought to chasing severe storms and hurricanes myself, it would be more fun and exciting than the office for sure! Bad weather is what got me into meteorology in the 1st place lol.

Well, as for the seasons ahead, I'm sure they will be amazing ones to track in their own ways, and time will surely tell when we might see the next C5 powerhouse bearing down on our shores! 2020 seems like it could be interesting judging by the +AMO and coming off the Nino earlier this yr too like you mentioned. Thanks for your comments and input too!

[toad strangler]

Not US landfall but pertains to the thread I think

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1180622670955606016

[somethingfunny]

Not US landfall but pertains to the three I think

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1180622670955606016

Do you know when the latest Cat5 Atlantic landfall was? I know Michael was the latest US Cat5 landfall. It looks like the November 1932 Cuba storm landfalled at Cat4 (I have a tough time with Wikipedia's color scheme)

[Shell Mound]

Not US landfall but pertains to the three I think

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1180622670955606016

Do you know when the latest Cat5 Atlantic landfall was? I know Michael was the latest US Cat5 landfall. It looks like the November 1932 Cuba storm landfalled at Cat4 (I have a tough time with Wikipedia's color scheme)

The 1924 Cuba hurricane struck Cuba with 145-knot winds on 19 October. Of course, other compact Cat-5 landfalls likely went undetected, prior to satellite.