The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#61 Postby Shell Mound » Sat May 02, 2020 10:22 am

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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#62 Postby wayne1701 » Sun May 03, 2020 5:29 am

Texas or Florida is a safe bet. Fort Lauderdale near or north of Miami. Texas: Anywhere along the coast. Galveston area.
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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#63 Postby Shell Mound » Fri May 22, 2020 12:28 am

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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#64 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:44 am

Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).
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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:13 am

Shell Mound wrote:Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).


:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#66 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:33 am

Shell Mound wrote:Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).

I was pretty skeptical of a Cat 4+ MDR long-tracker in the likes of Irma/Luis/Isabel/Ike, but with a +AMO now occurring alongside the enhanced MDR moisture that the models have been predicting for several months, I also agree that one seems rather likely for this season. A low-rider Cat 5 like Ivan, Dean, or Felix is also a possibility since the Caribbean won’t be a TC meat grinder this year.

The name I’m really worried about this year is Hanna. All past versions have been weak (Cat 1 at most), it’s been around for several seasons, it will likely be used in this year’s peak, and it should’ve been retired in a past season. All of these were reasons I was concerned about Matthew ‘16, although it hasn’t been around as long and its case for retirement in 2010 isn’t as strong as Hanna ‘08.
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Re: The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

#67 Postby FireRat » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:33 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).


Yep, I can see this being a plausible worst-case scenario for 2020 with indicators continuing to paint a very suspenseful and grim picture of what may be to come this season. This is basically in line with my own thoughts as well. If we were to have all these things happening during the same year, 1780 sounds like a close analog year.
1780...
Aug - Major Louisiana Hurricane, possibly Cat 4.
Oct - Savanna La Mar Hurricane strikes Jamaica on a northward track, possibly Cat 5.
Oct - Hurricane San Calixto, ravages Leewards, and Puerto Rico on a wnw track before going out to sea. Likely a Cat 5 landfall in many locales. Irma and Maria combined is probably the closest thing in recent times comparable to what that monster did in that region, and it was likely much stronger.
Oct - Solano's Hurricane, possibly a major, tracked close or over western Cuba on a track into the eastern GOM, probably struck FL, but with few inhabitants there we won't know for sure.

1780 also had other significant storms throughout the tropical Atlantic, and I believe there were 8 known significant impactful tropical cyclones that season, which when adjusted for 'inflation' to compare to these days with our technology and ability to detect all storm systems, the year 1780 probably was hyperactive as well. 1780 had tracks and intensities similar to your out-on-a-limb thoughts, with the exception of the South FL and Texas landfall. Your thoughts may sound nuts in any other year, but I guess in 2020 anything is possible. :eek:

My own gut feeling tells me we could see a 2008/2017/1780 combination, which would be insanely catastrophic, and yeah South FL would also be in play.

All I can say, is that I hope we're all wrong about this year.
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