2018 CPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

2018 CPAC Season

#1 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 11, 2018 2:32 pm

I think this thread will be needed as all indicators point to an above-average CPAC season. So unfortunately, Hawaii will likely be under the gun. That's going to make it 4 out of the 5 past seasons (2014, 2015, 2016, and likely 2018) that Hawaii will be threatened.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 11, 2018 2:35 pm

There's been a lot of tweets from experts in regards to the higher threat to Hawaii this year. So post any that you see.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/994902890165735424


1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 11, 2018 5:34 pm

I don't agree with all of the hype the basin is getting, which is at levels I haven't seen in my years tracking the basin but they're dead right on the Hawaii threat. An El Nino could cut off the door from approaching the state from the east but the era of cold water east of Hawaii is over.
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 12, 2018 7:37 pm

1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 12, 2018 9:14 pm

We're probably a generation or two away from Hawaii being at a similar hurricane risk to say the south Pacific and Guam tbh. Fortunately though there's some chance that they will likely still fall apart once it gets very close to it due to topography
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 13, 2018 4:34 pm

1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 23, 2018 3:53 pm

NOAA releases CPAC outlook: Near or above normal season.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... al-pacific
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:44 pm

We have Invest 90C. No development expected.
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Tue Jun 19 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An area of thunderstorms has developed about 750 miles south of the
main Hawaiian Islands. The disturbance may persist for a
Conditions days, but conditions in the upper atmosphere are not
very favorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Donaldson/Kino
1 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:46 pm

Since late May/early June, SST's surrounding Hawaii to the south and west have been warm enough. Through July, waters east of the islands are sufficiently warm enough to keep an EPAC long tracker strong rounding the STR and allow a threat to the islands from the east through July. Going into August-September-October, waters to the east of Hawaii will allow any potential EPAC long tracker to strengthen upon entry into the CPAC.

Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:39 pm

Minmal EPS support but, 18z GFS has a well defined disturbance moving into the CPAC next week, something to keep an eye on:

Image

00z Euro:
Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:04 am

Potential Double trouble on the 00z Euro:

Image

Hope the STR stays put.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:25 pm

The moisture and instability are expected to taper off by early next week, so we expect a bit of respite from the wet weather pattern on Monday and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday the forecast models show a low-level disturbance moving westward just south of the state, with an area of enhanced tropical moisture passing near the Big Island, and potentially being pushed onshore by the trades. This implies that another increase in rainfall may occur around the middle of next week, especially over parts of the windward and southern Big Island, and possibly portions of windward Maui.

-CPHC

Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#13 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:21 am

Indeed the CPAC will see some increased activity over the next couple of weeks but of mostly weak systems especially the further north they track as a wall of shear has been more permanent than not across the Hawaiian Islands.
The GFS has been erroneously forecasting the TUTT to move north of the Hawaiian Islands.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:25 pm

NDG wrote:Indeed the CPAC will see some increased activity over the next couple of weeks but of mostly weak systems especially the further north they track as a wall of shear has been more permanent than not across the Hawaiian Islands.
The GFS has been erroneously forecasting the TUTT to move north of the Hawaiian Islands.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/qXs9LLf.gif[img]


Yeah it sure is there every year.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:06 pm

Kingarabian,in your neck of the woods.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:05 pm

And the 12z Euro gets stronger.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:12 pm

Cycloneye

Hope that TUTT stays put.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#18 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:43 pm

Euro's 200mb wind forecast by day 10 shows the TUTT moving north of the Hawaiian Islands. Something to keep an eye on if there's a threat coming from the east or south east.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#19 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:20 am

While waters near Hawaii have warmed significantly in recent decades (and particularly since the +PDO/+PMM onset), shear has arguably increased to offset other conducive conditions. While not a yearly occurrence, more hurricanes seemed to affect Hawaii prior to the mid-1990s, including Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), and Iniki (1992). Since then, the frequency and intensity of landfalls seem to have dropped off rather significantly, despite SSTs' having become notably more favourable for impacts. This goes to show that SSTs are but one factor. In fact, the very factors that increase SSTs may also contribute to enhanced vertical wind shear (and other hostile conditions).
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 CPAC Season

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:02 pm

Subtropical ridge holding well.

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: pepecool20, Stormybajan and 71 guests