Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

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psyclone
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#121 Postby psyclone » Mon May 14, 2018 6:25 pm

It's a tall order to get a rainy day with sub 80 highs around here in mid May.. a rare treat. the rain has let up and it is amazing how quickly the dry ground slurps up the excess.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#122 Postby NDG » Mon May 14, 2018 7:50 pm

psyclone wrote:It's a tall order to get a rainy day with sub 80 highs around here in mid May.. a rare treat. the rain has let up and it is amazing how quickly the dry ground slurps up the excess.


What's even more rare is coastal SSTs only in the mid to upper 70s along the west coast from Naples to Clearwater Beach for mid May, that is unheard of. I just hope that when we go there for Memorial weekend temps are at least 80 F which it will still be too cold for my wife :lol:
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#123 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 14, 2018 8:45 pm

Tremendous amount of dry air rotating into the low from the south and west. I don't think much will come of this except for some beneficial rain.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#124 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 14, 2018 10:13 pm

Looking like this is just going to be a rainmaker. Models have really backed off any development. I imagine recon will get canceled tomorrow, and this may never even be Invest 90L.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#125 Postby Dylan » Mon May 14, 2018 10:46 pm

The broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico looks terrible this evening. Complete lack of deep convection. Maybe the diurnal maxima will aid it tomorrow morning, but it will take more than that for it to become anything remotely respectable.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#126 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon May 14, 2018 11:13 pm

Looks like the low level swirl I was following this afternoon has now started to move NNW in the Shortwave IR imagery late this evening. Lots of low to mid level dry air over much of the area where the low is at IMO. Not much gonna happen in near term. Nice convection firing just south of NW FL.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#127 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 14, 2018 11:20 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:Looks like the low level swirl I was following this afternoon has now started to move NNW in the Shortwave IR imagery late this evening. Lots of low to mid level dry air over much of the area where the low is at IMO. Not much gonna happen in near term. Nice convection firing just south of NW FL.


Yeah low level circ looks like it is being pulled up to that convection after it completed the cyclonic loop today. could see a reformation/new circ develop under that convection.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#128 Postby bamajammer4eva » Tue May 15, 2018 12:08 am

If you notice, the models that semi-develop this seem to jump the lowest pressure around randomly like maybe this actually stays a broad mess of low pressure that spits out little naked swirls at random and it never really becomes anything
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#129 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 15, 2018 7:13 am

Down to 10%.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern
Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are
becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation. This system, however, will continue to produce locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days
while the low moves generally northward. For more information on
this system, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#130 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue May 15, 2018 8:27 am

Wow down to 10% each day it's looking less likely we get an invest let alone a TC from this mess.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#131 Postby OuterBanker » Tue May 15, 2018 9:43 am

Ain't gonna happen with all that dry air intrusion. Looks like Fl cleared up with all the weather moving off the east coast.
Can't see anything indicating it but if the energy shifted to off the east coast of Fl it would stand a chance.
Can't get over how much I'm enjoying the new GOES sat site. Case in point, how beautifully the Goes Band 10 show the WV loop and why this didn't develop.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/G ... &length=24
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#132 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 15, 2018 9:51 am

Next...

Image
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#133 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 15, 2018 9:58 am


I have a feeling we will be seeing a lot of this throughout the season! :lol:
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#134 Postby psyclone » Tue May 15, 2018 11:13 am

It's too soon and the water is too cold.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#135 Postby northjaxpro » Tue May 15, 2018 11:46 am

Ahh the first Bones sighting of 2018 lol..Yeah, now I feel like hurricane season is upon us.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#136 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue May 15, 2018 11:50 am

Dead just like Chris Brown's career.
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#137 Postby floridasun78 » Tue May 15, 2018 12:02 pm

this what i expect in may we dont see that many system in may or june
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#138 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue May 15, 2018 12:31 pm

nice storm firing over center in last hour or two. One last chance!! Clearly the main coc now. Be curious to see if it gets invest tag now. Clear surface low is now visible.
Image
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#139 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 15, 2018 12:49 pm

:uarrow: lots of dry air nearby

Image
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Re: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#140 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2018 7:29 am

For the record,this will be the last STWO for this area.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, western Cuba and
a good portion of the Bahamas. This system is forecast to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure, and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated. This is the last Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system, but additional information will be
included in products issued by your local weather office. Routine
Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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