Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

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Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2018 9:24 am

Let's have a thread about what the models are showing for early next week in GOM.You can post model runs here instead of the models thread. There is a good chance that NHC issues a STWO this weekend.

00z ECMWF

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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2018 9:46 am

@BigJoeBastardi
I have concern about subtropical development in the northeast part of the golf of Mexico early next week. Nontropical in origin but may try to convert

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/995313294834618370


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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#3 Postby tailgater » Sat May 12, 2018 10:44 am

Shear, as stated is pretty strong, it might get a bit better as it approaches the northern Fla. coast. Hoping it slings a little rain towards SE La.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#4 Postby psyclone » Sat May 12, 2018 11:20 am

big time beneficial rains are on the way for Florida and much of the southeast. this disturbance is likely to be a net positive for many. For parts of florida it may help to usher in the rainy season a bit early. at the very least it should bridge the gap and crush the wildfire season.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2018 11:54 am

From NHC discussion:

High pressure over the northern waters will lift northward this
weekend as a surface trough develops over the SE Gulf. Low
pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Sun and
slowly move NW toward the Florida Panhandle. This system will make
landfall Tue night and then head into the SE United States.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E
of the low until it makes landfall.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2018 12:04 pm

The main threat from this area will be the copious rain that will fall especially in the Florida Peninsula.

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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#7 Postby Noles2016 » Sat May 12, 2018 12:42 pm

Hoping for some much needed rain in the Panhandle.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#8 Postby gatorcane » Sat May 12, 2018 12:47 pm

:uarrow: Due to the west shear look how the heaviest rainfall is well east of where the low forms in the NE GOM. Looks like the east coast of Florida will get more rain than the west coast closer to the low with the heaviest rain perhaps setting up over the Gulf Stream east of Florida. Also if a surface low forms, there could be some dry air that wraps in from the north which could push dry slots of no rain and maybe even some breaks in the cloud cover at times into the peninsula.
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2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#9 Postby Dylan » Sat May 12, 2018 12:52 pm

I'd like to add to NDG's post, by mentioning that several of the EPS ensemble members are showing a similar scenario as the operational ECMWF. Lets see if the 12z continues to build on it's momentum.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2018 12:58 pm

Dylan wrote:
NDG wrote:Euro now more aggressive than the GFS with a possible weak hybrid system developing in the eastern GOM early next week.

https://i.imgur.com/tuqDwKD.png


I'd like to add to NDG's post, by mentioning that several of the EPS ensemble members are showing a similar scenario as the operational ECMWF. Lets see if the 12z continues to build on it's momentum.


Moved above post from the model thread to here.Quote from NDG is from that models thread.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 12, 2018 1:28 pm

12z Euro not very bullish.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 12, 2018 3:28 pm

I think there's an 80-90% chance (maybe higher) that a low pressure area will form in the NE Gulf early next week. Whether or not the NHC will mess with it is the big question. Either way, this won't have any potential to become a strong TS or hurricane. It's just a rain "threat". Not much of a threat if you need the rain.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#13 Postby Nimbus » Sat May 12, 2018 6:58 pm

I was looking at the visible imagery to see how far south the convection was going to build along that frontal zone.

Noticed a little twist in the clouds mid gulf at the latitude of Key West. that might anchor the moisture plume.
There is more energy dropping south into the gulf near Louisiana so could be some local areas of low surface pressure later in the week.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#14 Postby USTropics » Sun May 13, 2018 12:14 am

Jeff Master's thoughts on the NE GOM disturbance:

An upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico is worth watching early in the week
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but we could see a tropical or subtropical depression form in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. An upper-level trough of low pressure currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will move east and become a closed-off upper-level low pressure system that will stall out over the eastern Gulf over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to much of Florida. As this low meanders over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday through Wednesday, the low has the potential to gradually acquire tropical characteristics and become warm-cored, potentially transforming into a tropical or subtropical depression. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) off the coast of the Florida Panhandle are near 25°C (77°F)—a little cooler than is typically needed to see a tropical depression form, but plenty warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression.

The Friday morning operational runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the European, GFS and UKMET models—did not predict that a tropical or subtropical cyclone would form in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. However, there was some support for this idea from the 0Z Friday ensemble runs of the GFS and European models, according to a custom forecast tool supplied to WU by cfanclimate.com. About 20% of the 50 members of the European model predicted that a tropical or subtropical depression could form by Wednesday in the Gulf, as did more than 50% of the 20 members of the GFS model. The National Hurricane Center was not giving this system any odds of development on Friday morning in their Tropical Weather Outlook, but I give this system 5-day odds of development of 10%.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#15 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun May 13, 2018 2:42 am

Looks like the former gom area of convection has propagated along its own outflow boundaries southward and initiated new convection over the nw Caribbean. The trough is moving across Florida from the Bahamas and will interact with the area of nw Caribbean convection (which itself is driven by upper level divergence on the SE periphery of the upper level low). Now is the real test to see if something can get going before a trough diving into the SE moves the conglomeration NOrth and northeastward into the gulf coast states by Wednesday. 3 days time- watch those shear tendencies.

-Navin Singh (posting my real name here because I’m on multiple weather forums using that name so my post does not appear plagiarized)
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#16 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun May 13, 2018 4:05 am

Latest ensemble runs of GFS and ECMWF mean continue to show weak low pressure developing in the gulf. Wet times ahead

GEFS
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EPS
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#17 Postby wxman57 » Sun May 13, 2018 7:59 am

I'd say that chances of this weak low being classified as a depression or subtropical depression are diminishing. If the NHC isn't mentioning it today, then they aren't likely to do anything with it. It has little chance of being more than a rain event, and the Gulf Coast could use a bit of rain.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#18 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun May 13, 2018 10:51 am

If this was about a month later a low forming in the Northern Gulf would be a big concern but SST's are marginal at best and upper level winds not friendly. This is just what we need here in the Panhandle, a good soaking rain with no major beach erosion.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#19 Postby NDG » Sun May 13, 2018 11:08 am

A weak broad low pressure has formed over the FL Straights. Lots of rains over the Keys this morning heading towards the Peninsula.

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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low?

#20 Postby tropicwatch » Sun May 13, 2018 11:13 am

850mb vorticity also starting to increase.

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