Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS has a bit more consolidation of vorticity this run through 12 hours compared to it's previous runs, similar to the 12z run of the ECMWF at the same time frame:

00z GFS:


12z ECMWF:

2.91 so far, rain was slow to get going as the mid level was very stubborn and didn't precip start until yesterday afternoon, have rotation in the everglades this morning palm beach county//looking for 6 by friday here, today not looking as wet but maybe we can get some breaks to destabilize more than expected

[northjaxpro]

2.a.m. TWD from NHC has position of broad 1012 mb surface Low near 24N and 85.5W in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

[BobHarlem]

This system is spinning up some Tornadoes in Palm Beach county this morning, and drifting a bit north into Martin county also so it wouldn't surprise me for more of Florida to see the short lived tornadoes common to these types of storms.

[NDG]

Yeah, I've been watching some of those cells come onshore showing rotation this morning.

[TheStormExpert]

Overnight Euro run came in weak again but these tornado warned cells here in Palm Beach and Martin counties are a reminder that whether it gets classified or not the effects will be the same.

[Nimbus]

Radar echoes show some vorticity centered off the west coast near Ft Myers but that is over 20,000 feet. Buoy 42003 is showing surface pressures near 1012.5 with background near pressure of 1015.

My 1 km visual imagery is stuck on January 8th, anyone have a gulf link that updates?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/995987081762664448

[crownweather]

Radar echoes show some vorticity centered off the west coast near Ft Myers but that is over 20,000 feet. Buoy 42003 is showing surface pressures near 1012.5 with background near pressure of 1015.

My 1 km visual imagery is stuck on January 8th, anyone have a gulf link that updates?

NOAA/NESDIS is the "replacement" for SSD satellite imagery. Link: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php. They currently do have a "floater" on the Gulf system at https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_MESO.php?lat=26N&lon=85W.

Another site that I've used a lot for satellite imagery lately is Weathernerds. Link is http://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/.

[chaser1]

Radar echoes show some vorticity centered off the west coast near Ft Myers but that is over 20,000 feet. Buoy 42003 is showing surface pressures near 1012.5 with background near pressure of 1015.

My 1 km visual imagery is stuck on January 8th, anyone have a gulf link that updates?

NOAA/NESDIS is the "replacement" for SSD satellite imagery. Link: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php. They currently do have a "floater" on the Gulf system at https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_MESO.php?lat=26N&lon=85W.

Another site that I've used a lot for satellite imagery lately is Weathernerds. Link is http://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/.

Hey Rob, I like that site link from WeatherNerds! One I've used quite a bit is the Nasa site (https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/). It's a .5KM that's interactive, and I find it the fastest to update. Was showing latest image at 13:52 while other sites were at 13:30 or earlier (not that a few minutes really matter that much lol).

[Dean4Storms]

Like this one as well for sat. imagery.....http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

[cycloneye]

For the record as it was not posted.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days. For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[tropicwatch]

I like the geo true color. The circulation is definitely more evident this morning.

[OuterBanker]

Typical amorphous early season right weighted storm. No worries except for the rain. If this had formed off the Fl east coast the sun would shine everywhere. But, unfortunately it looks to track up the Appalachians which means everything east of the mountains this week will get soaked. Of concern will be the pattern. It looks like we will have a prolonged wet period here in the southeast.
Of lighter fare is the GFS 360. The horrorcane (written by Wes Creaven and Stephen Speilberg) is still there. And still at 360 three days later, it must have entered some kind of time warp. Great fun for wishcasters.

[Sanibel]

Cloudy here and raining...3rd day in a row like something is forming...

[tropicwatch]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 14 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z MAY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NE GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 15/1800Z A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 15/1600Z C. 16/0900Z
D. 28.0N 85.0W D. 29.0N 87.0W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2200Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT, RESOURCES PERMITTING.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[cycloneye]

@pppapin
15z 14 May update: Radar suggests a new llvl vortex may be developing from the overnight convection offshore Tampa. In the meantime, plenty of heavy rainfall over #Florida today associated w/ the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/996052434110709760

[psyclone]

I was out at the beach yesterday (Clearwater area) and one thing I noticed is just how cool the water felt..certainly a change from recent years. we are usually 80 or so by mid May. I checked some obs when I got home and sure enough we're lagging at this point with upper 70's...even a 75 reading at Venice....even the Keys were still under 80. This is likely the benefit of a nice Spring with breezy, low dewpoint weather.

[cycloneye]

Moved to this forum as it will be part of the Invest 90L threads.

[cycloneye]

panamatropicwatch,moved the recon thread to Active Storms forum as it will be part of the 90L threads.

[gatorcane]

CMC coming in more bullish down to 1000MB before landfall: