Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

[Alyono]

CMC coming in more bullish down to 1000MB before landfall:

that's the Caribbean system, not our current system

[Aric Dunn]

@pppapin
15z 14 May update: Radar suggests a new llvl vortex may be developing from the overnight convection offshore Tampa. In the meantime, plenty of heavy rainfall over #Florida today associated w/ the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/996052434110709760[/twet]

I been watching that same mid level fearture fire convection couple times over night as it is rotating around the larger Gyre. very likely will work down to the surface at some point today if the convection continues.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is dropping fast as the upper trough shifts and weakens. looking like it has a small but very doable window in thenext 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

Note= This thread will remain open until Invest 90L is up so the peeps can continue to discuss about this area of interest again until the invest is up

[NotSparta]

I'm surprised it hasn't been designated yet

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/996059335456448514

[tolakram]

COD floater: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

[Aric Dunn]

pretty clear we are seeing a low level vort/circ taking shape in association with that midlevel circ on radar and say.. there some curve low level clouds on the south side flowing into that area. may have some ssw winds. not closed off yet but some more convection and I would not be surprised to see chances go up this evening.

[northjaxpro]

The mid level circulation west of Tampa Bay really looks good at this time. I also would not be surprised to see this area reflected at the surface and become the main Low center.

[wxman57]

Low-level circulation is reforming NE of this morning's position near 26N/83.6W. Winds across the NE Gulf remain light - 10-12 kts. Surface pressure is relatively high (1012-1013mb). Don't think we'll get much more than a weak low that could be classified as a TD or STD out of this. Not much wind, and not much rain.

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro coming in much weaker.

[LarryWx]

Spaghetti models for "Invest 90L":

http://www.brevardtimes.com/2018/05/lat ... ti-models/

Is this not yet Invest 90L? This article from 10-11 AM EDT refers to it as that.
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Edit: From here: http://www.brevardtimes.com/2018/05/nat ... f-florida/

"The system, dubbed Invest 90L, is a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low that is producing a large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula."

[Steve]

Low-level circulation is reforming NE of this morning's position near 26N/83.6W. Winds across the NE Gulf remain light - 10-12 kts. Surface pressure is relatively high (1012-1013mb). Don't think we'll get much more than a weak low that could be classified as a TD or STD out of this. Not much wind, and not much rain.

Rain looks like a given though. Just offshore of Key West, there are some 10" totals coming in for the last 36 hours on the radar estimates. It's mostly in the 5ish inch range, and there are no special hazards/warnings on the Peninsula or islands beyond the marine warnings. But I'd bet there will be some 8-10"+ amounts over the next few days.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no

[Aric Dunn]

Congrats everyone.. we have our first exposed weak low/vort of the season.. lol ..been cloud tracking and there are some clear ESE moving low level clouds seen in visible left over from that earlier mid level vort working down that has now been sheared off.. so from here all that is needed is convection to develop with it and off we go to a sub trop/TS..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Aric Dunn]

with that closed feature poking out now.. invest is likely coming very soon..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Aric Dunn]

if anyone was unsure or doubting..

[Aric Dunn]

It is doing a large cyclonic loop as the overall larger gyre consolidates.. convection will likely start to develop shortly as this feature "rounds the turn"... if convection builds.. well then chances will likely go up to 60 to 70 later.

[robbielyn]

It is doing a large cyclonic loop as the overall larger gyre consolidates.. convection will likely start to develop shortly as this feature "rounds the turn"... if convection builds.. well then chances will likely go up to 60 to 70 later.

This is exciting. If we get a TS, it will be the earliest TS in the GOM. Ahmaazing!

[jlauderdal]

Low-level circulation is reforming NE of this morning's position near 26N/83.6W. Winds across the NE Gulf remain light - 10-12 kts. Surface pressure is relatively high (1012-1013mb). Don't think we'll get much more than a weak low that could be classified as a TD or STD out of this. Not much wind, and not much rain.

Rain looks like a given though. Just offshore of Key West, there are some 10" totals coming in for the last 36 hours on the radar estimates. It's mostly in the 5ish inch range, and there are no special hazards/warnings on the Peninsula or islands beyond the marine warnings. But I'd bet there will be some 8-10"+ amounts over the next few days.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no

3.99 event total at the house, going to be tough to generate anything additional the rest of today, dense overcast and the atmosphere is worked over

[Aric Dunn]

main factor for this will be the barely warm enough sst's... the strong upper divergence/baroclinic forcing may help offset that somewhat..