Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

[ronjon]

So far the low pressure still at mid-to-upper levels. Euro develops the low off the SW coast of FL by tomorrow morning then slowly drifts it NW. It actually gets shunted back southward into the GOM from 48-72 hrs before it heads NE into big bend of FL. Both new GFS and Euro develop 1003 mb tropical storm by 72 hrs.

[Kazmit]

Shear is way too strong though, is it not?

It looks like there's an area of decreasing shear near it.

[KatDaddy]

19 days until the official start of the 2018 Hurricane Season. The GFS model was showing different scenarios of tropical development last week. Now the SE GOM disturbance not yet an Invest but is being mentioned by the NHC this afternoon with a 40% chance of tropical development the next 5 days………and so it begins. A reminder that now is the time to be prepared for the upcoming season.

[USTropics]

Visually, convection has improved since last night. Doesn't appear to be very organized at the surface right now, though.



Wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor, with a constant displacement of convection to the E/ENE over Florida. We'll most likely see a system that struggles to maintain any sort of cloud coverage over an LLC, if one does develop:



You can see in the higher resolution SST images that the Loop Current does extend far enough north to support marginal temperatures for further organization.

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis.

[LarryWx]

If this were to be named this week, it would become the earliest in the season G.O.M. TC or STS on record for a Gulf genesis.

#1 of 1933 was a W. Caribbean genesis that reached the Gulf as a TS late on 5/15:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[NDG]

These early weak hybrid systems this time of the year have become almost the norm every year.

[robbielyn]

So far the low pressure still at mid-to-upper levels. Euro develops the low off the SW coast of FL by tomorrow morning then slowly drifts it NW. It actually gets shunted back southward into the GOM from 48-72 hrs before it heads NE into big bend of FL. Both new GFS and Euro develop 1003 mb tropical storm by 72 hrs.

i zoomed in possible landfall. Mexico beach area, well west of the big bend.

[pcolaman]

And so it begins

[wxman57]

I don't think that there was ever any thinking that a low wasn't going to develop in the Gulf early this week. The big question was whether the NHC would consider calling it a TD or STD before it moves ashore. Now that the folks at the NHC are back from their hurricane preparedness tour, it looks like they are thinking of upgrading the low on Tue or Wed. With moderate shear and coolish SSTs, this will only be a rain maker - for areas that need rain. Little chance of any wind impact.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good early-season warmup. Helps me get all my model links back together.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest Gusts according to 3k NAM

[SEASON_CANCELED]

NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..

[NotSparta]

NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..

NAM always overdoes TCs, don't look at it as it's not meant for tropical systems

[Sciencerocks]

NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..

NAM always overdoes TCs, don't look at it as it's not meant for tropical systems

Did ok with Harvey. Of course this isn't typical so it is always a wait and see as the environment will be unfavorable but a 45-50 knot tropical storm like Arlene or Alberto is possible.

[Alyono]

NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..

NAM only drops it to 1000mb or so. It's not that unreasonable

[Dylan]

These early weak hybrid systems this time of the year have become almost the norm every year.

What’s unusual is that it’s in the Gulf of Mexico. It feels like these pre-season hybrid systems usually happen on the Atlantic side of Florida, and off the Carolinas. Looking at the data, the more aggressive solutions of the ECM & NAM don’t seem out of the realm of possibilities.

[USTropics]

00z GFS has a bit more consolidation of vorticity this run through 12 hours compared to it's previous runs, similar to the 12z run of the ECMWF at the same time frame:

00z GFS:


12z ECMWF:

[USTropics]

There's a bit more organization from the 00z GFS run, but a similar outcome to previous runs (doesn't move as far north as the ECMWF solution, thus remains over the NE GOM). The vorticity becomes elongated and the system appears to be transitioning to frontal after 72 hours:



Rain will remain plentiful over Florida, especially enhanced convergence along the east coast of FL:

[Aric Dunn]

it is always fun watching cyclogenesis on radar.. the sheared environment makes it that much more interesting.