Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

[CyclonicFury]

New STWO lowers chances to 20/30
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141945
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern
Georgia. Although this system could still acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has
not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT
on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Likely the mission will be canceled looking at what is going on. Also,no invest may be up.

[cycloneye]

We may not get the invest after all.

[Aric Dunn]

they said no signs of orginization ? well lets see we went from broad trough to a clear closed/vort that has grown larger throughout the day.. would not quite say there has been no change lol

[psyclone]

Invest or not we are getting a boatload of much needed rain here. it is wonderful and it keeps reloading.

[MGC]

Indeed, chances are slim a TC develops. Lots of dry continental air is being introduced into the weak circulation limiting convection near the circulation center, shear is a factor against development also. At least Florida is getting some rain. Bone dry here on the Mississippi Coast with Gulfport reporting 97 degrees with 32% RH.....MGC

[Dylan]

they said no signs of orginization ? well lets see we went from broad trough to a clear closed/vort that has grown larger throughout the day.. would not quite say there has been no change lol

You can spin it however you want, but this still has a long way to go before becoming a tropical cyclone. Winds are light, pressures are high, theres a lack of persistent deep convection, and there isn't a well defined surface circulation. Before that can even happen it needs to shake off it's non-tropical characteristics, which takes a lot of time.

[wxman57]

if anyone was unsure or doubting..

https://image.ibb.co/dnjuAd/GOES18322018134yi_KKc_P.jpg

Very small eddy rotating southwestward.

[Aric Dunn]

if anyone was unsure or doubting..

https://image.ibb.co/dnjuAd/GOES18322018134yi_KKc_P.jpg

Very small eddy rotating southwestward.

yeppers as previously mentioned..

[Steve]

Indeed, chances are slim a TC develops. Lots of dry continental air is being introduced into the weak circulation limiting convection near the circulation center, shear is a factor against development also. At least Florida is getting some rain. Bone dry here on the Mississippi Coast with Gulfport reporting 97 degrees with 32% RH.....MGC

We were over there this weekend, and while hot, it was really nice at night with the lower humidity. There is a band setting up SW/NE that just brought in a marine warning for Mobile Bay, so you might see something come through today.

Otherwise, I'd disagree about shear being a factor against development. It's pretty critical that it's there for the early/late season homespun/hybrid systems, because that's the nature of what they usually are and how/where they usually form. Having said that, I don't know if anything will or won't form. It's mid-May, and while we have had some May storms in some of the recent oncoming El Nino years, a better bet is just an unclassified circulation.

[TheStormExpert]

In summary, it's a mess! I'd give development chances 10% AT BEST.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/996129446259232768

[stormhunter7]

I can clearly see a low level swirl in visible hi-res satellite. This one is moving ssw. Must of been shot out of the broad low.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Getting POUNDED with rain here in Lutz Florida. Flooding out. Starting to get concerned. Yard is a lake

[jlauderdal]

Low-level circulation is reforming NE of this morning's position near 26N/83.6W. Winds across the NE Gulf remain light - 10-12 kts. Surface pressure is relatively high (1012-1013mb). Don't think we'll get much more than a weak low that could be classified as a TD or STD out of this. Not much wind, and not much rain.

Rain looks like a given though. Just offshore of Key West, there are some 10" totals coming in for the last 36 hours on the radar estimates. It's mostly in the 5ish inch range, and there are no special hazards/warnings on the Peninsula or islands beyond the marine warnings. But I'd bet there will be some 8-10"+ amounts over the next few days.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no

3.99 event total at the house, going to be tough to generate anything additional the rest of today, dense overcast and the atmosphere is worked over

i spoke too soon, storms rolling through but wont make it this far east to add rain totals at my place

[caneman]

Saw quite a few flooded roads and parking lots in Clearwater today

[TheAustinMan]

Broader evening look at the overall disturbance. Lots of messy convection about the eastern and northern flank with nice outflow, though the main circulation remains exposed.

201 KB. Data comes from NASA MSFC, but the color enhancement was done myself by mapping visible and longwave IR data to RGB color channels.

[Jag95]

Indeed, chances are slim a TC develops. Lots of dry continental air is being introduced into the weak circulation limiting convection near the circulation center, shear is a factor against development also. At least Florida is getting some rain. Bone dry here on the Mississippi Coast with Gulfport reporting 97 degrees with 32% RH.....MGC

It all died off yesterday before it got here, but it looks like it's going to make it this afternoon. Finally starting to get a much needed light rain here with some slightly heavier stuff moving in just to the east. A friend told me he just got some pea sized hail just across the bay.

[stormhunter7]

Shocked we didn't get an invest as of yet, and the next STWO will not be issued until tomorrow morning. Looking at GOES 16 data, lots of low to mid level dry air about to be brought into and over system. Almost looks like an we ULL is almost stacked vertically over this low swirl we see in visible satellite. Lots of dry air to the west of system. Looks like a heavy rain maker for sure for Florida.

[MGC]

Indeed, chances are slim a TC develops. Lots of dry continental air is being introduced into the weak circulation limiting convection near the circulation center, shear is a factor against development also. At least Florida is getting some rain. Bone dry here on the Mississippi Coast with Gulfport reporting 97 degrees with 32% RH.....MGC

It all died off yesterday before it got here, but it looks like it's going to make it this afternoon. Finally starting to get a much needed light rain here with some slightly heavier stuff moving in just to the east. A friend told me he just got some pea sized hail just across the bay.

A band of convection made it to the Mobile area and cooled it off quite a bit. A outflow boundary is currently moving across Jackson County MS and has kicked off a couple of cells....doubt that happens for me though, I'm too far west....

The disturbance looks disorganized this afternoon. It is over the coldest water in the GOM near 25C.....MGC

[johngaltfla]

Heck, GFS usually classifies a storm like this as a Cat 4 storm.

Thankfully, not yet. But what a mess of rain we've been getting here on the West Coast of Florida. Buckle up ladies and gents, this could be one hell of a long, long season.