Could we get 2 name storms before june?

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stormlover2013
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Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#1 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 14, 2018 7:06 am

Has that ever happen before?
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 14, 2018 7:08 am

Yes it has, two times in the past 6 years. 2012, and 2016. Btw, in my opinion there's probably about a 50/50 shot of it happening again this May.
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#3 Postby Kazmit » Mon May 14, 2018 8:21 am

There's a decent chance of it happening. I think at least one of them will become a named storm.
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#4 Postby Shell Mound » Mon May 14, 2018 9:03 am

Here are all the known cases since 1851, with date of formation listed:

1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS

Seasonal ACE values:

1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129

Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2

Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT

Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.

Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#5 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 14, 2018 9:18 am

Shell Mound wrote:Here are all the known cases since 1851, with date of formation listed:

1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS

Seasonal ACE values:

1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129

Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2

Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT

Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.

Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).


Average ACE for those years is 132.75.

I can't find ENSO data for 1887 or 1908, but 1951 was followed by a weak-moderate El Nino (peak ONI was 0.9) and 2012 was a failed El Nino. It does appear that this activity is linked with at least a warm up of ENSO and at least the attempt at a Nino.
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 14, 2018 12:54 pm

27 storms have formed in May since 1851 until 2017.

Image
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Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 14, 2018 10:15 pm

I doubt we will see two named storms before June at this point, especially with the Gulf of Mexico disturbance failing to organize. We could still get Alberto this month if a gyre forms, but even that may not happen.
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