Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[CyclonicFury]

GFS is currently an eastern outlier. The ECMWF, CMC, ICON and JMA are all farther west. The GEFS ensemble mean also shifted west at 18z, so it would not surprise me if the operational GFS shifted back to the west at 00z.

[Nimbus]

Could be flood potential somewhere if there is weak steering in the northern gulf as the early model runs are predicting.
Usually if a system is not even invest worthy there isn't much consistency with the model runs.
Looks like quite a lot of shear in the more westward solution at the moment.

[Alyono]

Could be flood potential somewhere if there is weak steering in the northern gulf as the early model runs are predicting.
Usually if a system is not even invest worthy there isn't much consistency with the model runs.
Looks like quite a lot of shear in the more westward solution at the moment.

if it goes west, the system will be stronger as it will encounter the favorable conditions underneath the upper low.

GFS seems to be trying to reform the broad center near bursts of convection. Reeks of convective feedback, which is why I am tending away from the GFS solution

[Visioen]

Directly underneath an upper low is actually a fairly favorable place for tropical development as the shear is light and there are cold upper temperatures.

I'm guessing the biggest problem would be the outflow?

[blp]

I think the Western models will shift East as the GFS shifts West and we will get a tropical storm in the Big Bend area. Just basing it mostly on the most climatologically favored solution early in the season. Ironically, I think the worst model the Navgem has the right landfall location on this one with the 18z run.

[CyclonicFury]

I think the Western models will shift East as the GFS shifts West and we will get a tropical storm in the Big Bend area. Just basing it mostly on the most climatologically favored solution early in the season. Ironically, I think the worst model the Navgem has the right landfall location on this one with the 18z run.

I agree that the Euro is too far west. It was too far west with Debby and Cindy. Would not be surprised if it also the case with this system.

[Alyono]

Directly underneath an upper low is actually a fairly favorable place for tropical development as the shear is light and there are cold upper temperatures.

I'm guessing the biggest problem would be the outflow?

and low topped convection

[kn4ds]

NWS/Atlanta (Peachtree City) has words of note in the long term AFD:

By the end of the week and into the weekend...discrepancy still
exists in regards to the development of low pressure across the
northern Gulf. While both the 00z EC and GFS show some degree of the
remnants of Georgia`s early week area of low pressure retrograding
into the Gulf and redeveloping...the EC shows a better influx of
moisture from the Caribbean. Regardless...both models continue to
depict the development of low pressure/troughing in the northern
Gulf. In addition...does not really matter whether the system
becomes tropical or not...it needs to be understood that this system
would have excellent access to deep Gulf moisture and would provide
another mechanism for moderate to heavy precip across the region.
Will need to carefully watch this system given the persistent wet
pattern leading up to its possible development.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like a GFS west switch is coming in 00z as it rolls in? More of a CGOM threat in this run??

[Dylan]

Over the past 8 runs, as of 84 hours, the GFS has trended NW with the forecasted position of the low. Slowly giving in to the Euro. Inch by inch...

GFS is remaining much slower than the Euro.

[stormhunter7]

May of just been an illusion. lol 102hrs a broad low over the tip of Belize/Mx with a piece of energy thrown north into SE GOM.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like sloppy/broad low in Yucatan Channel at 120hours on GFS 00z?

[AdamFirst]

Looking like the same thing as before. Sloppy broad low, with convection sheared to the east of the center, heading NNE towards Florida.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like previous runs... NE towards Florida. Sheared and not defined well so far. Appears suffering some type of issues with vortices) energy over Cuba that it throws north. Interesting, as there something definitely going on in these pieces of energy popping up on east side of main broad low.

[Dylan]

We are all aware of the models extensive history of having a difficult time, to put in nicely, with their handling of these large CAG’s. The GFS shows the broad low like the ECM does, but it wants to generate a more concentrated vorticity maxima on its eastern side, and send it ENE into south Florida like an October tropical system.

Let me just ask this question. Which model has the better physics to handle this type of a situation? The GFS or European?

When the GFS goes down in flames again, I won’t be surprised at all.

[stormhunter7]

Low little better defined at 150hrs. Tracking towards SW Florida, just NW of Key West.

[stormhunter7]

Then looks like it dissolved at 162hrs and going forward... Some stuff being pulled up the SE US coast. Low is not trackable over Florida at this point. Very disorganized up to 162hrs.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with wxman57 with his assessment earlier in that there is just too much shear this system will likely encounter and that EURO does not handle these shear environments well. T.S. Debby analog is a perfect reminder of EURO's problems with this environment. Climatology will eventually win out and the system will eventually move northeast toward Florida.

Eastern Gulf of Mexico solution I thnk will be likely scenario and a sloppy, lopsided system will bring a boatload of rain to Florida for days and days to come.

[stormhunter7]

We are all aware of the models extensive history of having a difficult time, to put in nicely, with their handling of these large CAG’s. The GFS shows the broad low like the ECM does, but it wants to generate a more concentrated vorticity maxima on its eastern side, and send it ENE into south Florida like an October tropical system.

Let me just ask this question. Which model has the better physics to handle this type of a situation? The GFS or European?

When the GFS goes down in flames again, I won’t be surprised at all.

Very discouraging to see just few days ago the exact opposite, and the now gone poof! While looks like a CGOM is becoming likely as a few globals hint that way in recent runs, inculding Euro.

[boca]

Something has to form down there first and than both models should be able to get the track correct, right now it’s a huge guessing game.