Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

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gatorcane
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#261 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 21, 2018 8:14 am

06Z GFS Ensemble mean favoring EGOM/Florida solution. Looks like the mean shifted back a bit east from the 00Z:

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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#262 Postby marionstorm » Mon May 21, 2018 8:18 am

I'm very worried about this storm because I have Duke Energy and it doesnt take much. :eek:
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#263 Postby Stormcenter » Mon May 21, 2018 8:25 am

I would not bet a penny on the GFS or any other model when we have nothing organized yet. IMO
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#264 Postby LarryWx » Mon May 21, 2018 8:47 am

cycloneye wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
The reason I would be surprised if no development is because a strong phase 2/3 MJO rotation like this is like throwing a match on the waters near the US for development, Been saying since early May look out late May for this. Not model magic, just lining up against knowns


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/998538770776559616




Regardless of the MJO, based on longterm late May climo and there currently being nothing well organized, nobody should be surprised if no TS were to come out of this. Keep in mind that there have been only 5 TS on record that had a genesis during 5/21-31 in the W Car/GOM in 167 years. I'm sure the MJO was favorable in many of the years that ended up with no development when we're talking about this many years of climo. I'm still at a 33% chance of TD genesis for now (which is very high for late May) and a 5% chance of a FL TS landfall (also very high for late May). I'll adjust these up or down as we move forward. There could just as easily be no more than a very broad low that never gets past the TD stage or doesn't even get classified as a TC. Or maybe there will be a TD or even a TS that never hits FL as per many of the current model runs. Or maybe there will be a TS and it weakens to below TS strength before hitting FL. So many possibilities other than a TS hit on FL.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon May 21, 2018 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#265 Postby AdamFirst » Mon May 21, 2018 9:07 am

Another thing that's concerning for me in terms of the GFS runs is that the moisture conveyor from the Caribbean seems to stay intact for several days after a potential system passes over Florida. It may not be the end of the flooding threat.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#266 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 21, 2018 9:10 am

I don't like to do model wars, but right now is a interesting day, lets see what the models show today, ICON, EURO, CMC western and GFS way to the east.........just depends where the center forms if one, But I will say this if the western solution pans out the pattern seems fit to meander around with high pressure to its east and west and even the GFS shows that.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#267 Postby boca » Mon May 21, 2018 9:22 am

Keep in mind that nothing has formed yet and the models are all over the place.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#268 Postby ROCK » Mon May 21, 2018 9:31 am

Models look messy to me...NAVGEM being showing a TS where’s the GFS is showing less organized system. When is doubt I go with the EURO which has been splitting the difference in last nights run..JMO
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#269 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 10:18 am

Northern GOM has warmed a lot in the past few days and that could aid development of anything going that way.Of course other factors come into play that could not favor development.

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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#270 Postby boca » Mon May 21, 2018 10:24 am

ROCK wrote:Models look messy to me...NAVGEM being showing a TS where’s the GFS is showing less organized system. When is doubt I go with the EURO which has been splitting the difference in last nights run..JMO


Hey Rock always good to see you on here.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Special Tropical Weather Outlook-0%-20%

#271 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 21, 2018 10:27 am

AdamFirst wrote:Another thing that's concerning for me in terms of the GFS runs is that the moisture conveyor from the Caribbean seems to stay intact for several days after a potential system passes over Florida. It may not be the end of the flooding threat.


This is whats all about more rain for Florida. An organized system is not expected.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#272 Postby Shell Mound » Mon May 21, 2018 10:28 am

Note that if an organised system (TD or stronger) were to develop in the Gulf of Mexico rather than the western Caribbean, it would be a case of development in the subtropics rather than the deep tropics. In other words, it could no longer be used as evidence that 2018 might be an active season. Anyway, given that the weakness will be in the low levels with ridging increasing farther up, this would be a case where a weaker system would head east and a stronger (that is, deeper, vertically stacked) system west. The GEFS also shows more influence from the subtropical jet than the EPS, perhaps due to convective feedback (feel free to correct me). Since the EPS usually has a better handle on convection and large-scale patterns, I would favour the EPS for its handling of the ridging and cutoff low. The EPS is stronger and farther SE (NW) with the overall ridging (cutoff low), so convection might tend to focus farther W over the Gulf, giving credence to the EPS solutions that focus on the central Gulf Coast. Anyway, the environment still looks so unfavourable for development that I would expect a drenching sub-TS.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#273 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 21, 2018 10:31 am

Funny that the GFS was the first and only model to sniff this potential TC out weeks in advance and now it’s the only model to show little to no development from it with a track solution that’s basically completely different from the rest. The GFS sure has a mind of its own! :lol:
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#274 Postby Dylan » Mon May 21, 2018 10:46 am

With a lot of people expected to be at the beach for Memorial Day weekend, the NHC is probably going to have to be very proactive with how they handle this system.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#275 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 21, 2018 10:52 am

dylan, do you think the euro could be right with how the upper level pattern is setting up?
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#276 Postby chris_fit » Mon May 21, 2018 11:03 am

12Z GFS so far coming in weaker and slightly more W with the disorganized mess...
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#277 Postby MississippiWx » Mon May 21, 2018 11:04 am

Selfishly, I hope whatever this is will come to the Northern Gulf. It hasn’t rained on my farm in South Mississippi in over a month. We have been watching thunderstorms miss us to the north, south, east, and west. No luck! :x

Meteorologically speaking, this is a cluster. :ggreen: I’m glad I’m not in the forecast chair. As Dylan alluded to, it is a huge holiday weekend for the beaches. My initial thought is that the GFS is developing the low east due to the strong shear displacing the convection towards Florida. GFS has done well with this in the past, so can’t overlook it. However, it is tough to ignore all the other models pointing to the Northern Gulf.

Anyway, fun times ahead watching this one! Fingers crossed for beneficial rains!
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#278 Postby chris_fit » Mon May 21, 2018 11:12 am

12Z GFS - Shifts a little west and a little stronger actually...

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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#279 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 21, 2018 11:16 am

The broad trough just north of Honduras has become quite a bit sharper and tilted sw to NE with some larger broad rotation over the last 24 hours. only 24 hours till the euro shows a weak closed wind field and vorticity in that same general area before moving over the Yucatan. I would imagine if the euro did not have be move over land that we would see development with the euro sooner in the NW cariib. so it needs to be watched closer this next 24 hours to see what happens with it.

oddly enough the 12z cmc seems quite reasonable today..
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#280 Postby MississippiWx » Mon May 21, 2018 11:20 am

chris_fit wrote:12Z GFS - Shifts a little west and a little stronger actually...

https://i.imgur.com/aG2LPB9.png


Looks like the new GFS has a low pinwheeling around the upper low.
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