Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Let’s hope the trend continues that this will go far enough west to spare Florida and give the NGOM the rain. I think we might have a dry weekend if the models stay this way
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txwatcher91
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
NAVGEM shifts west a little bit. It seems the most models are keying in on Pensacola to New Orleans as the potential landfall area. GFS is still the outlier right now with a track a good bit further east... although it did shift west some at 12z.
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gatorcane
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Whoa UKMET...
cycloneye wrote:Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 19.8N 86.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.05.2018 120 19.8N 86.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 27.05.2018 132 21.4N 85.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 27.05.2018 144 24.3N 85.5W 999 41
Umm,UKMET is stronger.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Any chance this could move into the upper TX coast?
gatorcane wrote:Whoa UKMET...cycloneye wrote:Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 19.8N 86.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
Any chance this could move into the upper TX coast?
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.05.2018 120 19.8N 86.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 27.05.2018 132 21.4N 85.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 27.05.2018 144 24.3N 85.5W 999 41
Umm,UKMET is stronger.
Last edited by Sambucol on Mon May 21, 2018 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NotSparta
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
gatorcane wrote:Whoa UKMET...cycloneye wrote:Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 19.8N 86.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.05.2018 120 19.8N 86.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 27.05.2018 132 21.4N 85.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 27.05.2018 144 24.3N 85.5W 999 41
Umm,UKMET is stronger.
I know UKMET is good for genesis, but how is it with intensity?
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
@BigJoeBastardi
From the MJO discussion, Have been showing this idea on the MJO since early month,!
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/998649101267996673
From the MJO discussion, Have been showing this idea on the MJO since early month,!
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/998649101267996673
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Dylan
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
The 12z EPS ensembles continue to cluster, with landfall narrowed down from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
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Dean4Storms
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Alyono wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:lol the new GFS model crazy model
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=228
The FV3 is wild... It is hard to take the model too seriously when it does things like this in May.
especially when it blows it up into a new cane OVER MISSISSIPPI and then moves it offshore
Does FV3 stand for Fantasy Version 3?
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Weatherboy1
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Howdy all (first post for the 2018 season!) -- We could sure use some time to dry out here in SE FL. So if models continue to trend a bit further west with this "mess" I'm not complaining. Of course, as others have noted, it's always tough to trust model output before you even have a trackable low/LLC!
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
HWRF made a test run (81L) at 12z.
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wxman57
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Aric Dunn wrote:
NNE ? maybe some mid to upper level moisture is being pulled/blown the to nne.. but the overall system/trough and main moisture/wave plume is heading nw to nnw..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
Yes, when the moisture reaches the 50-60 kt SW-NE jet core in the Gulf of Mexico the moisture should track with the wind, not perpendicular to it (NW). That would take it up the west coast of Florida and into Georgia. Euro is starting to play catch-up with the GFS now. "Upgraded" GFS is quite interesting. (meaning laughable)
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Dean4Storms
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
NotSparta wrote:gatorcane wrote:Whoa UKMET...cycloneye wrote:
Umm,UKMET is stronger.
I know UKMET is good for genesis, but how is it with intensity?
I cannot make it out, what does the UKMET show here at 168hr with pressure?
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Dean4Storms ,999 mbs on the final data of run.
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Dean4Storms
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
cycloneye wrote: Dean4Storms ,999 mbs on the final data of run.
Yea I saw that for 144hr but the graphic is showing it at 168hr and looks much more intense than 999mb. Just wondering if anyone had the pressure for 168hr.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
cycloneye wrote: Dean4Storms ,999 mbs on the final data of run.
I could'nt tell either but was gonna guess about 996-998mb. Cycloneye probably has it correctly however, at 999
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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DestinHurricane
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
When can we expect invest
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northjaxpro
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
DestinHurricane wrote:When can we expect invest
Sometime tomorrow at the earliest.
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jaxfladude
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
So is the Jacksonville, Florida metro at any risk from rains winds or still wait and see?
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CyclonicFury
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Now Invest 90L
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jaxfladude
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Re: RE: Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
Thread up yet?
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CyclonicFury wrote:Now Invest 90L
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