Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

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CrazyC83
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#301 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 21, 2018 12:39 pm

IF this were to develop, the best analogs I can think of are Barry 2007, Alberto 2006 and Andrea 2013. But shear may kill it off before it even happens.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#302 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 21, 2018 12:45 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).


If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...


Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#303 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 21, 2018 12:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).


If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...


Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.


NNE ? maybe some mid to upper level moisture is being pulled/blown the to nne.. but the overall system/trough and main moisture/wave plume is heading nw to nnw..



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#304 Postby Stormcenter » Mon May 21, 2018 12:55 pm

I hope you don't burned by the GFS wxman57 on this one. Like I said before I wouldn't hedge on any model when something is not even yet organized. IMO


wxman57 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).


If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...


Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#305 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 21, 2018 12:56 pm

Looks like the NAVGEM shifted west now has it just offshore Alabama/Miss at 156 hours at 993MB
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#306 Postby Visioen » Mon May 21, 2018 1:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:also here is the EUro .. almost all the parameters you would want.. in high def lol

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/gr ... 300mb.html

It wasn't me who asked, but thank you so much!

MississippiWx wrote:I don’t have access to Euro 850 vort maps

You can find these on tropicaltidbits also: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 52112&fh=0
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#307 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 21, 2018 1:07 pm

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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#308 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon May 21, 2018 1:11 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lol the new GFS model crazy model

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=228

The FV3 is wild... It is hard to take the model too seriously when it does things like this in May.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#309 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 21, 2018 1:15 pm

Euro coming in with an even less of an interaction with that system over the northern gulf coast. looks much more reasonable given the current position and organization of the system than the GFS with the crazy erratic motion.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#310 Postby Alyono » Mon May 21, 2018 1:16 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:lol the new GFS model crazy model

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=228

The FV3 is wild... It is hard to take the model too seriously when it does things like this in May.


especially when it blows it up into a new cane OVER MISSISSIPPI and then moves it offshore
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#311 Postby gatorcane » Mon May 21, 2018 1:22 pm

12Z ECMWF shifts east some looks to be headed for NOLA at 1001MB.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#312 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 1:22 pm

12z ECMWF at 120 hours.

Image
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#313 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 1:30 pm

At 144 hours well inland.

Image
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#314 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 1:40 pm

72 hour TAFB surface forecast:

Image
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#315 Postby Dylan » Mon May 21, 2018 1:47 pm

12z European is much quicker, with a landfall near the mouth of the river, through extreme eastern St. Bernard, and into Slidell on Saturday evening as a 45-50 knot tropical storm.

Classic windshield wiper effect that we always see with tropical systems.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#316 Postby Sambucol » Mon May 21, 2018 1:56 pm

Is that a bit more west for landfall than previous runs, Dylan?
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest

#317 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon May 21, 2018 1:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).


If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...


Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.


I agree, most of these "upgrades" to the models in recent years haven't improved things and the FV3 GFS is crazy for TC genesis/intensity as I alluded to in my post (12z run proves this even more). My point is simply that with the upgrades/changes to models in recent years we can't really know how they will handle this high shear environment since we only have 1-2 years of data to go on, at most. Models seem to be converging on a threat from the FL big bend area to Louisiana. I lean towards a track that takes it to the Louisiana/Pensacola area and then it gets picked up to the NE in a weakness or approaching cold front.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#318 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 2:11 pm

I go with 0%-40% on next STWO. Those who want to make a guess of how the percents will be at 8 PM STWO go ahead.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#319 Postby Kazmit » Mon May 21, 2018 2:14 pm

:uarrow: I agree with 0%/40% but I don't think it'll be higher than that.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#320 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 21, 2018 2:19 pm

If trends continue hopefully holiday weekend won’t be a washout across SFL.
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