Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[cycloneye]

Let's open a thread for the area that the increasing consensus among the models show developing.There is convection in the SW Caribbean at this time so let's post away.

Edit: Changed title to Western Caribbean as the focus will be there as the models are showing.

[boca]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/G ... &length=24

It look hostile down there at the moment.

[NotSparta]

TCG is expected a few days from now, but the incipient gyre is beginning to form.



Loop

[HurricaneRyan]

This could potentially move into the EPAC and develop I bet.

[NotSparta]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=taw&band=13&length=24

It look hostile down there at the moment.

High shear right now, expected to reduce in the next few days however

[CyclonicFury]

I think we will likely see a broad low pressure area form over the NW Caribbean early next week, but I don't think we will see development until it is moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Thinking we will see a sheared TS at most IMO, mainly based on history.

[NDG]

Saved vis loop, noticeable vorticity NE of Costa Rica/Panama border.



12z GFS shows this area of moisture crawling WNW-NW towards the NW Caribbean over the next 7 days or so.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I don't see anything impressive on the GFS. Looks like a typical early season disorganized tropical storm. Nothing to get excited about.

[NDG]

12z Euro is so far looking like it will continue favoring development over the NW Caribbean vs EPAC.

[stormlover2013]

only thing I am looking at is the upper level pattern and how strong the ridge is and etc...

[SFLcane]

I don't see anything impressive on the GFS. Looks like a typical early season disorganized tropical storm. Nothing to get excited about.

Um here in SFL this could bring significant flooding problems...Also tornado threat could be there. Lets wait to see if something actually forms

[PSUHiker31]

I'm pretty entertained at the supreme instability in solutions from the FV3 vs the Euro and GFS

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro shifts to the right a bit and weaker out through 192 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 216 hours:

[gatorcane]

Both the GFS and ECMWF have this into South Florida at 216 hours with pretty remarkable agreement. The GFS is more SW Florida, stronger and slightly faster while the ECMWF is a bit more SE and weaker up through the southern tip of Florida. Pretty darn good agreement for this far out.

240 hour Euro, so it moves NNE through Southern Florida:

[Alyono]

EC does not exactly look all that tropical

[SFLcane]

In a sense gatorcane a big flood threat across SFL with a sloppy disorganized storm possibly not even purely tropical. Its may i don't think this a wind problem.

[Shell Mound]

EC does not exactly look all that tropical

I am actually skeptical about development. The EPS shows a significant anticyclonic wave-breaking event over the eastern U.S. in a week and substantial influence from the subtropical jet, which would tend to strongly shear out vorticity. That kind of pattern might be too unfavourable even for a subtropical/hybrid mess to develop, as there will be dry, continental air wrapping into the circulation, owing to the likelihood of a backdoor surface cold front stalling over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On the run, you can see very weak to nonexistent northerlies on the west side of the ostensible system, suggesting that a closed low might not even be present. Instead of development, I am leaning toward a strung-out series of vorticity lobes ahead of a cold front, possibly inducing locally heavy rainfall over Cuba and the Bahamas, but perhaps passing far enough to the east that the heaviest rainfall stays to the east of mainland South Florida and/or most of the Keys.

[stormlover2013]

yeah still has a ways to go, get to good ole model watch

[SoupBone]

only thing I am looking at is the upper level pattern and how strong the ridge is and etc...

I'm not suggesting anything, but Texas sure feels like it's under the Death Ridge right now. I'm guessing because of Harvey, most would welcome long term high pressure floating this summer. I'll trade heat for 50+ inches of rain.