Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

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Hurricane Mike
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Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#1 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:25 pm

I was thinking about what storms or hurricanes in past seasons really stick out in your mind as systems that never lived up to their hype?

I know Hurricane Debby in 2000 was really being hyped by people. Some were saying it was going to be the next Hurricane Andrew, and it never got above 85 mph winds and dissipated near Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Emily in 2005 was an amazing and record breaking Category 5 storm. It pushed ashore with Cat 4 intensity in the Yucatan and everyone treated Emily appropriately enough as a monster. But then it was kind of like, blah...not much damage...so many people were successfully evacuated nobody saw much and the name wasn't even retired. Plus Emily was soon overshadowed by Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Any other storms come to mind? Perhaps some from the 1980s or 1990s that people remember?
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#2 Postby Alyono » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:33 pm

Gloria
Gilbert in the USA
Emily (1993)
Floyd (Florida)
Debby (2000)
Lili (2002)
Frances
Katrina (yes, as bad as it was, it was not the doomsday, 20 miles west a different story)
Rita
Ernesto (2006)
Gustav
Ida (2009)
Earl (2010)
Igor (Bermuda)
Irene (Carolinas)
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#3 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:17 pm

Irma was an interesting storm. It crossed so many islands with 170-180 mph SUSTAINED winds with higher gusts. The damage was catastrophic, no doubt. BUT...wouldn't you expect Andrew-type damage, or even worse in some of those islands?

I mean, technically Andrew was weaker than Irma and the damage in the Virgin Islands was bad, but not as bad as I thought it might be.

It could be perhaps, concrete. Many of those structures in the Caribbean islands were totally rock-concrete. In Florida, with Andrew, you had more wood structures and mobile homes. Maybe that's the difference.

Also, Harvey's winds were very nasty, a Category 4 storm. But I was kind of surprised at the lack of extreme winds caught on video in the eyewall, unlike Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Perhaps the difference between 130 mph and 150 mph really is that drastic.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#4 Postby Javlin » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:24 pm

Alyono wrote:Katrina (yes, as bad as it was, it was not the doomsday, 20 miles west a different story)


I shall defer on that opinion I know it never hit the MS Gulf Coast with surge higher than some other storm :?: We lived through something.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#5 Postby Hammy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:48 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:Also, Harvey's winds were very nasty, a Category 4 storm. But I was kind of surprised at the lack of extreme winds caught on video in the eyewall, unlike Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Perhaps the difference between 130 mph and 150 mph really is that drastic.


I think the time of day has a lot to do with it--Harvey hit at night (as oddly most stronger hurricanes seem to) making Charley one of few strong landfalls I've seen with good lighting for the videos.

To the question itself, I think Joaquin would be a good example of one (for the US at least), given how many news outlets were talking ( some with almost absolutist certainty) that it would be a sort of Sandy repeat for the East Coast that instead missed the US entirely.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:16 pm

Eastern Pacific:
Javier 04
Otis 05
Emilia 06
Flossie 07 (to Hawaii)
Odile 08
Marty 09 (as an invest)
Frank 10
Rosa 12 (as an invest)
Gil 13
Henriette 13
Juliette 13 (as an invest)
Karina 14
Polo 14
Blanca 15 (storm was decent just many were expecting an upper end Cat 5)
Kilo 15 (as a TD/weak TS)
Nora 15 (as a TD/invest)
Orlene 16
Hilary 17

Atlantic:
Gamma 05
Chris 06
Ernesto 06
Gustav 08 (in the GOM)
Bill 09 (very early on)
Mathew 10
Don 11 (lol)
Irene 11
Nate ll (lol)
Rina 11
Ernesto 12 (early on)
Isaac 12
Lesile 12
Gabirelle 13
Humberto 13 (was suppose to be Nadine 12 2.0)
Cristobal 14 (as an invest)
Ingrid 13
Erika 15
Gabrielle 15
Joaquin 15 (to the eastern coast)
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#7 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:25 pm

As bad as was Irma including for FL, I think it was overhyped to some extent for FL because the GFS kept showing runs with SLP in the 880s to 890s hitting S FL after hitting Cuba. Do y'all remember? Examples of actual posts from 9/4/2017 at another BB about the GFS:

"WOW!! 881mb landfall MIA from the SOUTH?? don't know if I have ever seen that"

"Stays sub 930 the length of Florida and emerges back off shore in Northern Florida. Wow"

The vast majority of posters here believed it wouldn't be nearly that strong, but this undoubtedly lead to overhype by less knowledgeable GFS followers. Unfortunately, there will be other storms overdone by the GFS hitting land, which will lead to overhype. The May runs hitting FL with Alberto as a borderline cat 2-3 are a reminder of this GFS bias of overstrengthening.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#8 Postby Alyono » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:55 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:Irma was an interesting storm. It crossed so many islands with 170-180 mph SUSTAINED winds with higher gusts. The damage was catastrophic, no doubt. BUT...wouldn't you expect Andrew-type damage, or even worse in some of those islands?

I mean, technically Andrew was weaker than Irma and the damage in the Virgin Islands was bad, but not as bad as I thought it might be.

It could be perhaps, concrete. Many of those structures in the Caribbean islands were totally rock-concrete. In Florida, with Andrew, you had more wood structures and mobile homes. Maybe that's the difference.

Also, Harvey's winds were very nasty, a Category 4 storm. But I was kind of surprised at the lack of extreme winds caught on video in the eyewall, unlike Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Perhaps the difference between 130 mph and 150 mph really is that drastic.


you didn't see Charley type winds in Rockport because there were "only" cat 2 winds in Rockport. The cat 4 winds were north over a wildlife preserve
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#9 Postby Alyono » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:55 pm

Javlin wrote:
Alyono wrote:Katrina (yes, as bad as it was, it was not the doomsday, 20 miles west a different story)


I shall defer on that opinion I know it never hit the MS Gulf Coast with surge higher than some other storm :?: We lived through something.


Katrina in MS lived up to the hype for sure

However, we didn't have the collapsing sky scrapers that were predicted the day before landfall
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#10 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:20 pm

Javlin wrote:
Alyono wrote:Katrina (yes, as bad as it was, it was not the doomsday, 20 miles west a different story)


I shall defer on that opinion I know it never hit the MS Gulf Coast with surge higher than some other storm :?: We lived through something.


Yes, the MS coast was devastated by Katrina, no hype there. My mother lived on the MS coast back then. Her home was flooded but not destroyed. I think he may be referring to the pre-storm statement about New Orleans - the downtown buildings swaying to the point of collapse. If Katrina had struck west of New Orleans as a Cat 5 then the damage would have been considerably worse across the New Orleans area, perhaps tens of thousands dead.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#11 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:40 pm

If Camille were to hit the same place now with all the build up and higher population in that area, I'd hate to see the results.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#12 Postby Javlin » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:52 pm

Alyono wrote:
Javlin wrote:
Alyono wrote:Katrina (yes, as bad as it was, it was not the doomsday, 20 miles west a different story)


I shall defer on that opinion I know it never hit the MS Gulf Coast with surge higher than some other storm :?: We lived through something.


Katrina in MS lived up to the hype for sure

However, we didn't have the collapsing sky scrapers that were predicted the day before landfall


It's just or proximity to the "Big Easy" that makes the MSGC become a sidebar to a degree.I think like much of the discussion after Katrina and NO the MRGO is a big problem not just for NO but the state in general but that's a whole story within itself. ;)
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#13 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:08 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:Irma was an interesting storm. It crossed so many islands with 170-180 mph SUSTAINED winds with higher gusts. The damage was catastrophic, no doubt. BUT...wouldn't you expect Andrew-type damage, or even worse in some of those islands?

I mean, technically Andrew was weaker than Irma and the damage in the Virgin Islands was bad, but not as bad as I thought it might be.

It could be perhaps, concrete. Many of those structures in the Caribbean islands were totally rock-concrete. In Florida, with Andrew, you had more wood structures and mobile homes. Maybe that's the difference.

Also, Harvey's winds were very nasty, a Category 4 storm. But I was kind of surprised at the lack of extreme winds caught on video in the eyewall, unlike Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Perhaps the difference between 130 mph and 150 mph really is that drastic.


The damage that Irma caused in the Virgin Islands was as bad as Andrew if not worser. Most people have misconcesptions on the damage potential of major hurricanes due to misleading hype from the media. No you won't see concrete reinforced buildings flattened by winds even in the most intense tropical cyclones worldwide. It is the surge that causes catastrapic damage to buildings, not the winds.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#14 Postby Alyono » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:13 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:Irma was an interesting storm. It crossed so many islands with 170-180 mph SUSTAINED winds with higher gusts. The damage was catastrophic, no doubt. BUT...wouldn't you expect Andrew-type damage, or even worse in some of those islands?

I mean, technically Andrew was weaker than Irma and the damage in the Virgin Islands was bad, but not as bad as I thought it might be.

It could be perhaps, concrete. Many of those structures in the Caribbean islands were totally rock-concrete. In Florida, with Andrew, you had more wood structures and mobile homes. Maybe that's the difference.

Also, Harvey's winds were very nasty, a Category 4 storm. But I was kind of surprised at the lack of extreme winds caught on video in the eyewall, unlike Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Perhaps the difference between 130 mph and 150 mph really is that drastic.


The damage that Irma caused in the Virgin Islands was as bad as Andrew if not worser. Most people have misconcesptions on the damage potential of major hurricanes due to misleading hype from the media. No you won't see concrete reinforced buildings flattened by winds even in the most intense tropical cyclones worldwide. It is the surge that causes catastrapic damage to buildings, not the winds.


Haiyan sure flattened re-enforced concrete buildings. Tacloban just didn't see those winds. Tacloban got a cat 3
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#15 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:54 pm

Alyono wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:Irma was an interesting storm. It crossed so many islands with 170-180 mph SUSTAINED winds with higher gusts. The damage was catastrophic, no doubt. BUT...wouldn't you expect Andrew-type damage, or even worse in some of those islands?

I mean, technically Andrew was weaker than Irma and the damage in the Virgin Islands was bad, but not as bad as I thought it might be.

It could be perhaps, concrete. Many of those structures in the Caribbean islands were totally rock-concrete. In Florida, with Andrew, you had more wood structures and mobile homes. Maybe that's the difference.

Also, Harvey's winds were very nasty, a Category 4 storm. But I was kind of surprised at the lack of extreme winds caught on video in the eyewall, unlike Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Perhaps the difference between 130 mph and 150 mph really is that drastic.


The damage that Irma caused in the Virgin Islands was as bad as Andrew if not worser. Most people have misconcesptions on the damage potential of major hurricanes due to misleading hype from the media. No you won't see concrete reinforced buildings flattened by winds even in the most intense tropical cyclones worldwide. It is the surge that causes catastrapic damage to buildings, not the winds.


Haiyan sure flattened re-enforced concrete buildings. Tacloban just didn't see those winds. Tacloban got a cat 3

Then who got cat 5 winds?
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#16 Postby Alyono » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:18 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Alyono wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
The damage that Irma caused in the Virgin Islands was as bad as Andrew if not worser. Most people have misconcesptions on the damage potential of major hurricanes due to misleading hype from the media. No you won't see concrete reinforced buildings flattened by winds even in the most intense tropical cyclones worldwide. It is the surge that causes catastrapic damage to buildings, not the winds.


Haiyan sure flattened re-enforced concrete buildings. Tacloban just didn't see those winds. Tacloban got a cat 3

Then who got cat 5 winds?


farther south. Tacloban was outside of the RMW by about 8-10 miles
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#17 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:54 am

LarryWx wrote:As bad as was Irma including for FL, I think it was overhyped to some extent for FL because the GFS kept showing runs with SLP in the 880s to 890s hitting S FL after hitting Cuba. Do y'all remember? Examples of actual posts from 9/4/2017 at another BB about the GFS:

"WOW!! 881mb landfall MIA from the SOUTH?? don't know if I have ever seen that"

"Stays sub 930 the length of Florida and emerges back off shore in Northern Florida. Wow"

The vast majority of posters here believed it wouldn't be nearly that strong, but this undoubtedly lead to overhype by less knowledgeable GFS followers. Unfortunately, there will be other storms overdone by the GFS hitting land, which will lead to overhype. The May runs hitting FL with Alberto as a borderline cat 2-3 are a reminder of this GFS bias of overstrengthening.


Well, if I remember correctly, there was a time when Irma wasn't really supposed to hit Cuba, and then cross that area in the FL Straits that was supposed to be extremely favorable for historic intensification, before essentially taking the #1 worst-case-scenario type approach for Miami. I forget which day it was, but one of those days, the forecast was looking so dire, I could barely eat or sleep.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#18 Postby Kazmit » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:49 am

Definitely Joaquin. Went from the possibility of a catastrophic hurricane into the northeast to a Bermuda threat, and the damage here was still minimal.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#19 Postby shah83 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:06 am

I think it would be worth its own thread to talk about that last nudge of the subtropical ridge when it comes to Irma. What the damage would have been like, it's impact on Juan and Maria later, etc.
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Re: Hurricanes that never lived up the hype?

#20 Postby SootyTern » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:36 am

Patrick99 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:As bad as was Irma including for FL, I think it was overhyped to some extent for FL because the GFS kept showing runs with SLP in the 880s to 890s hitting S FL after hitting Cuba. Do y'all remember? Examples of actual posts from 9/4/2017 at another BB about the GFS:

"WOW!! 881mb landfall MIA from the SOUTH?? don't know if I have ever seen that"

"Stays sub 930 the length of Florida and emerges back off shore in Northern Florida. Wow"

The vast majority of posters here believed it wouldn't be nearly that strong, but this undoubtedly lead to overhype by less knowledgeable GFS followers. Unfortunately, there will be other storms overdone by the GFS hitting land, which will lead to overhype. The May runs hitting FL with Alberto as a borderline cat 2-3 are a reminder of this GFS bias of overstrengthening.


Well, if I remember correctly, there was a time when Irma wasn't really supposed to hit Cuba, and then cross that area in the FL Straits that was supposed to be extremely favorable for historic intensification, before essentially taking the #1 worst-case-scenario type approach for Miami. I forget which day it was, but one of those days, the forecast was looking so dire, I could barely eat or sleep.



Think that was Wed or Thursday. I know I wasn't a fan of the Bahamas>Key Largo>Homestead>Miami>FTL>WPB track as a huge Cat 5 and was trying to wrap my brain around the idea of an impact that would be worse than Andrew. And that saltwater could come to my house 7 miles inland!
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