Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

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cycloneye
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Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:49 pm

I think is time to have a thread for the SW Caribbean area that mainly GFS has been showing development for many runs and CMC has been showing it too. Although there has not been mentioned in the TWO's,there is an incipient area of convection so that is good to have the new thread.So let's see how things turn out about this if it develops or not so post away the model runs and comments.

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#2 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:55 pm

Some convection bubbling

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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#3 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:56 pm

I was wondering when you would do that. Lol
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I was wondering when you would do that. Lol


One criteria for making a thread has been met finnally and I am following the S2K order to make a thread. :D

See here :rarrow: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634&p=2126596#p2126596
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I was wondering when you would do that. Lol


One criteria for making a thread has been met finnally and I am following the S2K order to make a thread. :D

See here :rarrow: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634&p=2126596#p2126596


Yep, and i bet the nhc follows suit .. assuming convection persists overnight
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#6 Postby Twisted-core » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:09 pm

GFS 18z was looking interesting with the monsoon flow still attached in GOM.

Image
https://imgur.com/VXZz0Ql

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https://imgur.com/lMb6QWV


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https://imgur.com/HpMvCFx




EPS
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https://imgur.com/exvuU1r
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#7 Postby psyclone » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:15 pm

Meanwhile the NHC continues to say...buzzers. As a novice, the fact they can't squeeze out one thin dime (10% weak lemon over 5 days) speaks volumes. Let's see if they can toss us something in the next day or two..
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#8 Postby Ian2401 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:27 pm

psyclone wrote:Meanwhile the NHC continues to say...buzzers. As a novice, the fact they can't squeeze out one thin dime (10% weak lemon over 5 days) speaks volumes. Let's see if they can toss us something in the next day or two..

I think it highlights just how little stock they put into the GFS model...and to be honest I can't blame them. The GFS is basically a joke at this point if it's wrong about this storm.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#9 Postby stormreader » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman22 wrote:The 18z GFS looks more realistic with the strength of the system.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018061018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_30.png[/ig]


yeah it spends a lot more time over land. which is likely the case given the set up./

That’s where some of you on this board can help with understanding how well structured this system will be (assuming development). Sometimes even depressions over land can have a well organized structure that enables these systems to develop more rapidly than expected when back over water. One element might be the already apparent vorticity which you have commented on and is forecast for the next48 hours in the SW Caribbean.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#10 Postby Ian2401 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:50 pm

Image
Convection still persisting
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#11 Postby stormreader » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:53 pm

NDG wrote:Convection and vorticiy have really increased during the day today.
Saved vis loop:
Image

Yes. Some systems seem to have that extra amount of energy or vorticity even when in an embryonic stage. Models that called for a major in the GOM (and that may not happen due to land interaction etc...) may have been picking up on quite a bit of latent potential ( for whatever reason) in this particular June system.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#12 Postby stormreader » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:02 pm

Ian2401 wrote:
psyclone wrote:Meanwhile the NHC continues to say...buzzers. As a novice, the fact they can't squeeze out one thin dime (10% weak lemon over 5 days) speaks volumes. Let's see if they can toss us something in the next day or two..

I think it highlights just how little stock they put into the GFS model...and to be honest I can't blame them. The GFS is basically a joke at this point if it's wrong about this storm.

I’ve never been a GFS fan. But it did a solid job with Alberto in May. I had to admit it. Now we have this potential June system. The GFS is not alone in forecasting tropical development from the EPAC/ Carribean monsoonal flow pattern. Alberto came from a similar gyre or area. I think the percentages are in favor of development. Could be seeing actual evidence of development right now in SW Carribean. Let’s see.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:23 pm

@webberweather
Twin TUTTs in opposing hemispheres are currently coupled to the leading edge of a large CCKW entering stage left from the NE Pacific. The TUTTs further reinforce large-scale upper level divergence and forcing associated w/ the CCKW and could help spur TCG in the Atlantic. Classic


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 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1005864245895094273


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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#14 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:23 pm

CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#15 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:29 pm

ROCK wrote:CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..


A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#16 Postby Alyono » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:38 pm

SFLcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..


A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.


stop being married to the Euro

how many times does it have to screw up a monsoon genesis before people understand that this is one of the model's biggest weaknesses?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:40 pm

Alyono wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..


A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.


stop being married to the Euro

how many times does it have to screw up a monsoon genesis before people understand that this is one of the model's biggest weaknesses?

Are there any examples of monsoon genesis storms in the Atlantic in the past that the Euro missed?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:41 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Alyono wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.


stop being married to the Euro

how many times does it have to screw up a monsoon genesis before people understand that this is one of the model's biggest weaknesses?

Are there any examples of monsoon genesis storms in the Atlantic in the past that the Euro missed?

countless...
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:52 pm

Ok,that is all about sidebar issues. Any opinions about Eric Webb's message?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean

#20 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok,that is all about sidebar issues. Any opinions about Eric Webb's message?


the ingredients are there. just that silly land stuff getting in the way lol
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