Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM stalls at Texas coast and blows it up!!

[TheAustinMan]

Airmass RGB look at the disturbance, though right now what appears to be a mid-level vort/MCV seems to be stealing the show over the surface vorticity. Radar from San Andres overlaid. You can see the trough and dry conditions aloft over in the Western Caribbean.

341 KB. Source: Airmass RGB data plot generated myself. San Andres radar data from http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/radar/index/aoi/ADZ/Reflectividad%20de%20Base%200.5%20deg?scroll_x=0&scroll_y=228&menu1=%23&menu1=%5C%22%23%5C%22

[Tireman4]

06Z NAVGEM stalls at Texas coast and blows it up!!

I love the NAVY sir. ")

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET has no TC.

[Siker]

06Z NAVGEM stalls at Texas coast and blows it up!!

And the 12z NAVGEM just has a weak low in the BoC .

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,maybe a mention? So far no TWO as they haved released them very very early in past packages. If they dont mention,at least they are watching and discussimg among them.

[LarryWx]

Hey folks,maybe a mention? So far no TWO as they haved released them very very early in past packages. If they dont mention,at least they are watching and discussimg among them.

The lack of even a mention/10% has been underdoing the risk imo. A small risk doesn't mean no risk. They seem to be acting as if it is black and white. Let's see what they do here shortly.

[northjaxpro]

X is where I marked the MLC seen on radar off of the coast of Nicaragua tracking NNE.

https://i.imgur.com/EEyArlW.gif

That is about right NDG..A very prominent MLC there just off the Nicaragua coast.

[cycloneye]

Here it is!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[LarryWx]

Perfect from Mr. Stewart.

[Siker]

Looks like they tagged the trailing piece of vorticity rather than the one with the clear MLC further west. GFS has been unclear as to what actually will develop out of this mess.

[jaguars_22]

Why they mark it so far down in the Caribbean??

[LarryWx]

Why they mark it so far down in the Caribbean??

I think because that's near the tropical wave, itself.

[Aric Dunn]

If you are curious.. the circ is circled in my image i posted.earlier. its just north of the coast of panama. Run the loop..

[ROCK]

Nice NHC... finally the mention..now see if it continues to consolidate. Not bad looking right now...yes the NAV trended lower

[CyclonicFury]

This reminds me a bit of Barry from 2013.

[stormlover2013]

Will we get a invest soon ?

[Aric Dunn]

IT matches well with the current surface winds. could also be multiple vorts out there. but as of right now there is a closed wind field and convection firing over that vort as we speak.

[gatorcane]

Euro remains dead as a doornail, I would say. Also it seems to get buried in northern Mexico this time out through day 5, so while no rainfall map available on TT site, looks like less rain for Texas on this run:

[GCANE]

Wednesday Morning at DMAX may be the best shot for genesis.